2011 Fantasy Football Draft: Michael Vick and 5 Players You Shouldn't Reach for

If blood is boiling through your skin because of this article's headline and photo combination, don't worry. That's normal.

The one disclaimer I'll make to address that inevitable anger is this: I would love to have every single one of these players on my fantasy team. Every single one.

Any true fantasy football expert will tell you that winning leagues starts with the draft. Correctly analyzing lesser known players to find value in later rounds will go a long way in besting your peers week in and week out. These are the endlessly discussed "sleepers", and are written about ad nauseum.

What gets lost in all the "sleeper-talk", however, is the other extreme that I'll call "reachers." More owners seem more concerned about finding that "sleeper" diamond in the rough, instead of being stuck with the "reacher" fool's gold of early rounds. The latter is just as important as the former, but is rarely addressed.

So take a deep breath, and let your emotions go while you're viewing this slideshow. Emotions have no place in analyzing numbers. And after all, isn't that just what fantasy football is?

1) Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles

The cornerstone of one of the most polarizing comeback stories of recent history also scored more  fantasy points per game than any other player in the NFL last season. So how could any draft pick for Michael Vick possibly be considered a reach?

Because Vick's 2010 was one of the strangest statistical outliers of recent memory. In his eighth season, Vick set career highs in passing yards, completion percentage, touchdowns and quarterback rating. And they far exceeded his previous marks. It was a dream season for the "dream team" quarterback.

The problem is, Vick may have done himself a disservice from a fantasy perspective by excelling. And call me crazy, but that turns me off to Vick more than it turns me on to him.

Much of fantasy football domination is knowing how to balance risk and reward. From a statistical standpoint, a quarterback who is coming off of his first truly elite season after taking eight years to do so sounds more like an anomaly than an indication of future success.

I'm not saying that Michael Vick can't have an elite season, just that it's possible for him not to. Guys like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are virtual locks to have top-tier numbers, and I want my first round picks to have as close of a risk to zero as possible. They should be the quarterbacks worth taking first.

If Vick has a significant drop off from last season, he will still be a viable fantasy starter. But are you still willing to sacrifice a pick for him that could get you someone who is almost guaranteed to rank in the top two or three in terms of fantasy points?

When the second round of the draft rolls around, and if he is still available, I would nab him. Just make sure Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are off the board first.

2) Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions

The season-ending injury to rookie Mikell Leshoure has had Jahvid Best shooting up everyone's draft boards. This removes some of the clutter from the Detroit backfield and has Best's enthusiasts fastening their seat belts for what could be a huge season for the speedy sophomore. I would ease up on the gas just a bit, though.

Best failed to meet expectations in  his rookie season, averaging mere decimal points over three yards per carry, and battled a nagging turf toe injury all season long.

And before the argument of "But he was injured, imagine what he'll do when healthy!" is presented, I'll ask why I should ever bank on him being healthy. He has a rich injury history dating back to his college days, and his 199-pound frame will not do much to quell that concern, nor will it suggest that the Detroit personnel will trust him enough to give him 20 touches per game.

In fact, the very act of trading up to the second round to snag Leshoure in the first place speaks volumes about the front office's belief that Best is not a back who will handle heavy workloads. I expect Detroit to feed Aaron Brown and Maurice Morris now that Leshoure is gone, but it remains to be seen who will get the bulk of the workload.

Best still has value, especially in PPR leagues, but treat him more as a Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles type of contributor. If you're looking for a solid number three running back, then Best would be nice to have. Just don't reach early and expect him to be that feature back every owner dreams of.

3) Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks

I love Sidney Rice. His huge 6'4" frame and vertical ability makes him a receiver that corners across the league are almost incapable of covering deep. The huge arm of new and old teammate Tarvaris Jackson could make this a fantasy match made in heaven.

That is, until you realize that Tarvaris Jackson is Tarvaris Jackson.

Recent history indicates that great receivers with garbage quarterbacks are prone to big drop-offs. Take a look at Larry Fitzgerald's 2010. Oddly enough, his yards and receptions stayed similar to what he produced with Kurt Warner at the helm the year before. The touchdowns, however, dropped significantly to a total of just six, and killed much of his fantasy value.

Rice could also face much more competition in the red zone from other big targets such as Mike Williams, Ben Obomanu and the newly acquired Zach Miller. Even in the terrible NFC West, there may not be enough touchdowns to go around in Seattle to give Rice a monster season. He should still have a very productive year, but enough for you to make him your No. 1?

Oh, and we've seen the Jackson/Rice tandem before in 2008. It wasn't pretty then—why should it be now?

4) Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers

Possibly the biggest fantasy "reacher" of 2010 came in the form of this Fresno State product. Mathews served as the perfect example of why having ideal playing time does not always make a fantasy running back attractive.

Often snagged in the third and even second round of drafts, Mathews disappointed all of his owners who took this risk by starting just nine times and netting 56.5 yards rushing per game. Add five fumbles to the mix, and you could hear the collective noise of head-banging owners who chose Mathews instead of taking a smarter chance on Arian Foster.

Despite a disappointing campaign, Mathews still finds himself in an opportunity to receive a massive workload, although the leash may be a bit shorter this year. Regardless, he remains high on quite a few draft boards.

Except now, concerning reports continue to surface, indicating Mathews is out of shape and sore. Mathews' physical tangibles used to be the reason people are so high on his fantasy potential. But now, things he does not appear to give owners that same encouraging feeling. Opportunity isn't everything, and better options need to be considered before wasting a precious early pick on an unproven youngster.

5) DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles

How exciting of a player is DeSean Jackson? He is a staple in highlight reels over the past two years, and has provided enough plays which make it near impossible to owners to ignore the urge to click the "draft" button if his name is still on the board.

But it's an urge that is worth suppressing in the first few rounds.

Jackson is an intriguing and bizarre case that stat boys like myself love. He has made himself a marquee name solely because of his big play ability, but his lack of consistency leaves much to be desired (he dropped almost 20 percent of the passes he was thrown last season). But because he seems to have a huge catch every other week, that fact is lost on many fans.

In many cases, these big plays bail him out of an otherwise pedestrian effort. In fact, there is a massive drop-off in production against teams with capable secondaries. Jackson has feasted upon terrible pass defenses, but has also repeatedly been neutralized by good and even just decent ones.

Jackson will have five games against teams that ranked in the top 10 in pass defense last year. That doesn't even include a contest against the New England Patriots and one against the Chicago Bears, who held him to just 26 yards on two catches in last year's meeting.

And I'll reiterate—I would love to start Jackson on my team, but seeing him selected over more consistent threats like Mike Wallace, Reggie Wayne, and Larry Fitzgerald turns my stomach in knots. Is it worth the nail-biting to wait for a 90 yard play that probably won't happen against stout defenses? How much longer can something so rare keep happening?

Bank on a receiver who will almost always give you 12-15 points each week (assuming you're in a PPR league) rather than a guy who will give you six to eight with an outside chance he'll give you 30.