2011 Fantasy Football: Michael Vick and the 10 Most Overrated Early-Round Picks

Heading into a fantasy football draft, many people will focus on late-round sleepers. More importantly, however, is avoiding the early-round busts.

Just ask people who drafted Shonn Greene or Randy Moss last season if they won their league. 

Every season, you know it's going to happen. First, second, third and fourth-round picks are going to disappoint you. The hard part is picking them out in August. 

Especially with the lockout this year, many guys will probably be rusty, and the chance of disappointments will increase.

Whether it be injury-risk, increasing-age or lack of overall talent, here's 10 guys who are being drafted earlier than necessary. 

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is currently ranked as the 22nd best running back, going off of draft boards at the end of the fourth round.

If I made that pick, I would hate it. 

Making a pick that high and relying on the New England Patriots' backfield for fantasy purposes is just crazy. BJGE was fortunate enough to see a bunch of running backs around him fall to injury last season, and he capitalized.

This year, however, BJGE, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, Kevin Faullk and Sammy Morris will all be in the mix in the Patriots backfield.

While "the Law Firm" might lead the team in touchdowns again, it is highly unlikely he gets anywhere near 229 carries again. 

Brandon Lloyd

With 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns, Brandon Lloyd led the NFL in fantasy points among wide receivers last season.

Still though, am I ready to trust Brandon Lloyd as my No. 1 or 2 receiver and a fourth-round pick?

Probably not.

Lloyd put together a breakout performance in his eighth professional season, and you can't help think it was a bit of a fluke.

Throw in the facts that Josh McDaniels is out as head coach and Tim Tebow will likely be starting, and it will be hard to trust Brandon Lloyd for anything above 1,000 yards. 

Marques Colston

Marques Colston is talented. There is no doubt about that. But he is just in the wrong situation to completely utilize his skills.

Drew Brees loves to spread the ball around, and while Colston has established himself as the favorite target, it's just too hard to rely on him week in and week out as your No. 2 receiver.  

Colston is also coming off microfracture surgery to repair cartilage in his right knee, which is his third such surgery in the last calendar year.

I'm staying away. 

Steven Jackson

Steven Jackson saw his yards per carry drop to 3.8 in 2010, the lowest output of his career. I expect the regression to continue.

Jackson has amassed a hefty 1,878 carries over his career, and even though he has remained relatively healthy, he appears to be on a downward slope.

As a mid second-round pick, Jackson's ceiling is extremely low. You'll most likely be paying for someone who gets you about 60 yards per game with a touchdown every three games.

He's pretty much alone in the backfield, and St. Louis' offense is improving, but Jackson is too risky and has very low upside. 

DeAngelo Williams

DeAngelo Williams is currently rated as the fifteenth best running back, most likely making him your No. 2 at the position. But is he really that good? 

Williams will be back in a platoon with fellow running back Jonathan Stewart. Strike one.

He is coming off a season in which he missed 10 games due to a right foot injury. Strike two.

Before the injury, he was averaging just 4.1 yards per carry. That's about a yard below his career average, and won't be good enough if he's splitting carries. Strike three.

With either Cam Newton or Jimmy Clausen at QB, defense will likely be stacking the box. Strike four.

Yeah, four strikes. Not good for a mid third-round pick. 

Michael Turner

Lots of people look at the fact that Michael Turner is 29, and expect a regression. That thinking might be slightly off, however, since Turner was used sparingly during his first four seasons with the San Diego Chargers.

With that being said, I'm still not a fan of drafting Turner early in the second round (ranked 15th by ESPN).

As far as workload is concerned, Turner's 2010 (334 carries) was very similar to 2008 when he received the ball 376 times. As we all remember, he came back in 2009 as a first-round pick, and disappointed by playing in just 11 games and rushing for under 1,000 yards.

Turner also ended last season on a poor note, as he rushed for under four yards per carry in his last six games.

The "Burner" doesn't quite have the same home run threat as guys being drafted around him, and for me, there's just too much risk without enough reward to justify taking him so early.

Mike Wallace

Mike Wallace is just 24 years old, had a breakout sophomore campaign and might just be the fastest guy on the field every time he suits up.

But he is ranked somewhere around a late second-round pick as a No. 1 receiver. 

Wallace is mostly a deep threat, and while he went a large way to establishing himself as a more complete receiver last season, I don't know if I'm ready to trust him as my No. 1 receiver.

He is a top of the line No. 2 in my book. 

Even in his breakout season, Wallace collected just 60 catches. With Hines Ward on the decline, secondaries should focus more on Wallace, and I find it hard to believe he will keep up his average of 20 yards per catch.

I love Wallace's skills, just not in the second round. 

Michael Vick

Dual-threat quarterback Michael Vick is someone everyone likes to own in fantasy, but 10th overall is a little rich for my blood.

Vick was absolutely brilliant last season, throwing for 3,018 yards and rushing for another 676. Still, Philadelphia gave up the 29th most sacks, and that number grew considerably near the end of the year as teams started blitzing Vick more.

Even as defenses started figuring him out, Vick continued his success, but he's 31 and the injury risk is there as he continues to take so many hits.

My belief is that you tend to lose your league in the first round rather than win it. Vick is a high risk, high-reward type of pick, but in the opening round, I like to play it safe, and he is anything but that.  

Aaron Rodgers

You all know what Aaron Rodgers did last season, and there is absolutely no arguing how amazing he was.

As well as earning MVP honors at the Super Bowl, Rodgers was likely the fantasy MVP in most leagues. 

I'm not even saying that I expect a regression for Rodgers, but I still have concerns about drafting him in the Top 7. 

The quarterback position is pretty stacked this year. Philip Rivers threw for 4,700 yards and 30 touchdowns last season, but is still only ranked sixth. You can even get breakout candidate Josh Freeman somewhere around the sixth round.

Call me old fashioned, but I'm much more willing to take a sure-thing running back in the first round and grab a QB in the later rounds.

If I had to pick, I think I would take a Josh Freeman/Ray Rice (QB No. 10 and RB No. 6) combo over an Aaron Rodgers/Mark Ingram (QB No. 1 and RB No. 27) combo.

This isn't a knock on Rodgers. It just speaks to the QB depth. 

Maurice Jones-Drew

Last season, Maurice Jones-Drew received 333 touches in just 14 games. He missed two games at the end of the season after aggravating a meniscus tear, but he also fought through ankle and abdominal injuries all year.

MJD was a huge disappointment to start the year, and if it weren't for catching fire in November and early December, he wouldn't be anywhere near first-round discussions in 2011.

He's only 26, but he's received a lot of touches for such a small body in the last two seasons, and it's looking like the continued punishment is starting to take a toll.

Add in the fact that defenses will likely key in on him, and Jones-Drew is too much of a risk for the fifth overall pick.