NFL Picks Week 5: Why the Chargers Are a Lock to Cover vs. Broncos

Given the amount of talent they have on both sides of the ball, the San Diego Chargers should probably be a more dominant team than they are.

We've been saying this about the Chargers for a couple years at this point, and this is certainly the case again this year. As loaded as the Chargers are, they've barely been able to eke out wins against the Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins. The Chargers may be 3-1, but it doesn't look all that great once your realize that the three teams they've beaten have a combined record of 1-11.

Luckily for the Chargers, they get to face another 1-3 team in Week 5 as they hit the road to take on the Denver Broncos.The oddsmakers must have noticed San Diego's issues, as the spread (according to Bodog) has the Chargers favored by just four points.

Because the Chargers have pulled out three unimpressive wins that have all come at home, you might be tempted to take the Broncos to win outright, but believe me when I tell you that that's not a good idea.

One reason you really have to like San Diego's chances is because the Broncos have had plenty of trouble with opposing quarterbacks in the last three weeks. Each of the last three QBs the Broncos have faced have thrown for more than 300 yards against them, and those three QBs have also combined to throw eight touchdown passes and just one interception.

This is music to Philip Rivers' ears. He's gotten off to a moderately slow start, and it sounds like he's going to be without both Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson, but he's the kind of quarterback who's a threat no matter whom he's throwing to.

And Rivers should get plenty of help from Ryan Mathews. The Broncos have respectable numbers against the run, but Darren McFadden showed us all in Week 1 that the Broncos can definitely be beat on the ground. Mathews has been steadily shaking off the bust label in recent weeks, and I fully expect him to have another good game in Week 5.

Offensively, the Broncos really don't bring much to the table. Their rushing attack is virtually nonexistent, and you just never know what Kyle Orton is going to do in a given week. Against a Chargers team that is in the top 15 against both the run and the pass, this kind of uncertainty just doesn't bode well.

So, despite the fact the four-point spread indicates that this game is going to be close, I don't think it will be. The Chargers have some issues, but they have too many advantages in too many matchups to lose this game.

Prediction: Chargers 28, Broncos 17