NFL Draft 2012: 9 Teams Who Might Get the No. 1 Pick

Andrew Luck is the best quarterback prospect to come along...ever.  Or at least the best since Peyton Manning.

It all depends on who you ask.

There is no debate that the entire NFL thinks that Luck is going to be a star, and that he will be the No. 1 pick in the draft.  There appears to be a couple of teams with an inside track on the "Suck-4-Luck" campaign, but no clear front-runner like the 0-16 Lions a couple years ago. 

Some of the teams with a shot to land the No. 1 pick would draft Luck without hesitation.  Other teams already have an established quarterback.  Then there are teams that recently drafted a quarterback with a premium draft pick. 

I've narrowed it down to nine teams with a legitimate chance at the No. 1 pick.  Among them you won't find the San Francisco 49ers, who are coached by Jim Harbaugh, Luck's former college coach at Stanford.  I can't see any scenario in which the 49ers finish last in their division, and let's face it, the last place team in the NFC West might win the Luck Sweepstakes.

Here are the teams with a chance to draft Luck, and the dilemma they might face...

9. Arizona Cardinals

Division: NFC West (easy)

Non Division Schedule - AFC North and NFC East (difficult)

Best case scenario - They finish 8-8, win the NFC West

Worst case scenario - They finish 2-12, wind up picking No. 1 in the draft.

QB Situation... Arizona traded a starting cornerback (Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie) and their 2012 second round draft pick for Kolb last year.  They signed Kevin Kolb to a huge contract (six years, $65 million), thinking they had their "quarterback of the future."  If they had the first overall pick, I think they could find a taker for Kolb (Miami?), and get back basically the same thing they gave up for him (a second round pick, plus a player). 

If they get the No. 1 Pick.. I think they would trade Kolb and pick Luck.  Poor, poor Kevin Kolb.  He would be the "quarterback of the future" for the third different team.

8. Minnesota Vikings

Division: NFC North (hard)

Non Division Schedule - AFC West and NFC South (average)

Best case scenario - They finish 6-10, finish last in the NFC North

Worst case scenario - They finish 3-13, wind up picking No. 1 in the draft.

QB Situation... Minnesota shocked everybody when they drafted Christian Ponder in the middle of the first round last year.  Sure, they needed a quarterback, but Christian Ponder?  It was a reach, and that problem was compounded when they signed the washed up Donovan McNabb. 

If they get the #1 Pick... They draft Luck before Roger Goodell can make it to the podium.  They get crucified for wasting last year's pick on Ponder, but who cares?  Luck goes to Minnesota, teams up with Adrian Peterson, and when the team eventually moves to Los Angeles, well then, Andrew Luck will be the face of football in LA.

7. Carolina Panthers

Division: NFC South (hard)

Non Division Schedule - AFC South and NFC North (hard)

Best case scenario - They finish 4-12, finish last in the NFC South

Worst case scenario - They finish 2-14, wind up picking No. 1 in the draft.

QB Situation... They drafted Cam Newton No. 1 overall last year.  Newton was heavily criticized, but he has played terrific football so far, and he looks like he could be a star.

If they get the No. 1 Pick... This would be fascinating.  There is no way the Panthers are trading Cam Newton, not unless he falls flat on his face from here on out.  Either way, if they trade Newton, they'll get back a lot in return for him.  If they trade the No. 1 Pick, they'll get a king's ransom, putting their franchise in position to be very good for a long time.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

Division: AFC North (hard)

Non Division Schedule - AFC South and NFC West (easy)

Best case scenario - They finish 7-9, finish third in the AFC North

Worst case scenario - They finish 2-14, wind up picking No. 1 in the draft.

QB Situation... They have Carson Palmer, a solid starter, but he would rather retire than play for the Bengals.  They are the worst run franchise in the NFL, so you can't blame him.  So the Bengals, knowing Palmer wasn't bluffing, drafted Andy Dalton last year with the 35th overall pick.

If they get the #1 Pick... This is an easy one.  If they get the No. 1 pick, Luck will be a Bengal.  The team would probably trade Palmer (Miami, Seattle, Minnesota?), and get a third round pick in return.  Andy Dalton becomes a backup, with Luck starting from Day 1.

5. St. Louis Rams

Division: NFC West (easy)

Non Division Schedule - AFC North and NFC East (hard)

Best case scenario - They finish 8-8, win the NFC West and make the playoffs

Worst case scenario - They finish 2-14, wind up picking No. 1 in the draft.

QB Situation... They drafted Sam Bradford No. 1 overall in 2010.  Among personnel men, Bradford is widely regarded as a future star, an elite QB in the making. 

If they get the No. 1 Pick... The Rams are in a win-win situation if they land the No. 1 pick.  I think there is a 99.9 percent chance they would keep Bradford, because he has all the qualities you need in the NFL, and he has proven himself in the NFL.  Luck is a terrific prospect, but he is still just a prospect.  There are no guarantees when picking QB's.  The 0.1 percent chance the Rams would trade Bradford would be based on his history of injuries in college.  But assuming they traded the No. 1 pick, they would get a ton of picks in return, giving them the chance to add weapons for Bradford to throw to.

There is always a "good side" and a "bad side" with every situation.  The "bad side" here would be (1) they might be trading the pick to Seattle, and could the Rams really help Seattle by setting them up with an elite QB for the next 12 years?  And (2) either way, Rams GM Billy Devaney is making this pick, and he will probably screw it up.

4. Seattle Seahawks

Division: NFC West (easy)

Non Division Schedule - AFC North and NFC East (hard)

Best case scenario - They finish 6-10, finish third in the NFC West.

Worst case scenario - They finish 2-14, wind up picking No. 1 in the draft.

QB Situation... They have Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst in house.  'Nuff said.

If they get the No. 1 Pick... This would be a slam dunk for Seattle.  The only bad thing is, Luck would have to play for Pete Carrol, and that is never a good thing.

3. Miami Dolphins

Division: AFC East (hard)

Non Division Schedule - AFC West and NFC East (hard)

Best case scenario - They finish 4-12, finish last in the AFC East, Tony Sporano gets fired.

Worst case scenario - They finish 2-14, wind up picking No. 1 in the draft, Sporano still gets fired.

QB Situation... Chad Henne is in house, and he is decent at best.

If they get the No. 1 Pick... If the Dolphins wind up picking first, don't be surprised if one of the elite coaches out there (Gruden, Cowher) wind up taking this job.  Because what better way to turn around a franchise than draft a franchise QB?

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Division: NFC West (medium)

Non Division Schedule - AFC East and NFC North (hard)

Best case scenario - They finish 3-13, finish last in the AFC West

Worst case scenario - They finish 1-15, wind up picking No. 1 in the draft.

QB Situation... Matt Cassel is the starter.  He is a good QB if he has good players around him, the classic "game manager."  Luck would be a huge upgrade.

If they get the No. 1 Pick... They are probably picking a QB either way.  If they pick first, it will obviously be Luck.  If they end up picking in the 3-4 range, it will be either USC's Matt Barkley or Oklahoma's Landry Jones.  Either way, Matt Cassel's days are numbered in KC. 

Whichever young QB goes to Kansas City, he is walking into a very good situation.  The Chiefs got hammered by injuries this season, and they play a really tough schedule.  Luck would start from Day 1, but any of the other guys would have the luxury of sitting behind Cassel for a year or two, and having a great running game behind him once he became the starter.

1. Indianapolis Colts

Division: AFC South (easy)

Non Division Schedule - AFC North and NFC South (hard)

Best case scenario - They finish 4-12, finish third in the AFC South

Worst case scenario - They finish 0-16, wind up picking No. 1 in the draft.

QB Situation... They have Peyton Manning, one of the all-time great QBs, but he has a serious neck injury.  Manning obviously has a few good years left in him if he can stay healthy.

If they get the No. 1 Pick... This would be the most fun situation to watch unfold.  Do the Colts trade the pick, slide back a few spots, and add more weapons for Peyton on offense?  Do they use the extra picks to help an aging and inept defense?  Or do they pick Luck, let him sit behind Peyton for a couple of years, and set themselves up for another 10-12 year dynasty?

If I'm the Colts, I pick Luck and never look back.  Peyton has a couple good years left.  If he wants to keep playing after that, as harsh as it sounds, let him walk.  That was the blueprint used by Green Bay Packers, and seemed to work out just fine.