College Football's Conference Championship Weekend Serves As Playoff Semifinals

By Nostradamus

Well, here we are, Conference Championship Weekend in College Football. Man, does time just fly by or is it just me?

With only two meaningful games left on the slate, I will solely concentrate on the two championship games that matter this weekend. The SEC and Big 12 championships.

For those pining for a playoff? 

Well...we kind of have one right now.

Call this the Final Four, since it is readily apparent that the winners of these contests will advance to the BCS title game. (As long as Oklahoma beats Missouri, of course.)

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP

Alabama vs. Florida (- 10)

The overall No. 1 ranked team, Alabama, finds themselves as 10-point underdogs in their contest with the high octane Gators this weekend in the SEC Championship game.

What most will notice is the high-flying Gator offense that has been on a serious run of simply humbling their opponents over the past couple of months.

On the other side is a supposedly plodding and throwback team from Alabama. Many are already calling this a contrast of styles. Really? Thank you Captain Obvious.   

What we also find...

are the two best coaches in the SEC clashing heads in a contest that many are claiming to be the biggest matchup in SEC history. Maybe, but keep in mind the SEC has only been around since 1992. So it does make some sense. And this contest is without a doubt, a game that will determine one half of the National Title game.

Both teams rank in the top 10 defensively in points per game given up in the entire country. (Alabama No. 3 at 11.5 PPG and Florida tied for fourth with 12.3 PPG). Alabama and Florida also rank No. 3 and No. 7 respectively in yards given up per contest with 248.50 and 275.67 yards per game respectively.

That should be respected, but we also have to remember that the SEC offenses this year were less than potent. Outside of Florida, there is not a single SEC team that ranks in the top 20 of Total Offense. And Florida, as explosive as they seem to be, still only ranks at No. 17. Alabama? Not real surprising, but they rank as the No. 53 team in the country in Total Offense. Call it great defense, or call it poor offense, it is what it is. (Wow, what a horrible catch phrase that was, eh?).

It is also imperative that the big "uglies" from Alabama control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Without a doubt, it has been their recipe for success this year. Especially on defense. On defense the Tide are giving up a paltry 73.6 yards per game rushing. That ranks as No. 2 in the country; tied with Texas.

That is a very important statistic when one considers the rough and tumble offenses in the SEC that boast a collaborative effort on running the football. This has been a very key factor in 'Bama's title run this year.

Florida, on the other hand, ranks No. 12 in the country against the run giving up 102.8 yards per game. A scary statistic for Alabama fans is the fact that Florida averages more yards rushing per game. With all the hoopla surrounding Florida's specialty athletes and Alabama's pronounced theory on running the football, one would be led to believe that Alabama would dominate this category.

The reality is...they don't. Florida averages 237.08 yards per game, and Alabama 201.50 yards per game rushing. As a whole Florida averages 46.33 points per game and Alabama 32.08 points per game.

Now that I have given you a less than credible rundown of the "statistics" surrounding this game, what does it really come down to?

Simply put, Alabama must control the Time of Possession (TOP) battle. They are the #8 team in the country in this category, while Florida ranks at No. 74. (Alabama holds the ball for an average of 32:33 minutes per game while Florida holds it for 29:32 per game.).

This will have to be a much larger margin for the Tide to be successful. In order for Bama to ultimately come out on top, this stat much reaches into the 35 to 25 type category. If not? I really don't like Bama's chances. At all.

The true "Tide" that Alabama MUST dominate is Special Teams and Turnover Margin. Problem is...Florida dominates them statistically in this category. However, I really believe that Alabama can have some success in this important category.

If they don't...well, they will likely be dominated when all is said and done. Look for Saban to pull some tricks out of the bag in this all important category to make this a much closer game than many expect.

In my final observation of this contest, I will look for Saban to pull out all the stops with trick plays, new formations, defensive adjustments, and everything in between to make this contest become much closer than anyone would expect.

Also, look for Alabama to punch Florida in the mouth (just like Ole Miss) with a run game they have not seen all year. I will call for the outright upset as Alabama keeps their dream season alive, and cart Mr. Saban off the field in pursuit of his second National Championship.

Alabama 27, Florida 23. (Alabama fans are going to party like it's 1992.)

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