Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings and Projections: Final Guide to Sunday's Games

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Todd Haley often refers to the season as four separate quarters; if the opening quarter goes well, then they know they should be able to maintain that rhythm. If not, they know that changes are necessary and that it’s not just a matter of game circumstances.

If that’s the case, then Week 3 in fantasy football should be near the end of the first quarter, especially for teams starting their playoffs early to avoid losing key players whose team benches them after home field advantage is in the bag.

With a number of solid passing teams facing questionable secondaries, this week brings a number of high-scoring games both on the field and in fantasy stats.

The right quarterback and/or receiver should bring an edge over your opponent; the wrong one could sink your chances right off the bat.

That being said, here are my top 25 picks for this week’s fantasy matchups. If you have these guys, start them. If not, good luck.

And if you happen to find anyone somehow on the waiver wire, count your blessings.

No. 25: Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

Chris Johnson hasn't been able to get started up yet this season. His 2.3 yards per carry are a far cry from his 4.9 career average.

If the long holdout didn't slow him down, then maybe all those extra dollars in his pocket are doing the trick.

Johnson might not be playing quite like his team and fantasy owners are used to, but he should look more like himself against a soft Denver run defense.

Projections: 90 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving, 1 touchdown

Fantasy Projection: 16 points

No. 24: Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers

The last two weeks, Aaron Rodgers switched between Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings as his preferred target. With Chicago looking to test a suspect Green Bay pass defense, the Packers will rely on Jennings or Nelson for the bulk of their yards to overcome the Bears this weekend.

My money’s on Jennings, the more established of the two receivers, to hit it big on stats against Chicago. Rodgers will look to the player he knows best when pressure comes as they play their division rival.

Projections: 110 yards receiving, 1 touchdown

Fantasy Projection: 17 points

No. 23: Defense, San Diego Chargers

Fantasy football, like the NFL, is now all about the quarterback.

The adage about how "defense wins championships" doesn't apply so much anymore in today's game; there's just too much speed, too many quarterbacks able to throw the deep ball, and too many rules in favor of the offense for it to be otherwise.

But this week, those fantasy football owners who discount San Diego's defense's potential as a game-changer will regret it.

Last year, San Diego led the league in defense (and offense for that matter), and have an axe to grind against Kansas City and their surprise AFC West title.

And the Chiefs are a model of dysfunction right now. With three of their key starters out for the season, a complete lack of technique on both sides of the ball, and rumors swirling of animosity between their head coach and front office, Kansas City represents a "slump buster" of epic proportions.

The Chargers will break out of their habitual early-season malaise and control this game in all aspects. Kansas City will likely leave with another player headed to injured reserve, and put another nail in the coffin for Todd Haley's career.

Projections: 6 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery

Fantasy Projections: 17

No. 22: Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills

Last year, Steve Johnson provided one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season. The former seventh-round pick exploded onto the scene last year, providing Ryan Fitzpatrick with a go-to receiver and the Bills with a passing offense capable of competing in an already-tight AFC East.

Johnson continued right where he left off, with 162 yards and a pair of touchdowns already this season.  Those numbers would likely be even higher if it weren't for the complete dismantling Buffalo provided Kansas City in Week 1.

There's no reason to believe Johnson or his opponent, the New England Patriots, will change this weekend. Johnson faces a highly suspect passing defense, and the Bills own the emotional factor after losing 31-3 to the Patriots last year.

Projection: 120 yards receiving, 1 touchdown

Fantasy Projection: 18 points

No. 21: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

Third time is apparently the charm for Detroit.

After unsuccessfully drafting a wide receiver twice in the first round, the Lions hit pay dirt with Calvin Johnson. The tall, sure-handed receiver put up solid numbers already in his career despite injuries to quarterback Matt Stafford.

So far, though, Detroit’s kept Stafford healthy, which means Johnson should enjoy some of the best statistics of his career.

This week will keep the yards coming as the Lions shut down a division rival already on the ropes.

Projections: 120 yards receiving, 1 touchdown

Fantasy Projection: 18 points

No. 20: Deion Branch, New England Patriots

Deion Branch missed New England much more than the Patriots missed Branch.

After a five-year sabbatical in Seattle, Branch returned to New England in hopes of resurrecting his career.

Which definitely ranks as a good idea. Last year, Branch posted his highest number of yards since 2006; his five touchdowns were more than he ever caught in Seattle.

Branch could easily top 1,000 yards receiving for the first time in his career the way this season is going.

New England's game against Buffalo will keep him on that track. In what is certain to be a high-yardage, high scoring division contest, Branch will maintain his 111 yards per game average and reach the end zone for the first time this season.

Projection: 140 yards receiving, 1 touchdown

Fantasy Projection: 20 points

No. 19: Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Despite having all the pieces to finally displace Indianapolis atop the AFC South, the Texans have yet to really get their passing game rolling.

Not that they’ve really needed to.  Drawing the Manning-less Colts and Dolphins to start the season, Houston has done just fine with Ben Tate anchoring the offense in place of Arian Foster.

That won’t get it done this week. New Orleans doesn’t necessarily have the defense to hold the Texans back, but they’ll have to score quickly and often to keep up with Drew Brees.

Matt Schaub won’t quite break the 300-yard mark, but he’ll come close in what should be a high-scoring game. Tate should get the majority of the short-yardage looks though, which will impact his touchdowns.

Projections: 280 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception

Fantasy Projection:  21 points

No. 18: Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals

At the end of last year, Arizona found themselves in desperate need of a quarterback. If they didn’t land a quality passer, the Cardinals would be staring a full rebuild dead in the face.

Rather than draft a rookie, they chose to trade for Kevin Kolb, and the Cardinals now look like a team on the slow but sure upswing. Securing Kolb gave Larry Fitzgerald the needed incentive to remain in Arizona, and former first-round pick Beanie Wells might finally start earning his first-round contract.

Kolb will pick on a soft Seattle defense, rewarding their faith in the former Eagles backup.

Projections: 250 yards passing, 2 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 22 points

No. 17: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

The next pick is QB Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints.

Houston faces their first real challenge of the season. So far, they've bested an average Miami Dolphins squad and a headless Indianapolis Colts.

Drew Brees will remind the Texans why they have never gotten over the Peyton Manning "hump" and won the AFC South.

Projections: 350 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception

Fantasy Projection: 24 points

No. 16: Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals

Since his rookie year, Beanie Wells looked like yet another first-round bust for Arizona.

Paired with Kevin Kolb, though, Wells might finally shed that undesirable title this year.

So far, Wells has produced a rushing attack that the Cardinals have lacked, arguably since their days in St. Louis.

Seattle has issues on both sides of the ball, which should have the Cardinals protecting a solid lead by halftime. Wells will get his number called often in the second half and make his fantasy football owners very happy.

Projections: 120 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns

Fantasy Projections: 26 points

No. 15: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Since becoming Jacksonville’s premier back three years ago, Maurice Jones-Drew surpassed 1,600 combined yards from scrimmage each season. For all intents and purposes, he’s provided the bulk of the Jaguars’ offense, which is part of the reason the Jaguars remain an afterthought in the AFC South.

Jacksonville is looking to change that, and started with drafting Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert will start this Sunday, but that’s due more to the ineptitude of Luke McCown rather than any positive signs that Gabbert is ready to run an NFL offense.

So until Gabbert develops in a pro style offense, Jones-Drew will continue to shoulder the burden. That will be difficult against a formidable Carolina front four.

Jones-Drew should see more looks in the passing game, however, as Gabbert will fall back on his spread offense background when under pressure; what’s more, Carolina’s depleted linebacker corps will have their hands full once Jones-Drew gets into space.

Projections: 90 yards rushing, 50 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 26 points

No. 14: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills

Chan Gailey probably picked Ryan Fitzpatrick in his fantasy draft. And he’s laughing at everyone who didn’t.

The Harvard graduate and seventh-round pick built on last year’s success quickly; Fitzpatrick hasn’t crossed the 300-yard mark yet this season, but when you throw for seven touchdowns in two games, what does it matter?

Granted, Fitzpatrick worked over the Chiefs and Raiders to put the Bills at 2-0, but this week’s opponent, New England, has hemorrhaged passing yards to Miami and San Diego already this season.

The Bills will throw the ball over and over again in what should be a 60-minute touchdown montage.

And everyone wondered why Buffalo didn’t draft a quarterback this year.

Projection: 360 yards passing, 35 yards rushing, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception

Fantasy Projection: 27

No. 13: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Seahawks fans lost out when Arizona traded for Kevin Kolb.

Kolb’s relocation to the desert kept Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona for the rest of his career, and the Cardinals’ gain is the Seahawks’ loss. Arguably the best receiver in the NFL, Arizona parlayed Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner for a shot at the Super Bowl three years ago.

Now Fitzgerald has another quality quarterback to get him the ball, and will hammer Seattle’s deficient defense this Sunday and for seasons to come.

Projections: 150 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns

Fantasy Projections: 27 points

No. 12: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

Not since Jim McMahon has a Bears player been more maligned. Jay Cutler helped Chicago reach the NFC Championship last year.

After the game, though, Cutler was greeted with YouTube videos of his jersey on fire instead of thank you cards as fans, media and other players crucified Cutler for coming out of the game with what was later described as an MCL sprain.

Rodney Dangerfield, anyone?

Cutler sees his first action against Green Bay since that game, and should post considerably better numbers than his six-completion, 80-yard performance last January.

Chicago should test the Packers deep, who allowed over 400 passing yards in consecutive games this season.

Projection: 320 yards passing, 10 yards rushing, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions

Fantasy Projection: 27 points

No. 11: Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers

Kansas City can't get anything right yet this season. They don't protect the ball, can't catch, can't tackle and can't stay healthy.

Vincent Jackson will take advantage of those latter two. Without Eric Berry to provide deep support, Jackson should find himself open deep, or in one-on-one coverage against the talented but shorter Brandon Flowers.

Projections: 160 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 28 points

No. 10: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

The Packers haven’t been playing the best defense of late, surrendering 400 yards passing in each of their games so far this season.

Fortunately, Aaron Rodgers is plenty capable of matching his opponents yard-for-yard.

Rodgers faces a Chicago defense that is a shadow of its former self, and will benefit from having his offensive weapons healthy, unlike last year’s injury-riddled Super Bowl run.

Look for Rodgers to put the ball deep to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson repeatedly and outdistance Jay Cutler, who has been forced to rely mostly on Matt Forte as his primary receiver.

Projections:  340 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception

Fantasy Projection: 29 points

No. 9: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles

The New York Giants have only one real hope to compete in this week’s game against the Eagles.

They’ll need to blitz, then blitz again, and blitz some more. Philadelphia’s patchwork offensive line should provide plenty of opportunities to harass Michael Vick and force him out of the pocket.

But it’ll also open rushing lanes for LeSean McCoy. With a greater emphasis on the running game present in Philadelphia, McCoy will find himself in space outside the tackles and in prime position to embarrass New York’s injury-depleted linebacker and secondary corps.

Projections: 120 yards rushing, 55 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 29 points

No. 8: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

Not too terribly long ago, I had someone tell me that Matt Forte was a poor man’s Adrian Peterson. I laughed; Forte hasn’t broken 1,200 rushing yards since his rookie year.

Forte is the one laughing now. His rushing yards aren’t anything to throw parades over, but he’s quickly become Jay Cutler’s favorite target in the passing game. He has 15 receptions so far this season, the same amount as Chicago's top three receivers and tight end combined.

Green Bay might be the reigning Super Bowl champion, but they're not stopping anyone from throwing. Forte will actually lose some receptions this week as Cutler finds more success completing downfield.

Projection: 80 yards rushing, 90 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 29 points

No. 7: Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers

No one is happier about Cam Newton and the offensive shift towards the passing game. After years of substandard quarterbacking, Smith finally has someone to get him the ball and a coach who will put him in position to make plays.

Smith’s numbers show that Newton looks for him first, and he’ll continue to do that against Jacksonville. He’s fast returning to the ranks of elite fantasy receivers, after sitting out in free agency most if not all of last year.

Projections: 170 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 29 points

No. 6: Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens

Last week, Baltimore's offense faltered against the Tennessee Titans. They'll have no such problems Sunday against the St. Louis Rams.

That's because while the Ravens are certainly Joe Flacco's team, Ray Rice handles the heavy lifting on offense, and the Rams rank dead last against the run.

Rice is already on pace for 1,200 rushing yards for his third consecutive year, and has already reached the end zone three times.

He'll have no problem finding it against St. Louis.

Projection: 130 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 29 points

No. 5: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

For years, Detroit has tried to dig themselves out of the NFL’s Island of Forgotten Teams.

This year finally looks like their year, and it’s because they’re protecting Matt Stafford.

Stafford has yet to be sacked so far this season, and the Lions are reaping the benefits. The Lions are 2-0, and will chalk up their third win this week against a Minnesota team that just won’t be able to keep up with Detroit’s offensive weapons.

Projections: 320 yards passing, 3 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 30 points

No. 4: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

I've already made the case (twice) about Kansas City's dysfunction.

The Chargers know they need to start hitting their stride early in the season this year to prevent another upstart team from stealing the AFC West title, and possibly to keep Norv Turner out of the hot seat in San Diego.

Philip Rivers will take advantage of a Chiefs secondary missing Eric Berry and hit his receivers deep through most of the game.

Projections: 310 yards passing, 10 yards rushing, 3 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 31 points

No. 3: Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Tom Brady needs a new nickname: The Red Baron.

That’s because Brady’s aerial onslaught deserves the name of Baron von Richthofen’s “Flying Circus.”

It’s really about the only way to describe it. Brady twice decimated opponents, nearing the 1,000-yard mark with 14 games remaining in the season. He also has seven touchdowns and only one interception to add to his impressive 2011 stats.

While other quarterbacks are projected to have higher numbers, there is no safer bet than Tom Brady this or any other week.

Projection: 400 yards passing, 3 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 34 points

No. 2: Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles

Fantasy owners started hyperventilating once Michael Vick went down last week against Atlanta.

They should breathe more easily now; Vick’s concussion tests came up negative, green lighting him for Sunday’s game against division rival New York Giants.

Not that it would terribly matter. New York could almost field an entire defensive squad with their injured reserve players—eight players are already out for the season, including Jonathan Goff and Terrell Thomas.

That makes it open season on the G-Men for the Eagles, and Vick will certainly take advantage. He might not move as quickly this Sunday as he did last week, but “slow” for Vick is still faster than 80 percent of the players in the NFL.

Look for Vick to victimize New York’s depleted secondary with numerous deep patterns, and run for at least one score when the Eagles’ sub-par offensive line lets one of the Giants’ front four through.

Projection: 250 yards passing, 60 yards rushing, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 fumble

Fantasy Projection: 36 points

No. 1: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

No rookie has lit up opposing defenses quite like Cam Newton. Carolina’s No. 1 draft pick this year is making up for his limited college playing time by slinging the ball all over the field.

Newton already has 83 pass attempts this season; at this rate, he’ll throw the ball over 664 times. That’s nearly 400 more attempts than he made last season for Auburn.

That pattern isn’t likely to change. Newton has yet to win a game, but the Panthers show signs of life even though their defense took major hits with the losses of Ron Edwards, Thomas Davis and Jon Beason.

So long as Newton keeps making plays, coach Ron Rivera will keep putting the ball in his hands. He might not surpass the 400-yard mark for the third consecutive week, but Newton will still put up big numbers as Carolina enters a shootout with the Jaguars.

Projection: 325 yards passing, 20 yards rushing, 4 touchdowns

Fantasy Projection: 39 points