NFL Surprise Teams: Contenders, Pretenders

Every year, there are a couple of NFL teams that burst onto the scene, exceed expectations and have a successful season that ends in a playoff berth.  Think Chicago and Kansas City last year, the Jets two years ago and the Arizona Cardinals in 2008.

There is no shortage of contenders for this distinction this year.  So far, Buffalo, San Francisco, Cleveland, Tennessee, Detroit, Oakland and Washington are off to successful, surprising starts (some more surprising than others).

Which teams will you still be talking about in January?  Which will you forget about by Thanksgiving?  Read on.

Buffalo 3-0: Contender

Let's start with the team with the most populated bandwagon as of now.  Buffalo shocked everyone in Week 1 by slapping around the Chiefs in Arrowhead.  The Bills followed it up with a last-second, shootout win against Oakland.  They topped it off an unbelievable win against the Patriots.  The Bills were nine-point home underdogs and trailed by 21.  They picked off Tom Brady four times, which matches Brady's interception total from the entire season last year.

The offense might not have household names on it, but the Bills have put more points on the scoreboard than any other team.  Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing at an all-world level.  He has thrown for 841 yards, nine touchdowns and only three interceptions all year.  The Bills scrapped their dual-back attack for the most part and have decided to go strictly with Fred Jackson.  So far, it has worked, as Jackson has rushed for 303 yards and three scores, and has 115 yards through the air.

The receiving corps isn't flashy, but it is deep.  Stevie Johnson is emerging as one of the top receivers in the league.  David Nelson has 20 grabs in three games.  And an unheralded Donald Jones led the team in yards on Sunday with 101 (also led in targets, with 10).  When all else fails, the Bills can look to their tight end Scott Chandler, who already has four touchdowns.

Most encouragingly, the Bills have already won two games by three points.  Both games they trailed.  They could have been playing good football with only a 1-2 record to show for it, but instead, they're 3-0.  There is something to be said for a team that wins the close games. 

Detroit 3-0: Contender

Detroit needed to overcome a 20-point halftime deficit and needed overtime to dispense of the Vikings on Sunday.  Despite this, the Lions have been impressive this season.

The Lions were a trendy sleeper pick in the offseason.  Usually, those teams end up being a disappointment, but the Lions have delivered for their supporters.

Matthew Stafford is finally delivering on his potential.  The third-year QB has thrown for 977 yards and nine touchdowns. 

The weapons around him are plentiful.  Of course, they have all-world Calvin Johnson.  Additionally, they add rookie WR Titus Young, athletic TE Brandon Pettigrew and Jahvid Best, who, like Stafford, has battled injuries in the past, but is showing how productive he can be when healthy.

And the defense is living up to its billing.  The Lions fell behind 20-0, true, but they also held the Vikings to two early field goals.  After that, the Vikings didn't score until a field goal with 71 seconds left.  They have allowed only 15.3 points per game, the best in the NFC.

San Francisco 2-1: Pretender

This distinction comes with a bit of an asterisk.  Although I do not think the Niners are a great team, they seem to be the best team in the West as of now.  If not for a fourth-quarter meltdown, they could be sitting at 3-0.

However, there is a reason they blew the Dallas game and won an ugly 13-8 game in Cincinnati today. 

The offense has continued to struggle.  Alex Smith has been his typical self, throwing for only 168 yards per game.  Frank Gore has been unimpressive, rushing for 148 yards and one touchdown on the season, and the team still lacks any playmaking ability at receiver.

The Niners are a mixed bag defensively.  On one hand, they've only allowed 52 points on the season and have the No. 1 rushing defense.  On the other hand, they have played Seattle and Cincinnati, and did blow the game to an injured Tony Romo.

Expect the Niners to finish around 7-9.  Like last year, this could be good enough to win the division and earn a game in Candlestick park in the playoffs.

Oakland 2-1: Contender

When its all said and done, Oakland could have the best rushing attack in the NFL this season.

It all starts with Darren McFadden, who has already rushed for 393 yards.  Michael Bush is used more frequently on the goal line and already has two scores on the season.

Jason Campbell is never going to wow anyone, but he's turning into a more consistent quarterback.  He is capable of making a play or two and is turning the ball over less.

The defense shut down the Jets' running game on Sunday.  It shut down the Broncos offense the first week.  Basically, if you're not named Fred Jackson, you're not running on the defense.

The front four has been great, led by a reinvigorated Richard Seymour.  MLB Rolando McClain has developed into the prime-time player the Raiders hoped he would.

Its still early, of course, but the Raiders are my pick to win the AFC West.

Cleveland 2-1: Pretender

Cleveland has looked downright putrid at times.  Nevertheless, the Browns are 2-1.

After rebounding from a blowout loss Week 1 to the Bengals, the Browns took advantage of a Peyton Manning-less Colts team and scored with less than a minute left to beat the Dolphins by one this weekend.

The strength of the Browns remains to be their pass defense.  They have allowed only an average of 191 yards per game through the air.

Offensively, they still do not have the weapons to challenge teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  Colt McCoy is not fully matured, and while Mohamed Massaquoi and Reggie Cribbs are capable of a big play, they have yet to show the consistency necessary.

When Peyton Hillis is healthy, he remains a dangerous runner.  Cleveland's ability to run the ball, combined with its pass defense, will keep it in a lot of games.  It just won't be enough to finish ahead of the big boys in the division.

Tennessee 2-1: Pretender

The Titans suffered a major blow when they lost Kenny Britt for the season on Sunday.  He was playing as the biggest threat on the offense, as Chris Johnson has been MIA for the season.

It is hard to believe that the team who has the man who rushed for 2,000 yards two years ago is dead last in rushing offense, but it is true.  Couple this with their main threat being out for the season, and Matt Hasselbeck and Nate Washington required to carry the offense, and you can see the Titans may be in trouble.

Their defense is playing great, though, and that is how they got to 2-1.  They have held the Jaguars, Ravens and Broncos to 16, 14 and 14 points, respectively.  Cortland Finnegan, Jason McCourty and Barrett Ruud are some of the stars.

The division is shaping up to be a two-team race between the Titans and Texans.  Despite the great defense, I give a slight edge right now to the Texans.

Washington 2-0: Contender

Washington may be my favorite team on this list.  The Redskins have a nice blend of young talent and veteran leadership that makes them a legitimate threat to win the NFC East.

Let's start with the veterans.  London Fletcher is playing as good of football as I've seen this year.  DeAngelo Hall remains a lockdown threat, and Santana Moss still has some big-play abilitiy.

As far as youth goes, the Skins are loaded.  Ryan Kerrigan has already made an impact with an interception for a touchdown against the Giants.  Brian Orakpo provides a threat off the edge, and Roy Helu is an effective spell running back.

Between the old and young is a collection of talent.  Fred Davis is finally emerging as one of the better tight ends in the game.  Rocky McIntosh and Reed Doughty have been tough up the middle on the defense.  And, of course, there is Tim Hightower, a cast-off from Arizona who is liking his role in a Mike Shanahan offense.

Of course, whenever the Skins are brought up, the discussion will inevitably come back to Rex Grossman.  It really shouldn't, though.  He isn't the greatest quarterback, but he isn't as bad as the media makes him out to be.  He's capable, and so far he is doing a good job dispensing the ball to the plethora of weapons the Skins have.  That's all he needs to do, and the Skins will win the NFC East.