NFL Picks Week 6: Assessing Probability That Each Away-Team Wins

Defending your home turf is critical, but gaining a few surprising road victories is just as important in a push for the playoffs. 

We've got some big clashes in Week 6 and I'm here to break down the possibility of each road team picking up a win.

Let's take a look...

San Francisco at Detroit

The 49ers have a solid defense that surely will be tested against Calvin Johnson and Co. I like what they've done on offense in terms of efficiency, but are they good enough to score with the Lions?

Probability: 30%

St Louis at Green Bay

I don't see a way the Rams leave Green Bay with a win. Too much Aaron Rodgers, plus the Packers are on a roll. 

Probability: 2%

Carolina at Atlanta 

I think Cam Newton can translate a big game into a big win in this one. The Falcons' defense isn't playing anywhere near last year's level and the offense isn't as consistent as it's been in years past.

A shootout in Atlanta.

Probability: 50%

Indianapolis at Cincinnati

We were ready to bury the Bengals after their 1-2 start, now they've rattled off two straight wins and Andy Dalton is looking more comfortable than ever. Cincinnati's defense will be too much for Curtis Painter and the Colts

Probability: 30%

Buffalo at New York Giants

The Bills come in a little banged up, especially at the wide receiver position, but the Giants have more injury issues. With the Giants' tendency to turn the ball over and the Bills affinity to take the ball away, Buffalo has a good chance in this one. 

Probability: 65%

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

The Steelers are back and I don't see them experiencing a letdown against a rookie quarterback at home. 

Probability: 15%

Philadelphia at Washington

I think the Eagles are done, but I don't think they're going 1-15 on the season. They have more talent from top to bottom than the Redskins do and I think they finally fix their turnover problem. 

Probability: 65%

Houston at Baltimore

The Texans seem to struggle in crunch time and the absence of Andre Johnson will really hurt in this one. Baltimore's defensive front will generate pressure on Matt Schaub all afternoon and the fact that Mario Williams is sidelined will allow Joe Flacco to get more comfortable in the pocket. 

Probability: 40%

Cleveland at Oakland

Similar teams to me. Both have good running games, OK defenses and "game-managing" quarterbacks. I like the Raiders at home who are coming off a huge road win last week. 

Probability: 45%

Dallas at New England

Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will be able to confuse Tom Brady and the Patriots secondary is the worst in football. They aren't a lock to win, but have a fighting chance in this one. 

Probability: 55%

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Yes, the Saints defense is suspect. However, with Drew Brees, you can never count the Saints out of any game. Can the Bucs stay with New Orleans' high-powered attack?

Probability: 70%

Minnesota at Chicago

Adrian Peterson and the Vikings have a great shot in this one. They'll be able to pressure Jay Cutler and should be able to run the football with ease. 

Probability: 60%

Miami at New York Jets

The Jets are coming off consecutive defeats at the hands of two good clubs, but are starting to get more consistent running the football. Too much defense for the Dolphins to handle. 

Probability: 30%