NFL Picks Week 6: Why the Falcons and Giants Will Cover Comfortably

Two teams coming off tough losses in Week 5 are severely undervalued this week. Time to jump on their generous spreads before Vegas adjusts.

Atlanta Falcons -4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons came out strong against the Green Bay Packers before essentially shutting down offensively.

QB Matt Ryan was off, both mentally and with his throws.

I don’t anticipate this happening for a second straight game.

Top playmaker Roddy White is finally coming around and Julio Jones is making strides.

The big issue with the offense is the slow start to the running game. Michael Turner isn’t finding the hole and it’s making them a bit one-dimensional.

Enter the Carolina run defense.

The unit ranks 27th in the league against the run and has shown no signs of getting any better. This will be the big difference in the game as the Falcons find balance in their offense and control the clock.

Cam Newton is due to have a game where everything goes wrong, and what better time to have it than in the super loud Georgia Dome?

Prediction: Falcons 34, Bucs 23

Key Trends:

Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NFC South.

Falcons are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game.

Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

New York Giants -3 vs. Buffalo Bills

 Yes, the Bills are for real after beating the Eagles, but the Giants aren’t frauds for losing to Seattle.

Sure, it was a set back, but the Giants are historically very good coming off a tough loss under Tom Coughlin.

The Giants still dealing with multiple injuries on both sides of the ball, but are still a playoff-caliber team because of Eli Manning and a defensive front four that is quite possibly one of the best in the NFL yet again.

They will bring the heat on Ryan Fitzpatrick, a QB that tends to struggle under pressure. Expect Fitzy to turn the ball over more than once and the Giants will cash in.

The Bills defense is not good; in fact, it’s awful. It's currently 26th in the league in passing yards and 29th in rushing.

Expect the Giants to kill them through the air and finally get the ground game going against one of the worst units in the league.

Prediction: Giants 37, Bills 27           

Key Trends:

Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.

Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Giants are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games in October.

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com.)