NFL Predictions Week 6: Handicapping Division Leaders' Chances To Make Playoffs

I have bad news for the 11 NFL teams currently in or tied for first place in their division.

Some of you aren't going to make it.

Last year three teams with division leads after Week 5 missed out on the playoffs. The year before that it was four, the year before that three, the year before that three again and, well, you get the point.

Five good weeks make no guarantees for the games ahead.

Who's a postseason lock and who will shake their head at an opportunity missed?

11. Washington Redskins

The man in the above picture tells you all you need to know about the Washington Redskins' playoff hopes.

In a balanced division the Redskins will need starting quarterback Rex Grossman to at least remain serviceable throughout the rest of the year, and on that account no division-leading team is on shakier ground.

Grossman has more turnovers than touchdowns this year, and that follows a career-long pattern of mistake-making.

Even San Francisco signal-caller Alex Smith has done a better job managing the game and limiting turnovers than Grossman. He's a risk to blow it every week, and that will cost a strong defensive squad a chance at the postseason.

I've also yet to see the Washington Redskins really dominate an opponent. Until they do that I remain skeptic.

A contest against the reeling Philadelphia Eagles this week gives the 'Skins a chance to prove me wrong.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 35 percent

10. Tennessee Titans

Last week's stinker in Pittsburgh throws the Tennessee Titans' postseason hopes into serious doubt.

A weak division provides hope, but I'm not convinced the Titans are good enough to capitalize on the down year. One week after fellow first-place division-rival Houston smacked the Steelers in the mouth, Tennessee looked woefully overmatched against the same foe.

Ultimately, with enough strong teams in the AFC East, North and West to fill the bracket, I think Tennessee needs to win their division to make the playoffs. Right now, the Houston Texans just look stronger.

By the numbers Houston has a better running game, better defense and an almost identical passing attack. Even with injuries to Andre Johnson and Mario Williams I like their chances better.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 45 percent

9. Buffalo Bills

Does anyone besides me think the Buffalo Bills got away with one last Sunday against the Eagles?

The Philadelphia Eagles win that game if they can avoid any one of the many mistakes made. Instead, the Bills took advantage of five turnovers and snuck off with a seven-point home victory.

From Buffalo's perspective, that's not a sustainable model for success.

If I'm a Bills fan two numbers worry me: 185, as in the number of yards the Bills have been outgained by this year; and 11, as in the Bills' turnover differential.

Something has to give there. The Bills can't count on four-interception games by quarterbacks. No team can, no matter how opportunistic the defense.

There are positives. The Bills are 4-1 with three of their toughest games behind them. Anyone watching this team can tell Ryan Fitzpatrick has the chops to stick in this league and Fred Jackson is one of the more talented backs around.

That won't be enough in a tough division unless the Bills can fix a defense that ranks 30th overall in yards allowed.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 50 percent

8. Houston Texans

The Houston Texans' playoff chances took a big hit when they lost OLB Mario Williams for the rest of the year and star wideout Andre Johnson for the foreseeable future.

Still, the Texans play in a weak division and of all the 3-2 teams in the NFL probably have the most legitimate argument that they could be 5-0. Blown leads against the New Orleans Saints and Oakland Raiders hurt plenty, but they also prove Houston has talent to compete every week.

I think that's enough to make them the favorite in the AFC South, even without some of their big stars. Quarterback Matt Schaub and a powerful running game will keep this group churning forward.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 55 percent

7. Baltimore Ravens

Like earth tremors and bad breath, Joe Flacco makes me nervous.

So far the young quarterback is completing less than 50 percent of his passes and whatever progress he was making the first few years seems to have stalled. With all the big names the Ravens have on offense, that development should worry the Baltimore faithful.

What shouldn't worry them is a defense as stout as ever and a Ray Rice-led rushing attack that keeps the pressure off Joe Cool.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will stick around all year, but right now the Ravens are the favorite to win the division. Even if they don't, a modest 7-5 finish would probably be enough to earn them a wild-card berth.

I don't usually bet on shaky signal-callers, but a strong defensive team like Baltimore is built to compensate for Flacco's errors.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 60 percent

6. San Francisco 49ers

Surprised to see San Francisco this high? Me too.

But it all comes down to math.

The first team to eight wins will win the NFC West, and the 49ers need only go 4-7 the rest of the way to reach that mark. Their schedule includes five more divisional games as well as a home game against the Cleveland Browns.

You see my point?

Even with the league's 29th-rated passing attack the 49ers can see a way to the NFC West crown. Combine a stiff defense with a weak division and a good coach, mix well and you have a playoff berth.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 65 percent

5. Detroit Lions

I'll give you two factors working against the first Detroit Lions playoff berth since 1999.

1) In a division with the Green Bay Packers, they're probably playing for the Wild Card. That means the field of teams they're competing with for a spot just went from two to about five.

2) They're the Detroit Lions.

As great a story as this 5-0 start is, and it's a great frickin' story, we've yet to see this group of guys sustain success over the course of the season. Maybe they can, but it's hard to know. That creeping sense of doubt hurts their chances in my mind.

It's also worth noting that the Lions had to come from behind in each of their three road games this year (Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Dallas) to earn victories. At some point those early holes will bury them.

Still, they're 5-0 and likely need only five or six more wins to earn a berth. Play around .500 the rest of the way and Detroit will qualify.

That's as strange to write as it is sweet to hear. The Lions are breathing life into this NFL season and this non-partisan observer hopes they keep the momentum.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 70 percent

4. San Diego Chargers

It hasn't been pretty this year, but the San Diego Charges finally have some September wins to their name.

Isn't that what this team needed?

In past years this team has dominated opponents only to lose close games, especially in the early parts of the schedule. This year they've struggled through some off days and scratched out close wins.

Within that the Chargers also rank near the top of the league in yards gained and yards allowed, both signs of good things to come.

With last year's division champion, the Kansas City Chiefs, clearly out of the picture and the Denver Broncos struggling to stay afloat, the AFC West boils down to the Chargers and the inexperienced Oakland Raiders.

I like the Chargers in that fight.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 80 percent

3. New Orleans Saints

As long as Drew Brees keeps posting 300-yard passing days (he's only missed the mark once this year) New Orleans will cruise into the playoffs comfortably.

Helping the Saints' cause is the surprising weakness of their division. Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay look worse than last year and last-place Carolina doesn't quite have the form of a contender.

It's hard to see any of those three toppling the Saints, whose only loss was a squeaker on the road to Green Bay.

New Orleans simply has too much offense to lose, and a first-round bye looks like a real possibility.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 90 percent

2. Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFL and only the second-most likely to make the playoffs.

The paradox follows from the fact the Packers play in a division with the 5-0 Detroit Lions and two under-.500 teams, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings, with over-.500 talent. Top to bottom it's a tough division and the Packers will bear that burden all year.

It also merits mention that the Packers have never won the NFC North under Aaron Rodgers' command and haven't yet shown us they're capable of a 13- or 14-win season.

This looks the year they establish their dominance, but until then I consider them less of a playoff lock than the guys at No. 1.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 95 percent

1. New England Patriots

File this under "all you need to know."

In his nine full seasons at the helm, Tom Brady's New England Patriots have only missed the playoffs once.

Barring a major injury, New England will qualify for the playoffs in 2011. Their offense is simply too dominant to lose more than a handful of games. No level of defensive ineptitude can change that.

In a league predicated on uncertainty, the Patriots are a rare safe bet.

Percent Chance To Make Playoffs: 98 percent