MLB Trade Speculation: Should These Teams Buy or Sell at the Trade Deadline?

The Major League Baseball trade deadline looms at the end of this month, and some teams, based on records and playoff chances, must ascertain whether to make themselves buyers or sellers in the lead up to July 31.

This is an all-or-nothing proposition; teams cannot be buyers and sellers. General managers are charged with the responsibility of assessing their teams at the current moment and peering into the future about the team's chances of a playoff berth. 

By the two-thirds mark of the season, most teams have a pretty good idea of what they are and whether or not they've got what it takes to challenge for the playoffs. However, it's not so cut and dry for many teams that hover somewhere between also-ran and division champion. Front office personnel are routinely fired in part because of failed trade deadline decisions, while others build their reputation on successful ones.  

The 2011 first half was marked by parity in the standings, with only two teams exceeding a .600 winning percentage and only two currently below .425. The majority of teams are unexceptional, but not dismal.

In a year where 16 of 30 teams lie within 4.5 games of the lead in their respective divisions in early July, sorting through the pretenders and contenders can be hard to do.

Let's sort of out the fraudulent from the real with 10 of baseball's present most unknown commodities and evaluate why they should be buying or selling at this year's deadline. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Buyer or Seller? Seller

The D-Backs, at 48-41 and two out in the NL West, have received some nice numbers from unexpected places this season. Of particular noteworthiness are Ryan Roberts' 10 HR and 33 RBI, Kelly Johnson's 15 HR and Josh Collmenter's 3.14 ERA in 71 innings. 

Arizona looked poised to enter their comfy chair in the NL West basement again, slogging to a 15-23 start through six weeks. Then, on May 13, they got hot and took 13 of their next 14. Since that day, the Diamondbacks are a robust 33-18 with the surprising sixth-best scoring offense in all of baseball.

If Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson can continue to anchor the pitching staff with good-not-great start numbers, the D-Backs could continue to pressure the Giants for the division throughout the summer.

Why are they a pretender?

Lack of depth, both pitching and hitting. This is a team that has given at least 127 at bats to Melvin Mora, Willie Bloomquist, Geraldo Parra, Xavier Nady and Juan Miranda and at least six starts to Barry Enright, Armando Galarraga, Zach Duke and Josh Collmenter. Those are not playoff-caliber baseball players, as far as we know.

My guess is that Arizona's workhorses simply crumble under the pressure of carrying an offense and pitching staff.

Then again, help from unexpected places is always around the corner on a team dotted with nobodies. 

Chicago White Sox

Buyer or Seller? Buyer

If you were to look up the word "average" in Bud Selig's Exhaustive Baseball Dictionary, you'd only find one picture. That picture would be the White Sox 2011 team composite.

That dictionary doesn't exist, of course, but the White Sox' performance on the field and in the standings and team statistics fleshes out their mediocrity at the plate and on the mound. They are currently 43-46 and trail Cleveland by 5.5 in the AL Central.

So why are the White Sox buyers?

The team has gone unaided by some of its most important pieces, like prized free agent signing Adam Dunn, Gordon Beckham, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, John Danks and Gavin Floyd. The disappointing production from that horde of players is the biggest factor in Chicago's 18th-best scoring outfit and 17th-best team batting average, as well as its 12th-ranked ERA and 14th-best batting average against.

If Dunn picks up his breathtakingly bad .163 batting average and eight home runs, the Sox offense will look a lot scarier in the middle through the dog days of August. If Peavy returns from injury effectively and Danks hurls like he did before his recent DL stint, the rotation will suddenly be the best in the Central with Mark Buehrle, Floyd, the sensational Phil Humber, Peavy and Danks.

Why are they a contender? 

The White Sox are alive and kicking in a weak division in spite of some dreadful first half production from Dunn, Rios and Danks, to name a few. If the Sox were able to stay afloat without their production, they should quickly straighten out and pull away from the pack in the Central with it.  

Pittsburgh Pirates

Buyer or Seller? Seller

It's very easy to get caught up in the feel-good Pittsburgh Pirates, victims of 19 consecutive losing seasons and a horrendous 57-105 in 2010. The band of young players, led by centerpiece Andrew McCutchen, has transformed the team from a competitive joke to a team capable of punishing opponents for making mistakes.

Indeed, the 45-42 Pirates are an exciting outfit, and the fact that they've stayed in the NL Central race thus far is a testament to some tangible franchise progress after such a long run of ineptitude. 

It's important to not get carried away by potential and possibilities and feel-good stories, however. The Royals, Rays, Astros and others have put together strong first halves in their recent periods of bad baseball, and the fact that the Pirates did that this year should be tempered by another fact: The baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. The cream rises to the top more often than not, while the silt settles at the bottom.

Until we see a playoff berth or late-season contention, the Pirates are silt, not cream. 

Why are they a pretender?

The Pirates own the eighth-best mark in team ERA and are ninth in quality starts with 50. Those are impressive numbers, but the names that have combined to accomplish those feats lead me to believe that it's mostly a smoke-and-mirrors operation. Paul Maholm, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia and Charlie Morton deserve credit for the work they've done so far and the continuity they've provided to the starting rotation, but I can't imagine them possibly being better than they have been to this point. 

Not one of those pitchers would even be a No. 3 starter in baseball's top five rotations, yet they're all working with 3.74 ERA or better and at least nine quality starts. 

I expect this group to decidedly slip in terms of efficiency and run-stopping over the course of the second half. Consequently, the Pirates will fade from the playoff race, but not without serious hope and promise for 2012.

Tampa Bay Rays

Buyer or Seller? Buyer

Admittedly, the Tampa Bay Rays have a very steep uphill climb to reach the playoffs when competing with two of baseball's three best teams, the Yankees and Red Sox. 

However, they sit just four games out of the AL East lead with a 49-39 record that seemed implausible after the season's first two weeks, which saw the Rays stumble to a 1-8 start. Since then (and without star 3B Evan Longoria for a month), Joe Maddon's crew has gone 48-31 behind strong starting pitching. 

Top pitching prospect Jeremy Hellickson has adapted quickly and looks like another David Price, while Price himself has been among the AL's best starters. The anchor of the staff, though, has been the revitalized James Shields, who looks even more dominant than the 2008 version of himself that won 14 games and had a 3.56 ERA. He has returned from two consecutive dismal seasons and reinvented himself as a strikeout artist who misses bats and eats up innings.

The framework for a formidable postseason rotation is well in place, which places the onus for success on the lineup. Tampa's top three starters all sport ERAs of 3.56 or better and at least 10 quality starts. However, they've all barely managed a .500 record with eight wins each. Among qualified starters, Hellickson is 30th in run support average, Price is 84th and Shields is 104th. These guys have all been great, but they've earned every number they own without much help from the offense.

Why are they a contender?

The strength of the pitching staff, both starters and relievers. In a match of poor offense and good pitching, the Rays' pitching has prevailed, which is why the team sits in a good spot right now. With Longoria back and swinging like he means it, the surprise offensive famine will soon be a memory of the past.

New York Mets

Buyer or Seller? Buyer

The New York Mets have a ton of holes and problems and bloated contracts and underperformers, but it would be foolish to count them out until they're mathematically eliminated for one reason.

They have Jose Reyes.

Reyes has been saddled with injuries for the last two seasons, which seriously hampered his hitting and running abilities. Injury-free for the first time in a while, Reyes has been absolutely electric this season, posting a blistering .354 average with 15 triples, 32 RBI and 30 steals while only striking out 26 times. He is the biggest reason why the Mets, normally an anemic hitting bunch, rank in the top nine in runs, batting average and on-base percentage. 

As usual, the pitching is a grease fire. When your unquestioned best starters are Chris Capuano, Jonathan Niese and Dillon Gee, you're probably playing a lot of catch-up on offense after allowing runs by the bunch. 

Still, if not for the NL best Phillies leading the East, the 45-43 Mets would be right in position to grab the division. As it is, they have a puncher's chance at the Wild Card, and with Reyes' rare ability to control a baseball game with his bat and legs, the Mets could get hot, as they've been since June 1 with a 20-13 record.

Why are they a contender?

Jose Reyes. I think I've mentioned him before.

The Mets could put up on some firework shows in the second half if sluggers Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay return to All-Star form. With the eventual return of star 3B David Wright from a stress fracture in his back, the Mets will warrant a compelling clash of strengths with the pitching staffs of Atlanta and Philadelphia. With plenty of matchups remaining against both division rivals, the Mets at least have the opportunity to make up the 10 games they currently trail Philly by.

Cleveland Indians

Buyer or Seller? Buyer

As a division leader on July 6, how can they not be?

The Cleveland Indians have found success riding on a bevy of outstanding contributions from youngsters OF Michael Brantley, C Carlos Santana and SPs Justin Masterson, Carlos Carrasco and Josh Tomlin. 

The most valuable of Indians, though, has been SS Asdrubal Cabrera, who has done it all at the plate and in the field. His 14 HR, 49 RBI, 22 doubles, 12 steals and .292 batting average lead all Indians in those categories and are the primary cause of Cleveland's success in the standings. His highlight reel plays at short frequently top all defensive excellencies on any given night, and his leadership has a young team playing with confidence and feeling like they belong with the veteran White Sox and Tigers.

Statistically average across the board in pitching and hitting, the Indians are getting just enough done to pace the field in the AL Central. They'll have to pick up that pace, though, to sustain the inevitable hot streaks from Detroit and Chicago. 

Why are they a contender?

For weeks, the Indians were atop the entire American League. They were playing confidently, and nothing could seem to go wrong.

That's not the point at which you find out what your team is made of, however.

When the wheels came off in late May, the Indians lost 14 out of 19 games. They came down from their place in the clouds and crashed back to the harsh reality that they had played out of their minds for the first two months. Now they had to adjust and respond to their struggles, which they did adequately. They've played 13-10 since that time and maintain a 1.5-game lead.

The growth that a young team experiences from responding to a slump goes a long way as they figure out what it takes to win. So far, the Indians have done that well, and as long as Masterson and Carrasco continue to lead the staff, the team will keep itself in a lot of close games.

Cincinnati Reds

Buyer or Seller? Seller

The Cincinnati Reds boast a strong middle with Drew Stubbs, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Jonny Gomes. They can hit the long ball and score in bunches with the best offenses in baseball.

However, the starting rotation leaves more than a little to be desired.

Three regular starters, Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez and Travis Wood all have unsightly ERAs above five, while Mike Leake's hovers right at four. Only Jonny Cueto has performed better than league average, and he's made only 11 starts, the fewest of that quintet. The pitching staff ranks in the bottom third in ERA and WHIP while curiously resting in the top 10 in quality starts and batting average against. 

So how do the starters rank among the worst in giving up runs, but near the best in quality starts? The answer lies in the amount of run support they receive. The Reds have four of the top 65 best supported starting pitchers, which allows Dusty Baker to let his starter go that extra inning or two instead of dipping into his bullpen early. Sometimes, what looked to be a start teetering on disaster turns into a well-controlled game by a starter that extends through six innings.

Why are they a pretender?

The pitching staff. Listen to the names: Edinson Volquez, Jonny Cueto, Travis Wood, Mike Leake and Bronson Arroyo. Not even a No. 2-caliber starter among them. No team can survive a pennant race with no-name pitchers, much less no-namers who have ERAs above five.

It doesn't matter how good Joey Votto and the Reds' offense is down the stretch; no team can win a division, especially one with the Cardinals and Brewers, without a viable pitching staff. Short of a 2010 Travis Wood-esque pitching performance from a newcomer, the Reds pitchers are what they are. A repeat of last year's NL Central crown is unlikely.

Seattle Mariners

Buyer or Seller? Buyer

The American League West is eminently winnable. The Seattle Mariners are just 4.5 games behind Texas for the division lead, though they are one game under .500 at 43-45. 

The team is a case study in extremes: The pitching staff has been sensational, while the offense is the worst in baseball. The staff is fourth in ERA, second in quality starts, first in WHIP and second in batting average against. 

The offense, on the other hand, ranks dead last across the board in runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging. Not one regular hits better than Ichiro's .274, and only two players have more than six homers.

Whatever effectiveness the pitching staff of Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Erik Bedard and rookie phenom Michael Pineda has offered, the offense has nullified quickly.

With the Rangers and Angels due for some summer heating, the Mariners must find a way to score runs to supplement the excellent pitching.

Why are they a contender?

One, because they are very much alive in the division race. The competition level is low in the AL West, but somebody has to represent it in the playoffs.

Two, the pitching staff is great. More often than not, good pitching beats good hitting, which has rang true for the Ms thus far.

They should be looking for a big bat in the trade market to somehow make the lineup better. It wouldn't take a whole lot to improve the hitting on this team, and the Mariners can't make the playoffs without getting better at the plate. 

Colorado Rockies

Buyer or Seller? Seller

The Colorado Rockies have put together some staggering late-season streaks. In 2007's Cinderella run to the World Series, the Rockies needed 14 wins in 15 games to make the playoffs, then they won their first seven games in the postseason before falling to Boston in the World Series.

In 2009, the Rockies used the season's last month to collect 19 wins in 30 games to snatch the Wild Card.

Overall, the Rockies are a team of strong late-season repute, and for good reason.

This year, however, the odds are against this team repeating their odd-year playoff rally. The Rockies stand 8.5 games out of the NL West driver's seat with a record of 41-47. 

It's reasonable to conclude that Colorado's best days in 2011 are behind them as well. Troy Tulowitzki, who has had a scorching first half with 17 HR and 57 RBI, is currently hampered by a strained quad muscle that has his status no better than day-to-day. If he misses extended time, the Rockies are done.

To make matters worse, budding ace Jorge De La Rosa was lost for the season after just 10 starts with an elbow injury, which will require the pitcher's death sentence, Tommy John Surgery. Without him, the rotation is so thin that manager Jim Tracy is forced to rely on Aaron Cook and Juan Nicasio for routine turns in the rotation. 

Why are they a pretender? 

Short of the juggernaut Rockies' offense of a few years ago, this team doesn't have enough firepower to offset its uninspiring pitching. This team needs at least one more starter to even approach the pace that the starters in San Francisco and San Diego have set. 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Buyer or Seller? Buyer

The Angels have possibly already done their buying in the form of the offseason trade for all-or-nothing slugger Vernon Wells. The Angels were after one more outfielder capable of lighting up the scoreboard with one swing.

Wells struggled immensely through two months, then got hurt, and has returned with a barrage of home runs. He got hot in mid-June, and the Angels followed suit with timely hitting and great starting pitching. 

Among one of the worst offensive teams in the league, the Angels are focused on staying in low-scoring games, getting clutch hits, then closing games with solid relief. The bullpen has been mostly effective in holding leads, though they rank better than just two teams in blown saves, with 17 already. A young group with a rookie closer means that Mike Scioscia always has his bottle of Rolaids within reach.

The Angel offense is inconsistent and lacks a catalyst at the top. A trade for a legitimate leadoff hitter or a power hitting third baseman could stabilize the lineup and give it a concrete identity. As it is, the Angels seem confused as to whether they should be a small ball running team, or a collection of heavy hitters.

Why are they a contender?

The starting rotation has been among the best in baseball, and its two aces, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, are pitching as well as any one-two combo in baseball. The team's calling card has always been strong starting pitching, so as long as the rotation keeps the team in games and the bullpen learns on the job, the Angels could take control of the AL West forcefully.