Game Preview: OSU at Illinois

Dave Thurman (6:55 pm)

Buckeye players must wonder what they have done to deserve their fate in 2011. Not only have they dealt with losing a coach, player suspensions (some bordering on the bizarre), and a host of untimely injuries, but now they get to make the trip to flat, barren, windy Champaign, Illinois for the second straight year and third time in the past four seasons.  What a prize!

No doubt about it, though, this is not your father's Illinois' squad.  After years of squaring off against poor to average Illini teams, the Buckeyes will find the 2011 edition to be talented and tough, entering the contest undefeated and ranked sixteenth in the nation.  They are also hungry for success against Ohio State, realizing it has been twenty years since they got the best of the Scarlet and Gray in Champaign.  Not exactly what the doctor ordered.  So how will it go?

When Illinois has the ball:

Any description of the Illinois offense begins with quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, who was good last year as a freshman, but has become a force with the gained experience he received. He can throw (206 ypg, 66.7%, 10 tds, 3 ints) and run (347 yards and 4 tds) which should put the fear of God into a Buckeye D that has struggled mightily at times.  Going into the season, opponents knew that Scheelhaase was going to be a handful, but figured that the Illini would struggle at tailback without Mikel Leshoure, who took his skills to the NFL.  Well, guess again.  Senior Troy Pollard is averaging 9.8 yards per carry, while freshman Donovan Young manages 6.7 each time he totes the rock.  Together they run for more than 110 yards per game, and when you throw Scheelhaase into the mix, plus senior Jason Ford, you get a team that averages over 226 yards per game on the ground, to go with 222 per contest in the air.  Pick your poison.  However, before deciding to not even turn on the television, understand that the Illini have done all that against the likes of Arkansas St., South Dakota St., Western Michigan, Northwestern, and Indiana.  Only Arizona State qualifies as a true quality opponent, and while that was an impressive victory, Illinois got them at home. 

Obviously new offensive coordinator Paul Petrino is licking his chops after watching Nebraska slice apart the Silver Bullets in the second half of last week's contest in Lincoln. He also has to feel good about the fact that there is no true pass rush to worry about.  But while an improved, athletic quarterback should strike some fear into OSU, this is still a decent defense, that is capable of putting up a fight.

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Illinois will come out running the football, attempting to gash the OSU D, operating out of a spread.  The key will be for the oft-maligned Buckeye linebackers to get off blocks and make plays.  While I don't think Illinois has any one running back who will have a field day, Scheelhaase is cause for concern. It will be imperative for the Silver Bullets to be physical and play smart, assignment-based football.  If they can succesfully stop the run, and make Illinois one dimensional, it might not be such a long day.  But even that is no party, because the Illini boast a talented wideout in A.J. Jenkins (46, 815, 7).  He is one of the best in the conference, if not the nation, and Ohio State would be wise to double team him as much as possible, especially considering that no other player on the roster has more than 13 catches.  Stop Jenkins and Scheelhaase, and you can probably celebrate a victory.  But that is asking a great deal.  My guess is we'll see a lot of give and take here, with both the Illini offense and the Buckeye defense having their moments.  Forcing a few turnovers might be the best hope for winning the ultimate battle. 

When Ohio State has the ball:

Believe it or not, I think Ohio State can move the ball on Illinois, if (and this is a big if) Braxton Miller is decently healthy and can stay in the game.  Although Illinois is surrendering just under 300 yards a game, that has been against mostly weak opposition as noted earlier.  They have not seen an offensive line as big or physical as the Buckeyes bring into this contest, and with Mike Adams back for his second game and Boom Herron added to the mix, there is no reason OSU should not be able to run the ball. Illinois will try and stack the line, but a steady diet of Herron and Hyde (with a little Miller and Hall added in) might wear them down by the fourth quarter.  For that reason it is essential for the Buckeyes to not get too far behind, and not turn the ball over. 

Obviously, if the Illini put eight in the box, Miller must be able to hit a few passes.  Last week Philly Brown made it clear that he can run by defensive backs, and can make some plays for a depleted receving corps. Outside of Brown and Stoneburner, fans are still waiting for someone to emerge, although Devin Smith has had his moments.  It won't matter, though, if the line can't give Miller time to throw (as was the case against Michigan State).  Illinois will look to bring the heat, led by Whitney Mercilus, who is leading the nation in sacks with 8.5. Teammate Michael Buchanan has another 4.5 himself, so it will be difficult to keep the seat of Miller's pants clean.  How well the improved line does in that regard may hold the key to success or lack of it for the offensive unit.

Of course the $64,000 question is who will play of Miller is hurt or unable to move well on his injured ankle.  It would be hard to find a fan who isn't praying the answer is Kenny Guiton, but how well will he do in a hostile environment?  Hopefully we don't have to find out, but it is yet another reason to tune it this week. 

Dave's Wildcards:

Beyond the return of Boom Herron (which could be a huge lift both physically and psychologically) I see three factors that could influence the game:
-The weather.  It is always windy at Champaign.  Always! Although it is supposed to be sunny and mild, the wind could have a major impact on throwing the ball.  If it becomes a physical game, with lots of up the middle running, it might favor Ohio State.
-The setting. While most teams play better at home, I thought OSU came out poised and relaxed last week at Lincoln.  Young teams that are under fire, facing media and fan scrutiny, sometimes perform better away from home, especially if they embrace an "us against the world" mentality. 
-Special teams.  Ohio State has dangerous return men, led by Jordan Hall, plus a good punter, and an improving kicker.  The Illini have a very good kicker, but the punter has been mediocre, and they have yet to muster any kind of return game.  This could be a huge plus for Ohio State. 

Score Prediciton:

Dave: Illinois 24, Ohio State 20
Drew: Ohio State 23, Illinois 21