Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder: Who Should Be the Hottest Free Agent in 2012?

Albert Pujols' first 11 years in the majors are almost without equal. In fact, his numbers across the board are so compelling the only question is whether anyone else is in the conversation. So why is it that some people are suggesting Prince Fielder might be the best free agent next season?

First, let's establish just how good Pujols has been through those 11 years. With nearly half a season still ahead of him, he has hit more home runs than anyone with 430 (Eddie Mathews is 31 back with 399).

He is second in runs scored and needs only 28 more to catch Ted Simmons, so he should be the leader there as well. He is third behind only Joe DiMaggio and Al Simmons in RBI. He is fourth-best in OPS.

In short, by virtually every measure of a hitter, he is among the greatest to ever play through the first 11 years, without debate.

There are only two or three players whose names are also consistently near the top of every category—names like Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams. They did it for the most part against a segregated league that also consisted of virtually only American-born players.

The age in which Pujols plays is far more competitive than it was during the days of the likes of DiMaggio, Ruth and Williams, yet his numbers are as good as or better than any of them through 11 years. He is quite possibly the best hitter in the history of the game.

Add to that fact that he's won the Fielding Bible Award four times at a position he switched to during his major league career. There is a misconception that he was moved from third because he wasn't a good fielder. The real reason is that the Cardinals needed to make room for Scott Rolen once they acquired him.

Pujols is also second all-time in Zone Runs, a measure of how many runs a player has prevented by his glove. He trails only Keith Hernandez and could surpass him before his career is over. Pujols has the major league single-season record for a first baseman with 25 Zone Runs in a single season. He's also tied for the second-best with 18.

When you put together his hitting and his fielding, you are talking about a player that is not only in the conversation with a tiny group of players for the greatest hitter of all time, he is also arguably the best defensive first baseman in major league history as well.

So why exactly would anyone consider Prince Fielder a better option in free agency than Albert Pujols? They argue that Fielder is on the way up and Pujols is on the way down. While Pujols may have had a better career so far, Fielder's will be better over the duration of a long contract.

They point to this year as evidence. A cursory look at the stats would seem to suggest that Fielder is not only on his way to passing up Pujols, but that he has already done so. 

Player	R	RBI	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Prince Fielder	56	73	22	.287	.405	.540	.945
Albert Pujols	61	60	22	.278	.347	.513	.861

Certainly, this year on the whole, Fielder has put up better numbers than Pujols. However, there are a couple of things to remember. First, Pujols had a horrible start, and second, Pujols missed a couple of weeks with a broken wrist. The first affects the rate stats and the second his totals.

Now, I suppose one could simplistically argue, well, that's the total numbers, but if you're projecting what a player is going to do for the next five or six years, you want to avoid outliers that skew the numbers, not overemphasize them. To do so would be foolish, particularly when a marginal distinction in one season is blurring a much broader one over a decade.

Statistically, we know there is such a thing as regression to the mean. When a player starts off hitting .430 through the first couple of weeks of the season, we know that eventually that number is going to go down. We don't start assuming that he's going to hit that way all year. 

With Pujols you have to take into account the same sort of logic. His April was the worst month of his entire career. That extended into the first three weeks of May, but since then he's gotten things going, and he's back to being the Pujols we saw the first 10 years.

While Pujols started to get his timing back in May and his average began to climb, his power still suffered. On May 23rd, he ended the longest home run drought of his career, and since then, he's returned to the type of form we are used to seeing from him.

Fielder had an April that was, quite simply, torrid. However, over the last 40 games he's returned to earth like a meteor crash. Here's a comparison of what Pujols and Fielder have done over the last 40 games.

Player	R	RBI	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Prince Fielder	20	18	5	.262	.406	.423	.829
Albert Pujols	34	35	15	.288	.358	.625	.983

So yes, Fielder had a better start to the season and a significant enough one that he has the edge in terms of overall numbers. Truth be told, that's a tenuous edge, particularly when you consider the present trajectory of both players' seasons.

This is not "cherry-picking" numbers either. Both players' numbers over the last 40 games are more in line with their career totals (though Fielder's power numbers are considerably lower). Fielder is without a doubt suffering from "post-derby syndrome," and that's affecting him to a degree.

There is a distinct possibility that while Fielder "is having" a better season, by season's end Pujols will have had a better one.

Still, while it's harder to make the case that Fielder has surpassed Pujols already, that doesn't mean he won't in the future. With Pujols having four years on Fielder, it's likely that at some point it's going to happen. It's more a matter of "when" than "whether" to some.

Or is it that simple? To both of their credit, they both are consistently on the field. Since his first full season in 2006, Fielder has played in 939 games, missing only 13. Considering the "shape" he is in is more accurately described as "round" than "in," it's a pretty impressive consistency.

In his 11 years in the majors, Pujols has only made two trips to the disabled list and on both occasions returned remarkably early. In his 10 full seasons, he's averaged 156 games per year.

The question is which will catch who first. Will conditioning (or the lack of it) catch Fielder first, or will age catch Pujols first? We've seen many players push their careers and play at a high level into their mid to late 30s, particularly those who took care of themselves.

On the other hand, it's hard to think of players who had a long, sustained career while pushing the scales north of 275 pounds. There were some players that played at that weight, such as Mo Vaughn, but they didn't have long careers. At what point does Fielder's weight become an issue?

Would you rather have a well-conditioned 34-year-old trying to stretch out a double or a 300-pound (let's not assume he's not going to add any weight as he gets older) 30-year-old?

Pujols is presently a better player and could be a better player for at least the next five years, but that's not all. What about the intangibles?

Don't think for a moment that the reason the Cardinals are contending with the Brewers for first in the division has nothing to do with Pujols' leadership. It has everything to do with it. The three beasts in their lineup—Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman—have all been injured for spells.

Yet the Cardinals are still tied for first because of what their youngsters are doing. Players like John Jay (.311/.364/.442) and Daniel Descalso (223 OPS+ with two out and runners in scoring position, 183 late and close) are really picking up the club.

Why? Because they come up and see the hardest-working man on the team is Albert Pujols. Tony La Russa, Mark McGwire (the hitting coach) and virtually every player on the team (including Holliday and Berkman) have credited Pujols' work ethic as inspiring the other players (including the All-Stars) to aspire to the same level.

Are you going to get that with Fielder?

Pujols has three MVPs and has played in two World Series, winning one. His postseason OPS is 1.009. No player in MLB history with more than 200 plate appearances has a higher one.

Prince Fielder has one postseason hit in his entire career. It was a homer, though.

How about in the clutch? In their careers, Fielder's clutch stats aren't wanting. His OPS with RISP is .849. With two out and RISP, it's .857. Late and close, it's an outright impressive 1.018.

However, Pujols' are even better. With RISP, his OPS is 1.149. With two out and RISP, it's 1.161. Late and close, it's 1.041.

Pujols has 10 walk-off home runs—just two away from the major league record. Fielder has four. Again, it's a nice number—just not as nice.

That's the sum of all of this. Fielder is a nice player, a very good player, even an All-Star player. It's possible that when he retires, he might be considered a great player. Possible, but not a guarantee.

Pujols, on the other hand, is a great player, and when he retires, he could be considered the greatest player, or at least the greatest first baseman, of all time. Top-10 player ever is clearly within his reach, if he's not already there.

Could Fielder do better than Pujols over the next six years? Possibly, but it's a long way from a guarantee, and even if he does marginally better, it's doubtful that it would be enough to compensate for the advantages that Pujols offers as a superior fielder (no pun intended) and leader.

Albert Pujols is the best player in the game right now, and as such, he is the best free agent available next year.