Cam Newton vs. Terrelle Pryor: Who's the Better Value in the NFL?

The purpose of this article is about relative value between Terrelle Pryor and Cam Newton, not who will be a better QB in the NFL.  

Most everyone agrees that Newton has a better talent base than Pryor.  While I'm not completely convinced his talent is that much better suited for NFL success, that won't be the final argument in this review.

Instead, this article is going to look at what the Carolina Panthers could have had by passing on Newton and getting Pryor by offering their third-round pick in 2012.  While the projected value for acquiring Pryor ranges from the second to the fifth round, surrendering their third-round pick would likely suffice for drafting Pryor.

Cost to Acquire Each Player

Newton was the top overall pick in 2011.  Most NFL analysts see this as a reflection on the lack of quality in the 2011 draft as opposed to a statement on Newton's value.

The cost for Pryor is still unknown.  He isn't projected to cost a team more than a third- or fourth-round pick.  

This is a significant variance for two QBs that have a lot of similarities, particularly the potential to not be a good fit in the NFL.

Ohio State's Balanced Offense vs. Spread Offense

There is little dispute that Ohio State's offense was more similar to what will be seen in the NFL than Auburn's 2010 scheme.  Pryor was in charge of a balanced offense, featuring the run and taking passing opportunities as they come.

The Ohio State offense also failed to exploit some of Pryor's talent.  While he has the ability to take control of a game with his legs, the offense didn't feature that part of the game.

In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, Pryor was asked about the attention paid to Newton and other spread offense quarterback.

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"I'll put it like this: You put me in any of their offenses—any of them—and I'd dominate.  I'd dominate the nation. What those guys do, that's what they're supposed to do in their offense.

"They carry the ball 30 times a game. I carry the ball maybe five times. There are times I didn't even run the ball in a game. You put me in any of their offenses, where I can run the ball and have a choice to throw, I would dominate college football."

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While perhaps a bit bold, there is some truth to his words.  Ohio State fit Pryor into their system, and he still produced at a high level.

Auburn tailored the offense to Newton and he succeeded on athleticism.  That won't be enough in the NFL.

Value in 2011 Draft: Whom Could the Panthers Have Drafted?

By selecting Newton, Carolina passed on some significant talent.  Von Miller, Marcel Dareus, A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson were all options with the first pick.  

Pryor will cost a team a mid-round draft pick.  In 2011, that would have been players with a lot of potential, like Ryan Mallett with bust concerns, or Dontay Moch that needs to make a bit of a transition in the NFL.

There were also established players with solid NFL projections, like Austin Pettis and Leonard Hankerson at WR and Mason Foster (LB, Washington).

Pryor fits very well in this group, as he has the potential to be an NFL star but could also end up playing in the UFL or needing to convert to a WR.

Value in 2011 Draft: What Could the Panthers Have Received in Trade Value?

While draft value charts can be helpful in determining what can be acquired in a trade, they aren't the final say.  It still comes down to what a team in willing to surrender to get into position to draft the player they covet.

The 2011 draft does give one solid point of comparison, though.  The Atlanta Falcons made a draft day trade to move into position to make Julio Jones the second WR selected.

In return for jumping to the sixth slot in the draft, they surrendered their 2011 and 2012 first-round picks, their 2011 second-round selection and their 2012 fourth round selection.  It is fair to assume the Falcons would have surrendered their third-round pick in 2012 instead of their fourth-round pick to move into the first position.

The Panthers could have had a package of draft picks that would have help with their rebuilding efforts. That could have meant getting an OT in the first round and a solid WR prospect like Greg Little or Randall Cobb in the second round to replace Steve Smith.  

They would still have a first-round pick in 2012 along with a third-round choice they could have surrendered to draft Pryor.  Given the concerns on Newton making the transition to the NFL, trading out of the top pick seems like it would have best-helped the Panthers.

Bottom Line: Pryor Is a Better Value for an NFL Team

The bottom line is Newton projects as the better NFL prospect, but the cost to acquire him was just too much. The Panthers, in particular, have too many needs at this point to take another early gamble on a QB.

Carolina has a young project QB in place and had another young QB with some positive game experience in Matt Moore.  Newton has the potential to be a flashy performer, but he also has the risk of flushing out of the NFL...particularly in Carolina where he won't have the kind of talent around him to help him succeed.  

Their top WR is aging and disgruntled, and they could very well lose their best RB to free agency.

The cost for him was simply too much, and a team that needs to rebuild to the magnitude of Carolina would have been better served trading out of the top spot.

While it does rely on hindsight, trading out of the top spot could have netted the Panthers three top prospects and Terrelle Pryor.  Is Newton really worth that much more to an organization?