2011 MLB Playoff Predictions: David Price Will Lead Rays Past Rangers in Game 3

The Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers reconvene at Tropicana Field after splitting the first two games of their American League Divisional Series in Texas. On Monday night, it will be Rays ace David Price who will pitch his team to a series lead in Game 3.

After walking two batters or more in just six of his first 20 starts, Price has done so in 14 consecutive starts to finish the season. For most pitchers that would illustrate a loss of command. However, for Price it has been about missing more bats, even if it comes at the cost of a couple walks.

Price lowered his ERA from 3.73 to 3.49 over those final 14 starts.

If you are only a casual observer of the sport, please ignore Price's 12-13 record. Starting pitcher wins are one of the most useless statistics in all of sports.

To illustrate that point, of the 26-year-old lefty's 13 losses, eight of them came in games where he allowed three runs or less. Based on the ERA estimator SIERA (factors in all facets of a pitcher's performance), Price was the 11th-best starting pitcher in baseball this season.

The No. 11 pitcher in the sport had a 12-13 record? Yes. That shows just how meaningless wins are when evaluating a starter's ability. According to all of the ERA predictors, Price actually had a better season in 2011 (12-13) than he did in 2010 (19-6).

Price struggled in his first season as a starter in 2009, but has slowly progressed into one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. The main reason for his rise is raising his strikeout rate by nearly 1.5 batters per nine while lowering his walk rate by 1.2.

The most important stat for pitchers is strikeouts. Due to the high variability of what can happen when a batter puts the ball in play, strikeouts are the only way for pitcher to completely control what happens during any given at bat.

Price strikes out nearly one batter per inning, which goes a long way in allowing him to avoid the extended innings that plagued him early in his career.

Texas led the major leagues in avoiding strikeouts, so that's where Game 3 will be won. If Price can limit the extended innings and give Tampa Bay seven strong, it will be up to the bullpen to finish the job. Price struck out 13 in 14 innings against the Rangers in 2011, which is a good sign for the Rays.

The Rangers offense has been about one run better per game than the Rays hitters over the past month and that's basically the difference between Texas starter Colby Lewis and Price. So this game is a virtual toss-up.

And in toss-up games, I always favor the better pitcher.

Prediction: Rays 4 Rangers 3