If The NBA Season Ended Today: Western Conference Playoff Scenarios

Yesterday I wrote up playoff scenarios and series picks for the Eastern Conference, based off of the records at the start of December. Here is how the playoffs would look in the Western Conference if the season ended today.

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Lakers (14-1) vs. 8. San Antonio Spurs (9-7)

The Lakers have opened this season on an absolute tear, with their best record since the 2001-2002 season. They are playing with energy, consistency and teamwork that are helping to erase their demons from their Finals loss to the Celtics.

Kobe Bryant's points are down from 28.3 ppg last year to 24.4 this year. He's playing less minutes and is being helped out by his teammates and bench in a way that he hasn't experienced since he had "The Diesel" at his side.

It seems like eons ago that Bryant was shouting out for a trade.

The Lakers have put together two seven-game winning streaks, with one loss coming at the hands of the Detroit Pistons. The Lakers are beating teams by an average margin of 16 points. Further, as proof by their come-from-behind victory against Dallas last week, they are putting every team on notice that there is no safe lead against them.

They are on pace to win 70 games this season, something this writer doesn't think is possible, but none-the-less, a great standard for any team to measure itself by.

In the month of December, the Lakers face opponents with a combined record of 107-121. To start the month, they face a string of sub-par teams, Indiana, Philadelphia, Washington, Milwaukee, and Sacramento, which should help them to stretch their streak past 10 games, and get them to 19-1.

LA's biggest test will come at the end of the month when they play four games on the road before coming back home for a Finals re-match with the Celtics.

There is no reason to believe the Lakers won't escape December with as few losses as they enter it with. They have the focus and the drive to run the table in the West and will probably be a lock for the one seed by the All-Star break.

I really can't imagine the Spurs playing poor enough to be the eight-seed in the West. Phoenix and New Orleans have dysfunctional problems that will test them, and Houston is always plagued by injuries that will probably keep them from a high seed in the West once again.

Further, the Spurs are getting their starters healthy, and have benefited by early injuries because it has allowed their young bench players opportunity to step up and truly become part of the team.

After a 1-4 start, the Spurs have built off of a three-game and a four-game winning streak to bring their season back into focus, before the winter stretch begins. They have also had a fairly balanced schedule and have one the games they needed to win, and lost to teams that have shown more consistency early. 

Knowing the Spurs though, there is no doubt in my mind that by mid-February, they will go off on one of their patented, late-season runs, to move up in the standings.

In the month of December, the Spurs face opponents with a combined record of 108-126. This offers them a great opportunity to build on their streaks, and on their healthy players and move themselves up in the West.

Like I said, I really don't think this series will happen. The Spurs are far too experienced, and too many Western teams have issues for the Spurs to sneak in the playoffs as an eight-seed. We're going to have to wait a couple more years for that. But if by chance this were to happen, and it's a huge stretch, I don't see this series playing out any differently than last year.

Series: Lakers in 5

2. Denver Nuggets (12-6) vs. 7. New Orleans Hornets (9-6)

The Nuggets started 1-3, traded Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and have since gone 11-3, complete with a three-game and a four-game winning streak. Billups is averaging 18 ppg, and seven apg and is looking once again like the general that led the Pistons to two-straight NBA Finals and a championship in '04.

The Nuggets have garnered big wins versus Boston, San Antonio, and Houston; yet have lost twice to the Lakers, and once to Cleveland. 

The biggest question surrounding Denver is the same one that always surrounds them: Can they win consistently, and are they mature enough to beat the best teams in the West. If they cannot, this will be another first round exit for the Nuggets.

In the month of December, the Nuggets face opponents with a combined record of 112-109. This should help to test them and by month's end we should have a clearer picture of who the Nuggets really are. A four-game stretch in the middle of the month against Cleveland, Phoenix, and back to back games against Portland should answer a ton of questions about them. 

After starting 3-0, the Hornets struggled through much of November, before amassing a four-game win-streak at the end of the month to keep themselves above water. The Hornets were one of the best surprises of the season last year, and many are rooting for them to take the next step this year. 

While Chris Paul's numbers are only down by one point per game, the team's issues seem to be coming from interior pressures as a result of last years success. Further, watch for a conflict between players and coach Byron Scott that could result in Scott leaving, similar to what happened to him in New Jersey.

While the Hornets have lost a couple questionable games against Charlotte and Sacramento, they have big victories notched against Phoenix, Cleveland, Portland, and Denver.

In the month of December, the Hornets face opponents with a combined record of 106-110. They face big games against Boston, the Lakers, San Antonio and Orlando on Christmas Day. These games should help to show us who the Hornets really are, and if they can go .500 in these four games, they will have proved to themselves that they can play with the best. 

I think the Hornets will get it together and will rise in the West, while the Nuggets will fall. These teams may end up meeting up in the playoffs, just not in this setting. If they did meet however, it would be a great series with Billups working against CP3. 

Series: Hornets in 6

3. Houston Rockets (11-7) vs. 6. Phoenix Suns (11-7)

After acquiring controversial star, Ron Artest in the offseason to compliment superstars Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, the Rockets have been one of the most frustrating teams to read by the end of the month. From a 3-0 start, the Rockets have stumbled along with an 8-7 record, thanks in most part to injuries to McGrady and Ming.

McGrady's numbers are down, 16 ppg, four apg, and four rpg to his career averages of 22 ppg, five apg, and six rpg. Further, the Rockets will have to play for three weeks in December without him, due to a knee injury. This will be a critical period for the Rockets as they seek to develop some consistency and keep themselves on top of the Southwest. 

Inconsistency has been the key word to Houston's season, as they have complied two three-game winning streaks, yet in those streaks have only beaten one team with a winning record. They have split games against the Spurs and Mavericks and lost to the Blazers, Celtics, and Lakers, while beating the Suns and Magic.

In the month of December, Houston faces opponents with a combined record of 95-124. This offers them an excellent opportunity to get some easy wins with McGrady injured so they can move forward in 2009 towards solidifying a high-seed in the playoffs. The last thing the Rockets want is year three against the Jazz in the first round.

The Suns have appeared to set. It is truly one of the sad realizations in the NBA that one of the most enjoyable and entertaining teams to watch in years past, has not only lost its chance for a championship, but has also become boring and slow.

After acquiring Shaq last February, and losing show-time, master-mined coach Mike D'Antoni, the Suns have looked lost and without an identity. 

Two-time MVP, Steve Nash's numbers are down from last year, 17 ppg, 11 apg, and four rpg in '07-08 to 15 ppg, eight apg, and three rpg this year. Amare Stoudamire's numbers too have been lacking, from 25 ppg, two bpg, and nine rpg in '07-08 to 22 ppg,  one bpg, and eight rpg this year. 

The Suns have also struggled in Terry Porter's half-court, Shaq-Attack offense, averaging less points, and crossing the 100-pt threshold only 10 times this season.

While they have only amassed two three-game winning streaks they have gotten big wins versus San Antonio, Portland(twice), and Detroit. However they have lost games against New Orleans, Chicago, were dismantled against the Lakers, and enter December with back-to-back losses against Miami and New Jersey.

In the month of December, Phoenix faces opponents with a combined record of 109-95. This is going to be a big month in Phoenix's season. They are going to be tested against good teams like New Orleans, Utah, LA Lakers, Orlando, Portland, Denver, and San Antonio.

If they can find some sense of identity and can make it through the month with eight victories, they should still be in a good position to last in the West, however, I cannot see them making it out of the first round this year, that is unless they end up facing Houston.

Series: Houston in 6

4. Portland Trailblazers (12-6) vs. 5. Utah Jazz (11-7)

The Blazers have been one of the surprising teams of '08-09. With Greg Oden they display a great ability to run a high-paced, transition offense, while scoring quick points in the paint. 

Oden's averaging eight ppg and seven rpg alongside Brandon Roy's 21 ppg, five apg and  four rpg. These two star's have been complemented by the supporting cast of LaMarcus Alderidge, Steve Blake, Channing Frye, Joel Pryzbilla, and Spanish rookie sensation Rudy Fernandez. 

After a 1-3 start, the Blazers have impressively rebounded to build two four-game winning streaks. They have also shown strength in wins versus San Antonio, Houston, Orlando, and a nine-point victory in Detroit.

In the month of December, the Blazers face opponents with a combined record of 106-98. While they have an advantage against lackluster teams like Washington and the LA Clippers, they have two meeting versus Boston, which will definitely test this young team.

Remember, this is the Blazers team that blew-up for a 14-game winning streak last December, now with Oden. The Blazers have taken advantage of a tough early schedule and have put themselves in a great position to solidify themselves as one of the premier teams in the West. Look for them to separate themselves from the majority of the West by years end.

After a 6-1 start, the Jazz have stumbled to a 5-7 record to end November, thanks to the injury of Deron Williams. Since his return however, the Jazz have gone 2-1 and are in a good spot at the start of the second month of the season.

Carlos Boozer is playing the best ball of his career, averaging 21 ppg and 12 rpg, and has held the Jazz steady with Williams out. 

The Jazz have had a fairly easy first month of the season, yet have lost questionable games to New York, Washington, and Charlotte. While they have beaten Denver, Portland, and Phoenix, they have yet to be truly tested by the elite teams in the league. They have a tough schedule in December, and will face Boston for the first time that will be their first big test of the year.

In the month of December, Utah faces opponents with a combined record of 139-122. They are going to need to get some consistency now that they are healthy to keep with the competitive West. The Jazz have experience and a really talented team that has faced adversity before. If they can escape December with 8-10 victories, they should still be in the playoff hunt come 2009.

This would be a great series if it developed to that. Two young squads trying to break into the upper-echelons of the West. Roy and Oden would match-up well against Williams and Boozer and would create an awesome rivalry for the NBA to build on. I'd take the Jazz's past experience here over the Blazer's green eyes.

Series: Utah in 7

So a month into the 2008-2009 season, this is how the playoffs would look if the season ended today. I expect to see more shuffles within the West where the talent is more concentrated, then in the East. However, the only team I see from the West sneaking into the playoffs would be the Mavericks, who are, as of right now, off to a tough, frustrating start. In the East, look for Philadelphia, Chicago, and Miami to compete for spots.

We'll see how similar or different the two conferences look at the start of 2009.