Detroit Lions: Why They Will Not Field a Playoff Team in 2011-2012

I told you this was coming, so don't get mad at me.

Last week, I gave the case for why the Lions could field their first playoff team in over a decade in 2011. And I told you then I would be flipping the scenario the following week, because I'm not in either camp yet.

See, it's not that the Lions are definitely going to miss the playoffs. They have a shot, and even the national media is starting to take notice.

But there is far too much uncertainty surrounding not only the team, but the entire NFL season. I would have to be crazy to project a playoff berth for a team whose roster could (and very likely will) change drastically between now and October.

Will that change be a positive one? We have no idea. It's very likely that a new CBA will cut any ties between the Lions and, say, Chris Houston or Turk McBride.

Under 2010 rules, both would have been restricted. But it doesn't look like we're going to be playing under 2010 rules.

It looks like we're going to be playing under a yet-to-be-determined set of rules. And since neither side has much objection to the concept of unrestricted free agency after four years (not six, as was the "uncapped year" rule), that provision should stay in place.

That means Houston is gone. And that, in turn, means that the No. 1 cornerback in 2011 is either Alphonso Smith, a dark horse from training camp, or a player not yet on the team.

Even in the event that the corner position works out, it's almost guaranteed to be thin. Most of the talk about the Lions making the playoffs has been made on the tenuous assumption that they would have an injury-free 2011.

The Lions play in one of the hardest-hitting divisions in football and are consequently one of the hardest-hit teams by injuries year in and year out. In a season where the NFC North could be historically tough, why would this year be any different?

I'm not even talking about an injury to Matthew Stafford, either. Let's assume he makes it through the season unscathed. But what if it's an injury to Calvin Johnson? To Louis Delmas? DeAndre Levy? Mikel Leshoure?

I'm not trying to place a jinx or anything. Really, I'm not. But teams have to deal with injuries to big-time players every year, and the Lions are one of the least equipped to handle it with quality depth.

They're much better than they have been, for sure. But with the team's current composition, an injury to Johnson means the Lions lack a third receiver again.

An injury to Levy means, what, Jordon Dizon in the middle?

An injury to Leshoure means we're back to Jahvid Best/Maurice Morris, which was only marginally effective in 2010.

Now, don't get me wrong; the Lions are not at a point where a couple of injuries will drop them back down to being 2-14 nobodies again. They have too much talent in too many areas for that.

But we're not just talking about finishing 8-8; we're talking about making the playoffs in what is very possibly the toughest division in football. The NFC North houses the Super Bowl champion and two other teams who have made the NFC Championship game in the past two seasons.

And then there's the Lions, who have to fight through all of them just to have a shot. Last year, the Tampa Bay Bucs finished 10-6 and third in their division. Had the Lions won 10 games last year, they would have done the same.

If the Lions win 10 games this year, they could do the same again, though it's tough to believe they will. We are talking about the team with the fourth-toughest schedule in football this year.

Most Lions fans would be happy if the team finished 9-7 next year, but that is almost assuredly not going to be good enough for the playoffs.

That's not to say the Lions won't battle. They absolutely will, and they'll win a couple games next year they're not supposed to (remember how sick you felt sending Drew Stanton in against the Packers?), but are we at a point where we can expect the kind of consistent winning ways required to get a team to the playoffs?

Because really, the consistency is the key. That's what it looked like the Lions were establishing in the final four games of 2010, and what they hope to continue in 2011.

But the lockout has wreaked havoc on any sort of lingering momentum from 2010 and is presumably harming the efforts of any players returning from injury as they attempt to re-acclimate to football action.

Sure, the rest will be good for them to an extent, but so would access to team doctors and medical facilities.  So would coaching and minicamps and the team's practice facility in Allen Park.

Ultimately, there is a lot that has to go right, and not much that can go wrong if the Lions are to make a return to the playoffs. The lockout is one thing that is already going wrong.

How much more can the team withstand if they are to finish with 10 wins and a playoff berth?

I've made both cases, now you make the call.