Fantasy Football 2011: Matt Cassel Will Be a Bust

Okay, yes, I just wrote an article on how Kansas City will dominate in Sunday's game, and Matt Cassel should factor into that. Buffalo's third-ranked pass defense related more to their porous run defense rather than any stifling secondary or aggressive pass rush.

But fantasy football isn't about who wins; it's all about the stats, and Matt Cassel will be hard pressed to duplicate his numbers in 2011.

First off, Cassel might earn more points in the locker room by playing through injury (not that he needs them after last year's post-appendectomy appearance), but it won't necessarily earn fantasy team owners an edge over their opponents. Already a running team, expect the Chiefs to rely on short, quick passes to keep defenses honest while leaving the heavy lifting to their platoon of solid running backs, at least until Cassel is back to full speed in (and out of) the pocket.

The quartet of running backs will likewise limit Cassel's production for fantasy leagues. Kansas City's workhorse Thomas Jones and the explosive Jamaal Charles already accounted for the league's top rushing offense. Now, the Chiefs have speedster Dexter McCluster working more out of the backfield, and added star fullback Le'Ron McClain. That's a lot of running backs to keep happy with touches, especially since McClain left Baltimore looking for a bigger role.

McClain should especially factor into red zone carries as well, handling the ball on plays which would have been passes to Tony Moeaki last year. All three of Moeaki's touchdowns came when the Chiefs operated inside the 20.

Kansas City also faces steeper competition against the pass. While Cassel benefited from soft pass defenses last year like the Broncos, Jaguars and Titans, 2011 will tell a different story.

Last year, the Bears, Chargers, Packers and Steelers played against the pass better than any other teams in the league; opposing quarterbacks averaged a meager 72.7 quarterback rating. All four of these teams match up against the Chiefs this year.

The schedule doesn't do Cassel any favors, either. Kansas City kicks off a five-game run against the top AFC and NFC teams from 2010 right as fantasy teams are making their playoff runs.

Finally, Cassel just doesn't match up to the other quarterbacks in the league; not this year. With a finally-healthy Matt Stafford, an emerging Sam Bradford and others, Cassel rates no better than 15th for fantasy purposes. That rates him just well enough for bye-week coverage or injury replacement in standard leagues, and a free agent in my friendly eight-person league.

The best owners can hope for is a playoff boost when Cassel matches up against a Raiders team without Nnamdi Asomugha and a rebuilding Broncos. Just make sure to wait until around Week 13 before bringing him in.