Are the NHL Elite Expendable: A Case Against Keeping Jeff Carter

Despite the fact that the Stanley Cup playoffs have only been put to rest for two days, much of the talk in Philadelphia hockey forums has concerned not the performance of the Canucks and Bruins, but the acquisition of Ilya Bryzgalov and what it means for Flyers’ center/winger Jeff Carter. 

As Flyers fans well know, Carter signed an 11-year contract extension that takes effect on July 1, when NHL free agency officially begins.  Carter’s extension includes a no-trade clause so, for all intents and purposes, the events in the NHL trade market in the next two weeks will determine whether or not Carter is a Flyer for life. 

Trade Rumors

Rumors are buzzing that Carter is on the trading block, which raises the question: Why would the Flyers want to get rid of one of their biggest producers on offense?

In the last three years, Carter’s worst season ended with 33 goals, 61 points and 74 games played.  In 2008-09, Carter finished second only to Alex Ovechkin with 46 goals. 

Carter’s playoff statistics have not been as stellar as his regular season numbers, but he did contribute seven points in 12 games during the Flyers’ miraculous run to the finals in 2009-10, missing 11 games due to injury. 

Before Danny Briere’s breakout last season, Carter was essentially the lone bona-fide scorer on a solid but streaky Flyers offense that consisted of nine good forwards with no true superstar.  Even last season, with much of the focus on Briere, Carter quietly led the team in goals with 36, and scored a team-high seven game-winners.

How can your leading scorer be expendable?

The Flyers Must Prioritize

The recent acquisition of Bryzgalov’s negotiating rights was a statement by the Flyers: goaltending is the priority.

For more than a decade (and fast approaching two decades), the Flyers’ goaltending situation has been less a point of pride and more a point of contention for Flyers fans.  It all came to a boil this past playoff year, when the Flyers pathetically cycled three goaltenders in the playoffs and made it through 60 minutes with one netminder in less than half of their games.

Perhaps this laughable display was finally the slap in the face that the Flyers’ front office needed to realize that solid offense and good defense can all be undone by bad goaltending.  The Flyers’ defensive corps is talented enough that they don’t need the goaltender to play extremely well; but no team can overcome a goaltender who plays badly. 

Thus, signing Bryzgalov is more important than signing Ville Leino—it is more important than bringing a big free agent like Brad Richards on board, and it is more important than worrying about the impact on Bobrovsky’s development.

It is also more important than holding on to the team’s best scorer.

Making Space for Bryz

The new salary cap has not yet been released, but all speculation indicates that the Flyers won’t be able to give Bryzgalov the money he wants and fill out the rest of the roster without moving someone.

In his time as general manager, Paul Holmgren has executed a number of brilliant moves (think turning Peter Forsberg into Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell, Scottie Upshall and Ryan Parent) and took 2006-07’s worst team to the Eastern Conference Finals in just a single season. 

Unfortunately, the result of Homer’s boldness is a number of good players signed to long-term deals with no-trade clauses and very limited space to play with the rest of the roster.

According to nhlnumbers.com, the Flyers have seven players signed through at least 2013 with a cap hit greater than $4 million per season (Carter, Mike Richards, Briere, Hartnell, Timonen, Chris Pronger and Andrej Meszaros).  The three defensemen in that group will be an integral part of a playoff run next season and therefore should not be moved. Richards, Briere and Hartnell all have no-trade clauses that make moving them impossible.

This leaves Carter as the odd man out.

Concerns About the Future

Do you know what they say about “too much of a good thing?”  That sums up Holmgren’s situation when it comes to inking talent long-term.  It was the reason that Gagne had to leave last season, and it is the reason keeping Carter is a dangerous move. 

The Flyers must leave themselves with room to adjust their roster in the next few years as younger faces become more and more important to the success of the team (soon-to-be superstar James van Riemsdyk being the most obvious example).

The more money Holmgren puts into building the core of a team for years to come, the more he finds himself backed into a corner when it comes to acquiring the missing pieces.

And trading Carter doesn’t just make sense in terms of cap space; he likely has the highest trade value of anyone on the team (with the possible exceptions of Claude Giroux and van Riemsdyk), meaning that the team could likely get a high draft pick, a prospect, or both in exchange for the mild-mannered center.

Those mild manners might be another reason that Carter doesn’t fit quite as well with the Flyers.  Some fans are frustrated by Carter’s lack of grit; while the center’s abilities are quite solid, he doesn’t display the same aggression and passion that Broad Street has gotten used to.  Even Giroux, on whom Carter has at least four inches and 25 pounds, shows a willingness to throw the body around and get involved in scrums. 

It can be hard to picture any player who lacks that edge lasting 11-plus seasons in Philadelphia.

Whether or not Holmgren considers Carter to be a critical piece of the championship puzzle or an expendable player in light of the big picture, remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: if on July 1, Bryzgalov moves to free agency and Carter begins his next 11 years in the City of Brotherly Love, the Flyers will find themselves on the outside of the Eastern Conference’s elite, looking in.