NHL Predictions: Detroit Red Wings Will Be Solidly Fragile Stanley Cup Contender

With NHL training camps a little over a month away, making predictions of any kind is a little ridiculous.

As team's rosters are still in flux even throughout training camp, making summertime predictions as to who will do what during the season and into the playoffs is foolhardy at best.

Predictions are, at their core, nothing more than wild guesses.

There is virtually nothing of intelligence that can be said about a team prior to the season starting.

In fact, I'd venture to say that even when the season does begin, only marginally cogent arguments can be made about the direction a team is destined for.

The fortunes of a team's season, a playoff series, even a single game can change so completely and without warning that even the most well-informed and statistically probable predictions often turn out to be nothing more than fantasy.

I guess that's what makes NHL hockey an incredibly exciting sport to follow, but a terrible one to bet on.

Despite my efforts to drastically downplay the validity of NHL predictions, I am, quite clearly, attempting to offer one with regards to the Detroit Red Wings.

However, unlike most predictions, I'll venture to say that this one is not merely possible, but highly probable.

So much so that I'd go so far as to call this a guarantee.

As long as Detroit's best players remain healthy throughout the season, the Red Wings will be serious Stanley Cup contenders.

That's a bit anti-climactic, isn't it?

Why didn't I just build this up to tell you that water is wet, or the sky is blue or some other such factoid that is so completely obvious as to impart virtually no useful information whatsoever?

If you feel this way, I can understand.

But, if you'll indulge me, you'll see that this prediction is not as obvious as it appears.

Certainly the Red Wings, or any team for that matter, need their best players on the ice to win a Stanley Cup.

Additionally, it's quite a simple task to look at a very strong roster on paper and posit that so long as they're healthy, they'll be able to challenge for a championship.

Both of these things can be said about the Red Wings, but this is not what I'm saying about them here.

No, what I'm referring to is the fact that a lengthy injury dealt to Pavel Datsyuk or Henrik Zetterberg in November might be all it takes to deny the team a shot to win the Cup in June.

As we have seen the past two seasons, the Red Wings have had next to no luck in the injury department.

In the past two years, the Red Wings have amassed nearly 600 man games lost as the result of injuries.

To put a finer point on it, the Red Wings have played each of the last 164 regular season games missing an average of three players each game.

Among those missing have not only been Datsyuk and Zetterberg, but other key players such as Johan Franzen, Niklas Kronwall, Dan Cleary, Jimmy Howard and Brad Stuart.

While the Red Wings have rallied from missing their best players in the short run, in the long run their absences have not been something the team has been able to overcome.

Most recently, the Red Wings entered the first round of the 2010-11 playoffs without Henrik Zetterberg and though they swept the Phoenix Coyotes in four games, the absence of Zetterberg and his time away from the action of playoff hockey was apparent in their loss to the San Jose Sharks in round two.

Similarly, lingering injuries to Franzen (ankle), Datsyuk (hand) and Cleary (ankle) limited their effectiveness in the playoffs.

All players play through an injury at some point, but even if the pain can be ignored, the limited mechanics of an ankle or wrist cannot be compensated for.

At their best, the Detroit Red Wings are a well-oiled machine, capable of amazingly effective production and performance.

However, the same can be said of a Formula-One race car or a fighter jet.

Like those vehicles, the Red Wings can only operate to their potential if every piece of the machine is doing it's job and is in top condition.

Decrease the tire-pressure by just a few PSI in a Formula-1 car and it's in danger of crashing at top speed.

Put just a tiny crack in a jet's turbine blade and the whole engine might explode.

Conversely, Jeeps and armored tanks are far less nimble and elegant than their aforementioned counterparts, but they can sustain heavy damage and run under below-optimal conditions and still get the job done.

As they have been for the better part of two decades, the Detroit Red Wings are constructed as a high-performance machine, and, as such, expectations for their success is reasonably justified.

Nevertheless, like any other such machine, they are fragile, high-maintenance and require each part to be in top condition less the total performance fall far below its potential.

So, as the season begins, be sure to think about this if and when another big injury befalls the team.

Even if they get the part back, it will be weaker and less optimal than it was prior to breaking.

As I conclude this prediction, I'm staring up at a picture of Steve Yzerman lifting the Stanley Cup over his head in 2002 and am reminded of the fact that he did this, essentially, missing a right knee.

The Red Wings machine has had some of its best parts severely broken and still arrived in first place at the finish line, it's true.

Sadly, that part, No. 19, is out of production and nothing close has yet been built to replace it.

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