NFL Picks Week 6: Detroit Lions Aren't a Guarantee vs. San Francisco 49ers

This season, the 5-0 Detroit Lions have been the poster child for surprising success in the NFL. 

The San Francisco 49ers might have something to say about that.

Now 4-1 on the season, the Niners have been successful against teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers who were predestined to make the playoffs.

While the Lions appear to be the favorites in this matchup, there is no denying that another upset by the 49ers is well within reach.

Turnover Battle

So far this season, the Detroit Lions have been fairly good about not turning the ball over.  If they want to win on Sunday, they will have to continue that trend. 

The San Francisco 49ers have been simply outstanding at creating turnovers (plus-10 turnover ratio). 

In fact, it may have been the biggest reason why they have won games they were projected not to.  Against a talented-yet-underachieving Tampa Bay Buccaneers team, the 49ers were able to not only win the turnover battle but also convert one of those turnovers into a pick-six.

Lions’ Running Backs vs. 49ers’ Linebackers

Aside from a few big plays by Jahvid Best, the running backs for the Detroit Lions haven’t really made an impact.

This could be a problem.

Coming into this game, the San Fransisco 49ers have been absolutely dominant against the run (76.4 ypg).  Linebackers Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman have been a large part of that.

If Best can continue to reel off game-changing runs like he did last week against the Chicago Bears, then the Lions should be sitting pretty in this one. 

Just don’t count on it.

QB Alex Smith

Wow.  I never thought I’d see the day where Alex Smith becomes a factor in a game. 

Alas, that has been the case this season, and the Detroit Lions should be worried. 

The San Francisco 49ers’ quarterback has been surprisingly efficient this season, throwing for 965 yards and accounting for eight total touchdowns while only throwing one interception. 

Now, the Lions have been better against the run than most predicted, but much of that has to do with the take-aways they create.  If they can’t keep that up, then Smith could have his way with the secondary.

Time of Possession

Like turnovers, time of possession is a huge part of winning a game, although it doesn’t receive as much attention.

So far this season, the San Francisco 49ers have been excellent at controlling the football and winning the time of possession battle.

That is in large thanks to a resurgent Frank Gore, who seems to have found his swagger after struggling to run the ball early in the season.

The Detroit Lions’ linebackers are going to have to take Gore out of the game if they hope to weaken the 49ers’ ground-and-pound philosophy and control the clock.