Aaron Curry and the Other 11 NFL Players Most Likely To Be Traded by Deadline

The NFL trade deadline of October 18 means that there are just 12 shopping days for NFL general managers to acquire the likes of Aaron Curry and 11 other players that have the potential to be traded prior to the deadline.

We will establish what are the percentage odds of each player to actually be dealt based on the likelihood that their current team really wants to pull the trigger on a deal. Sometimes there is far more smoke than actual fire with respect to actual trades completed versus the rumor mill gossip. But, there is evidence that trades will go down in October, for big-name players and less well-known players as well.

In the past two years, the following players have been traded in October, prior to the trade deadline: Marshawn Lynch, Jayme Mitchell, Randy Moss, Deion Branch, Mike Bell, Jerome Harrison, Alex Magee, Braylon Edwards, Chansi Stuckey, Jason Trusnik, Gaines Adams, Tank Tyler, Brandon Gibson and Will Witherspoon.

If you are interested, I just wrote a story on Tuesday, analyzing who the best trade chip was for every NFL team. Here is the link to the story.

Matt Forte

Matt Forte is currently ranked as the No. 7 rusher in the NFL with 324 yards gained after four weeks. Forte is averaging a very healthy 5.4 yards per rush, and as long as that average remains that high, you can rest assured that the Bears will keep giving him the rock.

Forte has been unhappy about his contract situation, and he is not the only Bears player in that same scenario, as Lance Briggs is also making noise about his deal.

Forte is a main cog of the Bears offense. Their passing offense doesn't have that many weapons, and Roy Williams has been missing in action. Based on the number of sacks that Jay Cutler takes, the offense has to have Forte in the lineup to keep defenses honest.

Maybe it's possible that some other team that is in need of a top-tier running back will swoop in and entice the Bears, but I just don't see it happening.

Odds of Forte being traded: 15 percent

Fred Jackson

Fred Jackson of the Buffalo Bills is off to an even better start than Matt Forte is. Jackson has currently amassed 369 yards on the ground and is averaging 5.8 yards per rush. Not only that, but Jackson also has made 13 catches on the year, while averaging 11.3 yards per catch. 

Jackson is playing on the final year of his contract in Buffalo, and he has been vocal about not being pleased that the Bills have yet to negotiate a contract extension. Jackson is 30 years old, but he does not run like he is 30. In fact, he is one of the most elusive backs in the NFL today.

The Bills parted ways with veteran receiver Lee Evans in the preseason, so they could free up a spot for Donald Jones and Marcus Easley. The obvious backup to Jackson, is C.J. Spiller, who was the Bills first-round draft pick in 2010. But Jackson is the guy the Bills rely on to run between the tackles, while Spiller is the quick burst of speed back to run the ball outside on sweeps. While it's possible, the Bills could entertain trade talks, I don't see them trading Jackson away this year.

Odds of Fred Jackson trade: 15 percent

Matt Flynn

Just like Aaron Rogers watched Brett Favre from the bench, Matt Flynn is now watching Rogers, and waiting for his turn to be a starting quarterback. Recent examples of backup quarterbacks being traded for some draft picks or players would be Matt Cassel and Kevin Kolb.

What are the chances that some team desperate for a quarterback will come pounding on the Packers door and make them an offer that they can't refuse? Rogers is durable, and due to his health, it is not like the Packers have to worry about him not being there every week, ready to play.

With teams like the Dolphins facing a crisis mode with the shoulder issue of Chad Henne, and not liking any of the other options that are available on the street, that is one example of a potential Flynn deal.

Odds of a Matt Flynn trade:  20 percent

Carson Palmer

Speaking about quarterbacks that Miami could have on high-alert status, what more convincing does Bengals owner Mike Brown need to see that Andy Dalton is looking like he will be a very good quarterback. He is guiding the Bengals to a .500 record already and is only going to get better with time.

So, why not deal Carson Palmer off to a team that would be willing to part with a high-draft pick to give Dalton another weapon or two to work with?

Miami could easily plug Palmer in and let him start working with Brandon Marshall to bring some life in to the Dolphins offense.

Just because it makes sense doesn't mean that Mike Brown will cave in. After all, he has his principles.

Odds of a Carson Palmer trade:  25 percent

Chad Ochocinco

First, there was the tweet that Chad Ochocinco was in awe of the New England Patriots offense that he was supposed to be a part of. Then there was the dropped touchdown pass against the Buffalo Bills that might have resulted in a victory.

Chad Ochocinco hasn't exactly lit up the New England Patriots crowd or his team with his performance to date. For teams that lose their top pass receiver (Kenny Britt, Andre Johnson, etc), there might be certain scenarios where it is a reasonable play to sacrifice a low-round draft pick to be able to rent Ochocinco for the rest of the year and make him more of a focal point of the offense. In New England, he is more of an afterthought, based on all of the younger and more athletic options.

If he doesn't get traded by the deadline, there is a reasonable chance that he won't finish the year with New England based on what he has displayed over the first four weeks. 

Odds of a Chad Ochocinco trade:  25 percent

Anthony Gonzalez

The Indianapolis Colts have a surplus of wide receivers, and right now, Anthony Gonzalez is the one who appears to be the guy who might be had at the trade deadline for a team in need of a solid receiver.

As long as there are quarterbacks like Curtis Painter and Kerry Collins throwing the ball to the Colts receivers, they can afford trading Gonzalez away to another team to either get some help on one of their areas of weakness (offensive line or defensive line) or secure a draft pick for future help.

As we sighted in the Ochocinco slide, there are some teams that have recently lost high-profile receivers that might have an interest in Gonzalez, so I think there is the prospect of something happening here.

Odds of a Anthony Gonzalez trade:  35 percent

Lance Briggs

As we mentioned with Matt Forte, linebacker Lance Briggs is also unhappy with his contract status for the Chicago Bears and wants to see a new deal restructured. Until the Bears are able to make it happen, he will have a chip on his shoulder and could conceivably be a problem in the locker room later this year, if he becomes even more vocal about his deal.

The Philadelphia Eagles are in need of help at linebacker as they are strong on the defensive line and in the secondary. If you could plug a guy like Briggs into that defense, that might be the missing piece they need to go on a run.

The Bears have a solid defense, and they might be able to absorb the loss of Briggs, based on what other teams were willing to give up.

Odds of a Lance Briggs trade:  35 percent

Kyle Orton

The debate in Denver between quarterback Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow continues to rage on. As long as the Broncos are a losing team, the fans will continue to voice their opinion about who they think should be starting.

With a 1-3 record and a game coming up against the tough San Diego Chargers, the Broncos could very well be 1-4 coming into their Week 6 bye week. With only those first five games to go on prior to the trade deadline, they either will cave in to the demands of the fans and start Tebow (meaning that they will trade Orton), or they will maintain their preference to go with Orton and entertain the prospect of sending Tebow back to the state of Florida, where the Dolphins would be happy to take him.

Either way, it doesn't make sense to prolong this mess beyond the trade deadline.

Odds of a Kyle Orton trade: 40 percent

Asante Samuel

Asante Samuel has to feel like the third wheel in the Philadelphia Eagles secondary. When the Eagles traded for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and signed Nnamdi Asomugha as a free agent, Samuel went from being top dog to No. 3 in the pecking order. 

Naturally, he didn't react well to how this all developed and let his feelings be known. The Eagles were expecting a much better start than 1-3, and if they happen to lose to the upstart Buffalo Bills this Sunday, they will be at a depressing 1-4 record. With a start like that, it might be enough for them to consider breaking off some of the parts and trading away some players with the thought of starting over again in 2012.

As pass-crazy as the NFL is these days, the rest of the league would probably be very willing to part with something of value if they could upgrade with a talent like Samuel in their secondary. Andy Reid has been known to do some wheeling and dealing, so I can see this scenario as a distinct possibility.

Odds of a Asante Samuel trade:  40 percent

Osi Umenyiora

Osi Umenyiora is just one more example of a veteran player who is not happy with his contract status and wants out. He held out of the start of training camp, but even though he is playing, he is still troubled by the lack of progress on any new deal between his agent and the New York Giants.

The Giants have one of the best pass-rushing defenses in the entire NFL. They find ways to put heat on the quarterback, and because of how deep they are, they can probably consider trading away Umenyiora in exchange for some secondary help (too many injuries) or for draft picks.

The only newer wrinkles to this situation is the recent injury to Justin Tuck, and Umenyiora having not been active until Week 4. Still, he was able to step in and record two sacks and forced a fumble, so there are a number of teams that would love to have a guy like that dropped right in to their defensive line.

Odds of a Osi Umenyiora trade:  40 percent

Tim Tebow

As we highlighted in the earlier slide on Kyle Orton, somebody in the Orton versus Tim Tebow quarterback debate has to leave town. It seems foolish to let Tebow be underemployed, while rookies like Andy Dalton and Cam Newton are allowed to play week in and week out.

Depending on the outcome of the Broncos game this Sunday versus the San Diego Chargers, it could very well dictate what happens. If the Broncos think that they can still win with Orton, then I could see them trading Tebow to a team like the Miami Dolphins, who are in need of a shot in the arm, in light of the injury to quarterback Chad Henne.

If the Broncos lose, then the Broncos could trade Orton off and use the upcoming bye week to give Tebow two weeks to prepare for his first start this year in running the offense.

Now, we probably should cover our bases and say that it is possible the Broncos could trade away Orton and then make Brady Quinn the starter, but that would just be too crazy for Denver fans to handle, wouldn't it?

Odds of a Tim Tebow trade:  50 percent

Aaron Curry

Aaron Curry to me is the most likely player to be traded between now and the trade deadline because he has been openly shopped in the trade market for too long. He is a young guy, just 25 years old, so he still has the vast majority of his career ahead of him. 

The Seahawks are supposedly open to getting a late-round draft pick in return for him, and there are enough teams out there that are hurting for linebackers due to either poor performance or injury, that Curry would be worth sacrificing a late-round draft pick on him.

The most logical destination would be the Carolina Panthers due to losing two starters to the I.R., but maybe, the Seahawks are able to use the Panthers as a springboard for a higher return.

Odds of a Aaron Curry trade: 80 percent