Odds on Top QBs Breaking Single-Season Yardage Record

There are currently five QBs in 2011 who are on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season passing yards record that he's held for the past 26 years.

In 1984, his second year in the NFL, Marino threw for an astounding 5,084 yards while leading the Miami Dolphins to a 14-2 record and a trip to Super Bowl XIX. 

Unfortunately, Marino ended up facing another future legend, Joe Montana of the San Francisco 49ers, and lost his only Super Bowl appearance 38-16.

Undoubtedly, Marino was the best QB to never win a Super Bowl.

However, he still holds several NFL career records—the best of which is the single-season passing yardage mark.

Will there be a QB in 2011 who can finally eclipse this long-standing record? 

Today's NFL is a passing league, so it's just a matter of time before somebody passes for more than 5,084 yards over the course of 16 weeks.  This is especially true when you consider that the league has been making many rule changes that benefit offenses—such as the latest "defenseless receiver" rule.

For the sake of this, I'm going to assume two things: 1) the QB in question will remain healthy and 2) that his main receiving target(s) will remain healthy as well.

Let's take a look at the five QBs who are currently on pace to do just that and then assess the odds of it actually happening. 

For odds assessment, I'll be using the following scale to indicate the chances I think of that QB actually breaking the record:

Good
Above average
Below average
No chance

QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

Mathew Stafford has the Lions off to their best start since 1980.  After being the No. 1 overall selection in 2009, Stafford suffered two injury-riddled years to start off his career. However, he is now starting to realize his potential.

So far, he has thrown for 977 yards and nine TDs.  That puts him on pace for 5,211 yards and 48 TD passes.

Will he be able to keep this pace up?  Let's look at the key factors that could determine his chances this year:

Receiving targets: Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young, Brandon Pettigrew and Jahvid Best.  They are a good group with Johnson as the stud. 

Offensive line: Ranked 7th in the NFL and have only given up five sacks so far.

Remaining schedule: Currently, the Chargers are the only one in the top 10 for passing defense remaining on their schedule, and they can be passed-on easily.

Chances of Stafford breaking the record: Above average.

Though it is hard to see Stafford maintaining his current pace, he does have one thing going for him—Calvin Johnson.  However, we also haven't seen what Stafford can do when playing a full 16-game season.

QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Last season, Phillip Rivers fell short of the single-season record by what amounts to one good game: 374 yards.  He threw for 4,710 yards in 2010 and that was without his top receiving threat in Vincent Jackson (for the most part).

Over the first three weeks, Rivers has thrown for 979 yards and four TDs.  That puts him on pace for 5,221 yards and 21 TD passes.

Key factors:

Receiving targets: Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, Antonio Gates, Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert.  At this point, Mathews and Tolbert have been his best receivers. Unfortunately, they're running backs. 

Jackson has had one great game sandwiched by two mediocre ones, and Floyd and Gates have been injured.

Offensive line: Ranked 14th and have given up six sacks.

Remaining schedule: Rivers will face three defenses currently in the top 10 against the pass along with a few other tough matchups.

Chances of Rivers breaking the record: Below average (well below average I might add, but still above "no chance").

Rivers is a good QB, but no matter how hard I try, I can't foresee him eclipsing 5,000 yards in a season. 

QB Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton, the No. 1 overall draft pick this year, is off to a blazing start in Carolina.  I, for one, am stunned by his performances so far.

Newton has already set an NFL record by being the first rookie QB to ever pass for over 400 yards in his first two games.  Could there be any more records on the horizon by this hot rookie?

Through three games, Newton has passed for 1,012 yards and four TDs.  That puts him on pace for 5,397 yards and 21 TD passes.

Not bad for a rookie, huh?

Key factors:

Receiving targets: Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, Jeremy Shockey, Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewart. Smith, a former stud WR, is being resurrected with the emergence of Newton. 

However, the rest of his receiving targets are rather lackluster.  That's why it's so amazing Newton has put up the numbers he has so far.

Offensive line: Ranked 19th and has given up eight sacks so far.

Remaining schedule: Newton will face two defenses currently in the top 10 against the pass.

Chances of Newton breaking the record: No chance. 

Newton is still a rookie, and there is no way you can expect him to keep up the pace he currently holds. Will he get Rookie of the Year honors?  That's a distinct possibility.  But breaking Marino's record?  Not a shot.

QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees has already come oh-so-close to breaking Dan Marino's record.  In 2008, Brees passed for 5,069 yards, just 15 yards shy.  Just think, that is merely one more completion to Marques Colston over the middle.

Since joining the Saints in 2006, Brees has averaged a gaudy 4,584 yards passing per season.  If that shows one thing, it's consistency.

So far this season, Brees is off to a normal start.  He's thrown for 1,059 yards and nine TDs.  That puts him on pace for 5,648 yards and 48 TD passes.

Brees is a good QB who seems to play in a great, QB-friendly system.  It never seems to matter what receivers he has, because it seems that every week someone steps up.

Key factors:

Receiving targets: Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles.  Colston is currently out for a while, and Moore is just coming off an injury.

However, that doesn't seem to matter; collectively, they can all produce good numbers on any given week.

Offensive line: Ranked 15th and has given up six sacks.

Remaining schedule: Brees will face three defenses ranked in the top 10 against the pass.

Chances of Brees breaking the record: Good. 

The Saints' offense is capable of moving the ball and scoring on just about any defense in the league.  Brees is certain to put up over 4,500 yards; it's merely a question of how close to the record he actually gets this time.

QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots

"Tom Terrific," as some people call him, is off to an incredible start to the 2011 season.  Tom Brady hasn't always been a QB who puts up great stats—he's just a winner.

His best season, as far as stats go, was in 2007 when he threw for 4,806 yards and 50 TDs (he did break the Dan Marino record for TD passes in a season that year).

However, over his 12-year career he has thrown for over 4,000 yards only three times.  That seems kind of low for the three-time Super Bowl winner, doesn't it?

This season, he's off to the best start of his career.  He's already thrown for 1,327 yards and 11 TDs.  That equates to a record-shattering 7,077 yards and 59 TD passes.

Holy schnikes!

Tom really has been Terrific so far!

Key factors:

Receiving targets: Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, Chad Ochocinco and Danny Woodhead.  Welker has been truly amazing this season, and the tight end duo of Hernandez and Gronkowski has been unstoppable (except for the injury to Hernandez).

Much like Brees and the Saints, Brady and the Patriots just have an excellent system for passing.  They can make an average group of receivers look like an all-star team.

Offensive line: Ranked 4th in the league and has only given up three sacks.

Remaining schedule: Brady will have three games facing defenses currently in the top 10 against the pass with two being against their division rival New York Jets.

Chances of Brady breaking the record: Good. 

Actually, his chances are better than good.  At this rate, his chances are outstanding.  If anyone is going to break the record this season, it will be Tom Brady.