2011 NFL Predictions: Which Rookies on Detroit Lions Roster Will Make Final Cut?

Never before have the periods of signing players to an NFL team and cutting them off it come so close together.

We're barely a week removed from the opening of the NFL free-agency period, and suddenly it's time to start looking forward to roster cuts.

The preseason is less than a week away, which means it will take less than a month for each NFL team to trim their roster to the requisite 53-man limit.

It may be easier to predict that roster for the Detroit Lions this year than in years past. There is more talent on the roster than in years past, and unlike the "nobody is safe" feeling that surrounded the 2009 training camp, this year there are some unspoken certainties about who make make the cut.

I don't really see Ndamukong Suh or Jahvid Best getting cut, even if they have a weak camp. Just for example.

But there is a collection of rookies on the roster (most of them UDFAs) that have neither a zero or a 100 percent chance of making the roster. Of course, most of them are camp fodder, and if there's a guy in camp who isn't listed here, that's as good as giving him a zero percent chance at making the roster.

An example of this might be receiver Dominique Barnes, who put receivers coach Shawn Jefferson in an apoplectic rage with his inability to so much as budge a blocking sled.

But this is, of course, about the rookies who have a shot. For starters...

Nick Fairley, Titus Young and Mikel Leshoure

These guys should be grouped in together, because they're high-profile, and there's no way they get cut out of training camp.

Of course, Titus Young and Nick Fairley are both battling lingering injuries, and those will affect whether they're ready to go immediately when the season starts. But it isn't as though the two of them will end up on the practice squad, and by all accounts, Mikel Leshoure fits in perfectly with the team.

Still, I couldn't very well write a piece about rookies and not talk about the most high-profile ones. But still, the odds of them making the roster are certain.

Chances of Making the Opening Day Roster: 100% (barring season-ending injury)

Update on Mikel Leshoure injury.

Doug Hogue

Doug Hogue will probably make the Lions' 53-man roster. But he's the highest draft pick I have any doubt about, especially with the renewed strength of the Lions linebackers.

When the Lions drafted Hogue in April, there was talk about him possibly making the starting lineup. Three free agents (Stephen Tulloch, Justin Durant, Bobby Carpenter) later, there is some doubt as to whether he might not need some time on the practice squad to develop.

Of course, there's no doubt about Hogue's need for seasoning. He has only a combined two years at the linebacker position, but is so athletically talented, he warranted a fifth-round pick.

The Lions have had great success with this type of mid-round project pick recently, with Sammie Hill developing into a key part of the defensive line rotation, and Jason Fox figuring to take on a big role this year. Neither was cut from training camp the year they were drafted, but the Lions didn't have near as much talent then as they do now, either.

Ultimately, while Hogue is unlikely to see much game action this year, he'll probably hang around on special teams or buried on the depth chart until his development or a rash of injuries force the Lions to call his number.

Hogue has entirely too much potential for the Lions to risk putting him through waivers to get him to the practice squad. He needs lots of time to grow and he needs to do it with the Lions, not a savvy team that catches him on waivers.

Chances of Making the Opening Day Roster: 90%

Johnny Culbreath

Johnny Culbreath may or may not make the Detroit Lions roster eventually, but the odds of him cracking it here in 2011 are slim.

Culbreath caught a break because many of the Lions tackles are either injured or were unable to join the team until Aug. 4, roughly a week after the start of training camp.

In that time, Culbreath got a chance to showcase what he can do with the roster particularly thin. The verdict? Like most of the Lions' recent late-round selections, he's a small-school prospect with good athleticism and lots to learn.

Though Culbreath could be a solid player in the long term, he is extremely raw, and this is the worst possible time to throw him in and give him a shot. With the Lions offensive line facing questions about its ability to protect its quarterback, the last thing the Lions should do is experiment with Culbreath vs. Julius Peppers/Clay Matthews/Jared Allen.

Like Doug Hogue, Culbreath is a very raw player with a potentially high ceiling. Unlike Hogue, Culbreath likely doesn't have enough going for him right now to crack the Opening Day roster.

The only real concern is whether he'll sneak through waivers to hit the practice squad. The Lions selected Lydon Murtha in the seventh round in 2009, but he was claimed by the Dolphins by the end of the year.

It could be a blow to the Lions if the same happens to Culbreath, but it's not so great a risk that the Lions are going to hold the door for him despite his skill level.

Chances of Making the Opening Day Roster: 35%

Demario Ballard

Any man who can physically look down at Calvin Johnson on a football field is a point of interest, regardless of what his skills may be.

So the 6'6" Demario Ballard, a UDFA from Western Oregon, was already catching some looks when he lined up at wide receiver.

Then he started catching passes. High passes, wide passes, difficult passes. He used his body to shield defenders. He turned some heads, and with a spot or two undecided on the Lions depth chart at receiver, he could make an unlikely push at making the final roster.

Ballard, aside from his height and weight, isn't an athletic monster. He's not really fast enough to be a downfield threat, nor agile enough to play over the middle. He could be deadly on fade routes, but the Lions have Johnson for that.

He might have some value as a possession guy, since it seems like a third CB or linebacker would have a hard time keeping him from high-pointing a 1st-down pass. But with Derrick Williams having a resurgent camp performance, and three roster spots already decided, is there room for Ballard?

Last season the Lions took only four receivers into the season. That came back to bite them when they had injuries, and there is more talent at the position this year, so they might consider five this season. The difference between four and five WRs (as well as the question of where Stefan Logan's roster spot will fall) might mean the difference between Ballard being one of 53 or another practice squad body.

Chances of Making the Opening Day Roster: 20%

Jeff Maddux

The name Jeff Maddux is not likely to ring a lot of bells outside of the Mt. Pleasant area.

The former CMU Chippewa might ring the bells of some defensive linemen, though.

Maddux has a shot at the Lions' 2011 roster because he plays guard—not exactly the Lions' deepest position. In addition, he is a 320-pound mauler who thrives in the power running game.

In other words, he is exactly the kind of lineman the Lions need.

Now, Maddux isn't likely to step in and blow anybody up. He plays with good power and leverage, and seems to do well with either pass or run blocking, but he went undrafted out of CMU. Let's keep things in perspective here.

That said, even I am hard-pressed to name a Lions guard outside the starting tandem of Stephen Peterman and Rob Sims. Dylan Gandy plays guard, but is listed as a center.

The Lions have starting talent at guard, and they have versatility on the offensive line that allows them to move players around if necessary. But they have zero depth as far as true guards go, and that gives Maddux a reasonably good chance of hanging around, if he shows off his physical skills. 

Of course, this is a UDFA we're talking about. The odds are still heavily against him.

Chances of Making the Opening Day Roster: 7%

Greg Niland

If Jeff Maddux has a shot to make the Lions' final roster, then Greg Niland has the same.

Neither of them is far and away more talented than the other, which stands to reason since they're both UDFAs. But they both play with lots of weight and power, and they both play guard, an area at which Detroit desperately needs depth.

The Lions are not going to care about Niland's past play, history, alma mater or statistics. They care about what he does in camp, right now. The same goes for Maddux.

Both of them are probably facing long odds to see the light of day during the regular season, although given the Lions' lack of depth at guard, they likely have a decent shot at the practice squad.

Problem is, Maddux and Niland have to battle to exceed not only expectations, but each other, all for the sake of a roster spot that might not even exist. The odds aren't good for Niland, just as they aren't good for Maddux. But they're not zero, either.

The two UDFA guards have an equal chance at the roster going in. But they will need to impress the Lions' brass in both camp and preseason. Whoever performs best gets a solid maybe.

Chances of Making the Opening Day Roster: 7%

Cobrani Mixon

Normally, I wouldn't have given Cobrani Mixon much attention.

Admittedly, he was projected to be a late-round draft pick, and fell off the board entirely. So there is at least some perceived potential there. But the Lions have rapidly gone from depleted to stacked at linebacker, and where does Mixon fit into that logjam?

According to Saturday's practice, he fits on the second string alongside Bobby Carpenter and Ashlee Palmer.

Now, it's not unusual that the coach messes around with depth chart configurations in camp. Most likely he's just getting a look at how Mixon would respond to the level of play elevating around him.

Still, at this point, any vote of confidence is worth discussing. Mixon is a player with potential, and if he got a little bump up the charts, regardless of the reason, it's worth getting his name down. He's almost definitely the odd man out in a suddenly very deep linebacker corps, but being wrong about that sort of thing is the whole point to training camp.

After all, did anybody see Aaron Berry coming out of nowhere last year? Maybe Mixon's case will be like that. Perhaps without the Week 1 injury, though.

Chances of Making the Opening Day Roster: 5%