Atlanta Thrashers: Relocation's Impact on NHL Divisions, an Examination

It's a done deal. Well, the NHL has not confirmed it, but the mayors of both Atlanta and Winnipeg are signaling the defeat of the Thrashers in Atlanta, and the return of hockey to Winnipeg.

There are questions about how the NHL will realign its divisions in the wake of this move. For one year, it appears, the new team in Winnipeg will continue to play in the Southeast Division, mainly because schedule changes are too difficult to make this late and because the Phoenix Coyotes may or may not also relocate next season.

Of course, Winnipeg will not stay in the Southeast for more than one season. While the NHL has sent out feelers about entirely restructuring their conferences and divisions, it is likely that they will stick with the status quo of six divisions with five teams apiece.

First Steps — Where will Winnipeg go?

The obvious choice is for the team to join the Northwest Division, replacing either Vancouver, Colorado or Minnesota.

There is also the marginal possibility that they could simply play in the Central Division. The Central Division makes more geographical sense, but the allure of more Canadian rivalries — with Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton — will more likely put them in the Northwest.

The Bounce — Who leaves the Northwest Division?

Colorado appears to be the team most likely to be ousted from the Northwest. They are closer to the Pacific Division teams than they are to the Northwest teams, and they are also in the American Southwest, where other Pacific teams are located.

Minnesota is also an option. Like Winnipeg, Minnesota is closer to the Central teams than the Northwest teams. They would have a close rival with Winnipeg, but their game times, along with Dallas, have been some of the worst.

Finally, Vancouver has been tossed out as a possibility for realigning into the Pacific Division. They are currently the only west coast team outside of the Pacific division, and their movement would improve some game times for a team like Minnesota.

The Fix — What will the Western Conference look like?

The team in the greatest need of realignment is Dallas. They currently play in a division with three teams that are two time zones away. The Dallas Stars — not the Minnesota Wild — will move to the Central.

It is a toss-up on whether Vancouver or Colorado will then move into the Pacific. My guess is that for reasons of Canadian rivalries, the proximity of Denver and even a bit of competitive balance, the Colorado Avalanche will move to the Pacific Division.

This now leaves us with six teams in the Central Division and four teams in the Southeast Division. With the West realigned, it is time to turn East.

The Move — Who goes East?

As stated above, one of the reasons Winnipeg will compete in the Southeast Division next year is because the Phoenix Coyotes may be relocated after the 2011-12 season. If the Coyotes are relocated to an eastern city, it would be jarring to reconfigure divisions for only one season.

Detroit has long been the primary subject of talks to move to the Eastern Conference. Ever since Toronto moved East in 1998, the Red Wings have longed to get back together. There is rumour that they have a standing agreement with the NHL to be the first team to be put back into the East. However, this is only a rumour, and the Red Wings provide much needed revenue amongst the Western teams that primary rival Chicago Blackhawks can hardly duplicate, as they would remain the only Original Six team in the Western Conference.

Nashville is the team closest to the remaining four Southeast teams, but they are also in the Central Time Zone. Dallas could also be a choice, because they are far away from any division they are aligned in.

Columbus is the other Eastern Time Zone team that is currently in the Western Conference. Their nearest opponent is actually another Eastern Conference team, the Pittsburgh Penguins. Because of the close-knit nature of the Northeast and Atlantic Divisions, Columbus would most likely be placed in the Southeast Division.

Going Retro — An alternate Eastern Conference alignment

With the loss of Atlanta, the Southeast Division would be rather spread out. An alternative to keeping this division would be to split the teams amongst the other Eastern Divisions. This was the situation before the Southeast Division was invented in 1998. The Florida teams played with the New York City teams, and Carolina played with the Northeast teams.

Northeast: Boston, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Buffalo/"New Team"

Central: Carolina, Washington, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Buffalo/"New Team"

Atlantic: NY Islanders, NY Rangers, New Jersey, Florida, Tampa Bay

The current Central Division would be renamed the Midwest Division, citing NBA precedent. The "New Team" could be either Detroit or Columbus. It could also be the relocated Coyotes in Hamilton, Quebec City, Hartford or perhaps another southern city, like Norfolk.

This would also help the disparity that the Southeast teams have been suffering from not having as many teams from traditional hockey markets in their arenas. Perhaps the Thrashers performed poorly to begin with because fans would rather see the Rangers and Devils — teams from more traditional hockey markets — more often than the Panthers and Hurricanes.

But, it will be harder than pulling alligator teeth to pry a team from the Atlantic Division, like Philadelphia or Pittsburgh, to join the Southeast and replace Atlanta.

Outside the Box — More radical realignment?

The four division approach used from the '70s up to 1998 has floated around the past couple years as a possible solution for realignment. Ironically, Atlanta was suggested to move into the Western Conference in exchange for Columbus, before the Atlanta to Winnipeg move was a twinkle in the eye of Thrasher fans.

The move to six divisions was done for financial reasons, as 50 percent more teams would be "rewarded" for winning their division. A move back to four divisions was only considered as a means of alleviating the horrendous travel that the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild have had to endure over the past decade.

With Minnesota trading a far-away rival in Vancouver or Colorado for a nearby rival in Winnipeg, and with Dallas moving into their "home" division in the Central Division, the move toward four divisions no longer has legs.

The notion of having three conferences has also hit message boards as a possibility to be considered by the NHL. This would certainly be novel, and there could be merit to splitting the Western Conference into two half-conferences, but North American sports are not built to hold three equal-sized conferences.

Conclusions

There really shouldn't be any major shifts occurring. Reformatting the Eastern Conference is the furthest the NHL would go, and they are more likely to simply put a team like Columbus or Nashville, or even Detroit or Dallas, into the Southeast.

But, this is also a prime opportunity to do more than a simple Winnipeg/Columbus switch. There have been cries from Dallas to get moved back into the Central Division with their long-time rivals. Once the Phoenix issue is resolved, I expect this to be the major issue with regards to realigning the West.