Notes from Fantasy Land: NFL 2011 Stars and Flops Thus Far

As a rabid fantasy football geek, I have been thrilled by the NFL season thus far. High-scoring games, high-voltage contests, three quarterbacks averaging 30-plus fantasy points a game, a wide receiver threatening to maul existing records—it's been a tremendously enthralling show thus far.

As we look back at the first quarter of the season, standouts have emerged, as have absolute slobs. This article talks about some of these noteworthy players at each of the primary offensive positions, and looks at what is in store in the weeks ahead.

Front-Runners: The Stud Running Backs

According to ESPN’s average draft order across all its leagues, Matt Forte was the 14^th running back picked; Fred Jackson was No. 26. At the end of Week 4, Forte was the No. 1 running back in terms of actual fantasy points scored; F-Jax was not much worse at No. 5.

To me, their actual performance is less of a surprise than the fact that they were drafted as late as they were. Particularly since both Forte and Jackson are the clear pile-drivers for their respective teams, Chicago and Buffalo. Marion Barber (CHI) and CJ Spiller (BUF) are obvious backups who are considered ideal change-of-pace (Spiller) or take-a-breather (Barber) options. So, unsurprisingly, Forte and Jackson have had the lion’s share of their teams’ carries (Forte at 73 percent through four weeks, and Jackson at 68 percent).

What can we expect moving forward? Well, Forte plays Detroit, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia over the next five weeks. The playing field is not that much more difficult for Fred Jackson, as he contends with the porous Eagles, Giants and Jets run defenses in the next few weeks. Bunches of points can be expected from Forte and F-Jax for all their fantasy football owners.

Prime Signal-Callers: Stud QBs

Speaking of chart-busters, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and outstanding rookie Cam Newton have blazed a trail seldom seen in fantasy land before. After four weeks, Rodgers, Brady and Newton have each averaged approximately 33 fantasy points per week; the league average during this period has been 15.

The real stunner here has been Carolina's Cam Newton. Rodgers and Brady were, in some order, rated among the top five fantasy QBs prior to the start of the season (other popular ones being Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Michael Vick). Newton, on the other hand, was rated as the 28th-rated QB on the draft board, behind the likes of Alex Smith, Chad Henne and Matt Cassell. In fact, he was undrafted in 56 percent of the leagues, as per ESPN and CBS Sports' standard fantasy football league results.

The future projection for these studs is looking good—GB and NE are pass-first and pass-second offenses that thrive on their QBs’ ability to make things happen with the ball. Again, to all of our surprise, the Panthers under Ron Rivera have adopted the same strategy. In Week 4, for example, Newton operated out of the shotgun on a stunning 68 percent of the Panthers’ plays.

The Speed Merchants: Stud Wide Receivers (WR)

Among WRs, most preseason fantasy drafts placed Detroit’s Calvin Johnson in the top five receivers (in a group consisting of Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Wallace). Needless to say, Megatron has "transformed" the position with an aggregation of 100 fantasy points through the first four weeks, including an unbelievable eight TDs! With all this, though, Mr. Johnson has someone to look up to in the WR performance rankings thus far—New England’s Wes Welker.

Welker was at a far more moderate spectrum of expectations in pre-draft prognosis. Drafted in the mid-to-late draft rounds, with an average WR position of No. 12, Welker is absolutely obliterating the fantasy world with an unreal 125 points through four weeks—an unbelievable 32 points per contest!

On a more under-the-radar front, KC’s Dwayne Bowe is shaping up to reproduce what was the fantasy-leading WR performance last season. Interestingly, during the first four games of 2010, Bowe accumulated just 160 yards on 11 catches, including two TDs. What happened during the remaining portion of last season was breathtaking—in the final 12 games of 2010, Bowe was dynamic, with 937 yards to go with 13 TDs, clearly establishing himself as the top WR in fantasy football during that time frame. 

So all you Dwayne Bowe owners—rest assured. For some inexplicable reason, Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe seem to take some time, after the season’s started, to get comfortable with each other. Once they do, though, the results are explosive.

Fantasy Flops: Singing the Blues in St. Louis

Now for the other end of the spectrum. The duds, the goats or, in other words, the Fantasy Flops. Crucial here is to state that this is more about relative expectations versus absolute results—we all knew that Blaine Gabbert would have a deer-in-the-headlights look through the first few games, so he does not count.

But Sam Bradford does—he was widely regarded as a breakout QB candidate in fantasy circles. Last season, Bradford ranked third among starting QBs in terms of passing attempts and seventh in passing completions. The addition of offensive wizard Josh McDaniels as the Rams offensive coordinator fueled the hopes even further.

With all those expectations as the baseline, the actual returns from Bradford have been less than underwhelming. After four weeks, he ranks 29th among QBs, with a measly average of 12 fantasy points per week. The Rams have had a horrendous schedule thus far, and life will get easier; they have two games apiece remaining against Arizona, Seattle and San Francisco. However, given the bleak state of the receiving corps in St. Louis, and an aging Steven Jackson not providing much hope either, Bradford owners cannot be faulted for jumping ship.

A close contender to Bradford as Flop QB through the first quarter of 2011 would be Matt Cassel (also averaging 12 points per game) of the Chiefs.

Fantasy Flops: No Longer a Titan

After four weeks, the dynamic Chris Johnson is averaging a poor 2.9 yards a carry. This, from a man widely regarded as the quickest RB around, and whose career YPC average is 5.1. Part of the blame is being accorded to a less-than-stellar offensive line, and an equal culpability is on Johnson’s own lackadaisical preparation following a lengthy contract holdout.

A few slivers of hope bode well, though. Week 4 saw Johnson’s best game of the season, and he looked shifty as the game went on. Also significant is the impending return of his fullback Ahmard Hall, who was absent from the first part of the season due to a league-imposed suspension.

Other contenders for the Fantasy Flop among RBs include Michael Turner (averaging 75 yards per game), Knowshon Moreno (a combination of being injury-prone and being invisible) and the much-hyped Shonn Greene (39 yards per contest).

Finally: Brave Predictions

Finally, five brave, seemingly nonsensical, yet utterly feasible predictions for the rest of the first half of 2011:

1. Isaac Redman will take over as the No. 1 RB in Pittsburgh by Week 7.
2. Ditto for Steven Ridley in NE, and possibly as early as Week 6.
3. Through the rest of 2011, Eric Decker will have more fantasy points than Brandon Lloyd
4. Jimmy Graham will be fantasy’s No. 1 tight end for 2011
5. The Kolb-to-Fitzerald connection will be in full flight starting Week 8. Signs are there, just not clicking well at the moment.