Fantasy Football: Why Quarterbacks Are Now the Key To Winning Your League

Every year the general formula to winning your fantasy league has been simple. However, this year is going to be different. This year it's a quarterbacks league. That's because the NFL is becoming more and more a quarterbacks league. 

It's a trend that's been generally occurring for the last several years, but after Week 1 it's apparent that this year, it's official—quarterbacks have officially surpassed the running backs.

Year	Passing Yards	Rushing Yards	Total Yards	Percent Passing Yards	Passing Plays	Rushing Plays	Total Plays	Percent Passing Plays
2002	212.2	116.1	328.3	64.64%	33.80	27.5	61.3	55.14%
2003	200.4	117.9	318.3	62.96%	32.20	28.3	60.5	53.22%
2004	210.5	116.6	327.1	64.35%	31.00	28.2	59.2	52.36%
2005	203.5	112.5	316	64.40%	32.20	28.1	60.3	53.40%
2006	204.8	117.3	322.1	63.58%	32.00	28.2	60.2	53.16%
2007	214.3	110.9	325.2	65.90%	33.30	27.3	60.6	54.95%
2008	211.3	116	327.3	64.56%	32.30	27.6	59.9	53.92%
2009	218.5	116.7	335.2	65.18%	33.30	27.5	60.8	54.77%
2010	221.6	114.5	336.1	65.93%	33.70	27.2	60.9	55.34%
2011	245.1	105.3	350.4	69.95%	34.90	25.6	60.5	57.69%

For the last decade, for the most part, it's been an average of around 65 percent of all yards being gained on the ground and somewhere in the neighborhood of 54 percent of all plays being through the air and 46 percent on the ground. Now that break is closer to 58 percent through air and 42 percent on the ground. 

That translates into a corresponding 10 percent drop in production on the ground and a 10 percent increase through the air.

You might be thinking, "That's all very well and good, Kelly, but my league is all about touchdowns and those still come on the ground." 

Year	TDs Passing	TDs Rushing	Total TDs	Percent Passing TDs
2011	1.7	0.7	2.4	70.83%
2010	1.5	0.8	2.3	65.22%
2009	1.4	0.8	2.2	63.64%
2008	1.3	0.9	2.2	59.09%
2007	1.4	0.8	2.2	63.64%
2006	1.3	0.8	2.1	61.90%
2005	1.3	0.8	2.1	61.90%
2004	1.4	0.8	2.2	63.64%
2003	1.3	0.8	2.1	61.90%
2002	1.4	0.9	2.3	60.87%

If anything, the distinction is even more pronounced in terms of touchdowns. The trend is up in the last two years from about 1.35 passing TDs per game to 1.7, and the rushing TDs are down about .2. That's closer to a 20 percent change in each direction.

Furthermore, that's also the growing trend to split carries. That means that while the starting quarterback is getting the exclusive benefit of all the fantasy points, your starting running back is getting touches taken away. The era of the dominant fantasy football running back that grabs wins for your team week to week is over.

In 2003 five of the top 10 fantasy performers were running backs. Last year the only running back that was in the top 10 was Arian Foster—and that was if you were in a league that only awarded four points for a passing TD.

Now, the other challenge that could come to mind is that this is only the first week and it's an overreaction to the first week of the season.

To that point, I have two responses. First, this is a monkey-see, monkey-do league. Teams copy what wins. Look at the teams who have won the Super Bowl in the last two years—the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints. What do they have in common?

The other response is that if you wait until there's a large enough sample size to justify making a trade, it's going to be too late. The trend is there before this year.

Teams are going more to the pass than the rush. If you pass on the early opportunity to take advantage of this, you lose your chance to win your league. However, if you rush to make a trade, you have a great chance to win.

Right now if you're sitting Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson and you are sitting on a second-tier quarterback, don't hesitate to bundle them together for a combination of a second-tier running back and a top-tier quarterback.

This is the year that fantasy football became all about the quarterback.