NBA Free Agents 2011: 25 Bold Predictions for the Summer of 2011
The free agency period of 2011 in the NBA isn't nearly as exciting as it was in 2010, but it does have nearly as many story lines with the lockout looming.
There are a handful of veteran players on the market, with Vince Carter and Jason Richardson looking to extend their stays in the NBA, and plenty of younger guys like Aaron Afflalo out there.
Most contenders will have a hard time doing much in terms of free agency with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement yet to be signed and therefore no sign of what the salary cap will be next season, and whether it will become harder than it was this year. For example, the Lakers have over $90 million on their books for next season (Luke Walton makes $5 million of that), which doesn't bode well if the cap hardens.
A hard cap could also put a damper on the formation of super-teams, as it could force teams to go back to putting a cast of role players around a star player and a borderline All-Star, rather than signing three guys at near maximum contracts.
So with the strange summer just around the corner, I'd like to put my Nostradamus hat on and take a stab at making some free agency predictions.
Owners Have Tight Pocketbooks
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So I'll start you all off with a gimmie. The owners will be locking out players, and unable to sign players until the lockout ends, or they will have a new CBA to work under, which will almost undoubtedly have stricter salary rules.
The penny pinchers extraordinaire Maloof Brothers have shown a bit of this already (although being on the verge of bankruptcy doesn't help much), as they had to trade for Marquis Daniels, a guy with a season ending injury, just to meet the salary floor.
My guess is that owners avoid the huge contracts that have crippled them to this point and do what they can to keep costs down until they know exactly what's going on.
That's not to say there won't be some spenders out there, as the Knicks and Nets are almost certainly going to be looking to sign some guys, and other teams may look to get significantly better by signing a few mid-level guys.
Vince Carter Signs with a Weird Team
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This is extremely vague, but I'll make it make sense here for you.
Remember when Wade Boggs and Fred McGriff played for the Devil Rays, or when Jerry Rice played for the Seahawks how weird those players looked in their new uniforms. That is going to be Vince Carter this year.
I see very little chance that Carter signs with a contender, as there are questions about his drive at this point in his career, but a team looking to pick up their attendance or a borderline playoff team may look to pick him up.
He already looked strange in a Suns uniform, but could you imagine him in a Kings jersey, or a Bucks or Bobcats jersey?
Shane Battier Goes to a Contender
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The Memphis Grizzlies have Marc Gasol as a top priority this summer, and after that it should be Shane Battier.
However, Battier should have plenty of suitors around the league, as he is still one of the best defenders in the NBA which should jack up his price, especially after the job he did on Kevin Durant in the playoffs.
Battier is turning 33 later this year, and his championship attempts are running thin, so he should be looking to help a team go over the top, and Memphis may not yet be at that level.
Battier could end up with the Spurs, trying to help them make one last push, Dallas to bolster their bench defense, or even Atlanta or Orlando as they struggle to stay elite.
New Orleans Keeps David West at a Bargain
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A few short months ago, it was almost a given that David West would get overpaid and be on the first train out of New Orleans.
Then, at the end of March West tore his ACL, killing his earning power in the process and giving New Orleans one last ditch effort to re-sign Chris Paul.
Without David West, New Orleans has no viable number two man, with him they have a slight chance of retaining Paul, so they should get him for a high price, but a bargain compared to what they would have had to pay for him otherwise.
Shannon Brown to the Bulls
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The Bulls have a bit of a hole to fill in their two-guard role, and if Shannon Brown can finally live up to what people think he could be, then he may be the perfect guy.
Brown could be had for a moderate price (possibly around $3-4 million a year), and could give the Bulls a nice scoring pop from their shooting guard spot.
Plus, he is a high-flyer and up-beat player and is just 25 and could be a part of the Bulls system for years to come.
The Clippers Fill DeAndre Jordan's Bank Account
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One thing that I have heard over and over again in the past months is that the Los Angeles Clippers aren't going to let DeAndre Jordan slip away.
Jordan is a restricted free agent this summer, so he will be able to go out and talk to some teams and probably get a hefty offer from a few of them.
However, I'm confident that no matter the size of the offer the Clippers will match it to keep Jordan in their frontcourt.
Detroit Locks Up Rodney Stuckey
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If I were the GM for the Detroit Pistons (which I am not), the only player on the team that I would have the inkling to overpay to stay would be Rodney Stuckey.
Stuckey, like DeAndre Jordan will be a restricted free agent this summer, and will probably get some good offers from around the league, but Detroit would be wise to keep him.
Other than Stuckey, Detroit only has one other guy (Greg Monroe) that looks like he could and should be a part of this team three years from now.
Knicks Nab Nene
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It's no secret that the Knicks are a sub-par defensive team, and with Amar'e Stoudemire playing out of position at center at times they really need a guy better than Ronny Turiaf to lock down their five-spot.
Nene has worked well with Carmelo Anthony in the past, and is one of the best defensive centers in the league, so it makes sense that he would be the free agent center that they pursue the most.
New York has $50 million locked up in three players, so it may be hard to sign him if the cap rules come down on them, but they could likely facilitate a sign-and-trade with Denver if they really want him, which they should.
Golden State Signs Samuel Dalembert
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There are two things about the Pacific Division that I am certain about right now.
First, the Warriors need—and probably want—a better starting center. Second, the Maloofs are tight-pocketed, so they won't be re-signing Samuel Dalembert.
Golden State should make a run at all the big free agent centers out there like Nene, Tyson Chandler and possibly Yao Ming or look at a sign-and-trade for Greg Oden, but I just don't see any of those guys coming through.
So, that leaves Samuel Dalembert, who would just have to move over a few counties and would give the Warriors some much needed ferocity down low.
Memphis Keeps Marc Gasol
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It may be Memphis, which isn't exactly a lucrative city to a 26-year-old multimillionaire, but Marc Gasol is in a perfect situation.
He is complemented perfectly by a newly level-headed Zach Randolph, the fans in the city love him, the team is rapidly improving and could be a top-four team within the next two years and the team is willing to pay him, so why leave.
Memphis has one main priority— keeping Gasol—seemingly no matter what price they have to match, as he is a restricted free agent.
I'm confident that you will be seeing Marc Gasol in Memphis next season.
Boston Doesnt Re-Sign Jeff Green
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Boston gave up a lot for Jeff Green earlier this season, basically mortgaging their future for a winger who they hoped could take the load off Paul Pierce and help them get back to the NBA Finals.
Well, what they got was a guy who struggled to find his role, and struggled even more to play defense, so they are a bit soured on him at this point.
It will look bad if they don't re-sign him, but I really expect some team to hope he can turn into a number two or three option (he'll be a three at the very best) and drive the price too high for Boston to care to re-sign him.
That doesn't mean they are completely out of luck this summer, however.
Boston Signs J.R. Smith
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Ray Allen is getting old, he may have just had one of the best years of his career, but he is getting old.
While it seems inevitable that Boston re-signs him for the next few years after his contract runs out in 2012, J.R. Smith would be an excellent addition to their team, and they may just have the means to get him.
Smith is just 25 years old, and Denver probably won't want to overpay for a sixth man when they are wavering between rebuilding and sustaining playoff basketball.
Lakers Sign Rick Adelman
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The Lakers are currently on a search for the replacement of Phil Jackson, and Rick Adelman is at the top of their list right now.
The old saying goes that you don't want to be the guy replacing a legend, but rather the guy replacing the guy who replaced the legend. But when you're replacing a legend with a coach as good as Adelman it might be all right.
Adelman is a players coach, who works and coaches to the strength of his players, which might be better for the Lakers than trying to conform to a triangle offense right now.
Brian Scalabrine Signs with a Contender
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The boldest of bold predictions here: Brian Scalabrine will continue to be the luckiest guy in the NBA next season.
In just his 10th season in the NBA, Scalabrine has been a part of 20 playoff series and counting (playing only 39 games in those series, but still), has been to four NBA Finals and won a championship.
He is a great chemistry guy who works hard in practice and just brings good luck with him wherever he goes, so it goes without saying that a contender should look at him this year.
Maybe his luck will help the Mavericks to the finals next season, or help hold the Lakers together for another year, or possibly put New York over the top.
Whatever the team, you had better bet he'll be on the end of the bench for a team next May.
Timberwolves Sign Caron Butler
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Dallas is facing the trouble of having to re-sign Caron Butler, Tyson Chandler and DeShawn Stevenson this offseason, which could cause them trouble.
Stevenson should be had easily, but Chandler should be their first priority, as good big men are few and far between in the NBA, so that leaves Butler.
He had a great season this year until he went down with an injury a few months back, so his value is high for what he did, but maybe a bit lowered because of that injury.
Butler was having the best shooting season of his career, so it's not a longshot to say that he has reworked his game and figured out how to score more efficiently, which should lead to a team to chuck dollar bills at him.
Who better to fill his pockets than Minnesota, who is in need of a legitimate veteran presence.
Jamal Crawford Gets Overpaid
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Jamal Crawford was the Sixth Man of the Year a season ago, making quite a few people take notice, that is until he fell off a bit this season.
Teams seem to talk themselves into taking a player based on what they hope he can do for them when they are in dire need for help.
So, either Atlanta will empty their checkbook into Crawford's bank account, or someone like Indiana, Houston or Philadelphia will throw oodles of money at him.
Portland Signs T.J Ford
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Portland will first look to re-sign Andre Miller, who is 35 years old, but still wildly productive with the Blazers, but they will still need to look for someone to help him out.
Patty Mills is a decent back-up, but I've never really been very high on him, so I think they look to improve on him.
T.J Ford is in need of a change of scenery, and has a lot of game left in his legs, as he has been in the league for just eight years and is only two years removed from averaging about 15 points and six assists a game.
You Hear a Lot About the Cavs, but They Dont Do Much
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One team that has a good amount of cap space this summer is the Cleveland Cavaliers, and you should hear a lot about them this summer.
They caught a rare windfall last week, winning the draft lottery and grabbing the fourth pick as well.
Cleveland should have a few players on their radar, as they would obviously love to grab a good young player like Aaron Afflalo (they have a huge SF hole) or Marc Gasol (who wouldn't want him), but they probably won't be making a huge offer unless a player shows interest in them.
I'm thinking they want to see what they have on their team this fall and evaluate all of that patiently before they make any huge moves.
Kevin McHale Coaches the Rockets
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The guy at the top of the Houston Rockets head coach is currently Kevin McHale, who has gone back for a second interview with the team.
McHale has said that he doesn't know if he'll get the job, but he does have the desire to coach again.
He may not have had a great showing as a coach for the Timberwolves, but honestly, it was the Timberwolves, who could coach them into prominence?
So, a big name guy (not necessarily a big name coach) is interested in coaching, and a team is interested in signing him. I'd say he'll be there before the draft without a problem.
Houston Gives Yao Ming Another Shot
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Yao Ming has caught the injury bug over the past few seasons, and it has killed his value considerably.
Houston has been his home since 2001, and he has loved the place almost as much as they have loved having him there.
Yao has come out and said that there is no place that he would rather be than Houston, and the Rockets' brass should look at that and realize that he knows his price has dropped and he'll take what they'll give him for the most part.
The only way he isn't in a Rockets' unit this fall (or on their bench more likely) is if some team comes in and offers him a stupidly large contract, which seems unlikely at the time.
Big Baby Follows Big Money
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The NBA is weird.
Yea, that's the understatement of the century, but really it's the only sport where a guy who plays less than half the game is as high profile a guy as Big Baby Davis.
The Celtics like him on their team, but they realize his limitations and shortcomings, which are many, and they won't be overreaching to re-sign him this offseason.
They will obviously do everything within reason to retain him, but some team will without a doubt come along and do something unreasonable, like offer him seven or eight million bucks for the next five years.
Nets, Clippers Bid for Tayshaun Prince
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Two teams that could have possibly made the playoffs with another piece (and having Deron Williams earlier in the year for the Nets) would have been the Clippers and Nets.
They both have rather large holes in their three-spot, with the Nets sporting Travis Outlaw and the Clippers Jamario Moon and Ryan Gomes.
All of these guys would be decent backups, but they are not starters.
Tayshaun Prince could fill that hole for either team, plus give them some much needed veteran leadership and possibly revitalize his career.
I see a bidding war in the future for Prince, who could help either of these teams immensely.
Miami Doesn't Have Enough Money
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There are plenty of players out there that the Heat would love to have, but they have at least $65 million locked up for next season, and very little to offer in a sign-and-trade.
The Heat do have their mid-level exception and veteran exception at their disposal, plus a few other salary cap caveats, but they won't be enough to add a substantial piece.
They could end up with a decent role player if they sell their team well to a savvy veteran like Jeff Foster or Tony Battie at center.
Phoenix Starts the Rebuild
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It has been fun to watch everything that has been happening with the Phoenix Suns in the past few years, as they have survived nearly everything because of Steve Nash.
Without Nash, they would have had a great shot at a top-three lottery pick, with him they were a borderline playoff team.
Now it is going to take a miracle to hold them together.
Steve Nash is a free agent in 2012, and there is speculation abound that they will trade him before that, something I don't think will happen until the season starts.
This summer, however, they definitely will pass on re-signing Vince Carter and should be ready to part ways with Grant Hill.
Greg Oden Sign-and-Trade
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This is a rumor that gained steam up until about March, at which point people got tired of speculating and it sputtered out.
Greg Oden has spent more money on microfracture surgeries in the past two years than Antoine Walker has made in the past four years, and it just seems like he needs a new team.
Oden is a restricted free agent this year, making it easy for Portland to facilitate a sign-and-trade with a team looking to take a chance on a big man that could get over his injury problems and turn into a franchise center like Indiana, Golden State, Toronto or even Cleveland, but many more teams would likely get in on that action.
