2011 NBA Draft Lottery Scenarios: 10 Theories for the Upcoming Draft Lottery
The NBA draft combine has provided some telling information about the 2011 NBA draft class. It also reminds us that draft night is on the horizon.
We have learned to expect the unexpected when reporting on the 2011 NBA draft, but there are still certain scenarios and theories that can be made. Of course, Kyrie Irving will in all likelihood be taken at pick No. 1 next month. Let us dive deeper though and try to gain a better understanding of what dominoes will fall where.
Here are 10 burning issues to watch during the NBA draft lottery.
Charles Jenkins Will Be a Lottery Selection
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Charles Jenkins' stock has been rising, and I would not be shocked to see the Hofstra guard taken as one of the first 14 picks in the NBA draft next month.
Jenkins can torch the nets from beyond the arc, as evidenced by his 42 percent three-point shooting. He may have flown under the radar playing at Hofstra, but his production at the school was incredible. Jenkins never averaged less than 15 points per game during his four collegiate campaigns. At 6'3", 220 lbs., he also has ideal size for the point guard position.
Scouts are also impressed with Jenkins’ strength and quickness.
The obvious knock on this prospect will be that he achieved those gaudy statistics against less than stellar competition, playing in the Colonial Conference. This has not slowed down a growing buzz that is building around the Hofstra product though.
Jenkins’ buzz will only continue to grow, and ultimately he will work his way into the lottery over the course of the next month.
Brandon Knight Is Sacramento’s Point Guard of the Future at Pick No. 7
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Sacramento’s most pressing need as a franchise is at point guard. Pooh Jeter and Beno Udrih are simply not players that the Kings can move into the future with.
Brandon Knight is my third-rated point guard prospect, but both Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker are off the board at this point in the first round.
Knight will have the opportunity to play in the backcourt with high-powered shooting guard and fellow John Calipari-coached prospect Tyreke Evans.
Knight was one of the top-rated high school talents in the country last year as rated by Rivals. He had a great freshman campaign at Kentucky and played some of his best basketball during the NCAA tournament.
Brandon Knight has the skills to heavily contribute as a rookie, and he will be an upgrade over the Kings' current options at point guard.
Marcus Morris Is Headed to Golden State at Pick No. 11
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Golden State needs help in the frontcourt. The franchise has David Lee, but there is little quality depth at the power forward position as a whole. Meanwhile, Andris Biedrins and Ekpe Udoh have not proven to be long-term solutions at center.
At 6'9", 235 lbs., Morris can provide depth at the power forward position as well as man the center spot. He has a soft touch on his jump shot and is a rugged rebounder. Morris also shoots 34 percent from behind the arc, which allows him to not be one-dimensional on offense.
Marcus Morris looked comfortable in fast-break situations at Kansas. This is good because he will probably be in a similar scenario in Golden State with Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry in the backcourt.
Morris is a great pick for the franchise here because he fills a need and is also a great talent at pick No. 11.
This Lottery Class Is As Weak As It Looks
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Point guard Kyrie Irving appears to be the only “franchise” talent in this year’s draft class. Also, there is a huge emphasis on potential and few definite immediate contributors.
European talents Bismack Biyombo and Jonas Valanciunas are two prospects in particular that are receiving high draft projections because of their potential for greatness. This is an indication that there are few blockbuster talents to be had at the top of the draft class.
Colorado’s Alec Burks and Tennessee’s Tobias Harris are nice prospects, but this is one of the few years that either one would be the valued lottery selection that he is right now.
If anything, expect this class’ value to increase over the long term rather than immediately due to the high number of developmental prospects that will be taken.
Yao Ming’s Future Will Determine Houston’s Selection
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Yao Ming will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Whether the former No. 1 pick decides to re-sign with Houston will greatly affect which direction it chooses to go with its selection at pick No. 14.
Injury has obviously been a major theme throughout Yao’s career. It is uncertain how aggressively the Rockets will attempt to re-sign the big man this summer.
Chuck Hayes has performed valiantly in place of the injured Ming, but at 6'6" the undersized Hayes can only do so much. This is obviously an area that could be addressed with the uncertainty surrounding the position.
The Rockets could also upgrade their talent at the small forward position. Terrence Williams and Chase Budinger are nice talents, but neither player appears to be a long-term fixture on the wing.
Utah Will Set the Tone for the Remainder of the Lottery
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At pick No. 1, Kyrie Irving will likely be selected as Cleveland’s point guard of the future. Minnesota, meanwhile, will either select Turkey’s Enes Kanter or Arizona’s Derrick Williams to beef up its frontcourt.
The madness will begin when Utah makes its selection at pick No. 3. Utah will most likely select either a point guard or a low-post presence. Center Al Jefferson and point guard Devin Harris are great talents, but both players could use help at their respective positions.
Possible selections here include point guards Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight or a big man such as Williams or Kanter.
Regardless, the direction the Jazz decide to go at pick No. 3 will greatly influence how the rest of the lottery plays out.
Minnesota May Trade Out of Pick No. 2
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Minnesota will in all likelihood no longer draft Duke’s Kyrie Irving. The question now becomes what will Minnesota do with the No. 2 pick.
There has been a lot of speculation about the franchise drafting Derrick Williams as an immediate impact talent or selecting Enes Kanter to pair with Kevin Love in the post.
Does Minnesota feel strongly enough about either one of those options to spend its pick on that scenario?
Obviously, the right situation would have to be presented to the franchise, but you would have to think that Minnesota would be open to trade offers. Some might argue that the franchise needs to draft an impact talent now instead of trading down. I would agree that the Timberwolves do need a lot of help after only winning 17 games last season, but the franchise should not settle on a pick just for the sake of drafting a prospect.
Jan Vesely Is the Most Intriguing Lottery Prospect
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Jan Vesely of the Czech Republic is a very intriguing prospect. At 6'11", 240 lbs., Vesely plays on the wing as a small forward.
Vesely is not just a developmental prospect either. Scouts are raving about Vesely’s elite athleticism. One scout even went as far to say that his electrifying dunks have made him something of the Blake Griffin of the European circuit.
There are still areas where Vesely’s skills need to develop. Scouts point to his lack of ball-handling prowess as one specific area that needs improvement. With that being said, there is a lot to like about this prospect.
At 21 years of age, Vesely is actually older than many of the other international players in the draft class.
Most mocks are projecting Jan Vesely to be a top-10 selection. He will not be the most recognizable name on draft night, but Vesely will be a player to watch down the road.
Does Phoenix Absolutely Need to Draft a Point Guard at Pick No. 13?
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I have been mocking BYU’s Jimmer Fredette at pick No. 13 to Phoenix in every one of my mock drafts thus far.
I am wondering, though, if point guard is a position of absolute necessity for the Suns in the first round. Steve Nash is at the tail end of his career at age 37, and he only has a few more years left in his storied career. Backup point guard Aaron Brooks will be a restricted free agent this summer. I am not convinced that Zabian Dowdell can carry Nash’s mantle into the future.
The Suns could also use help on the wing as well. Vince Carter is aging, and Jared Dudley has been far from spectacular throughout his first three seasons in the league.
A small forward would be nice here, but ultimately Phoenix needs to find a point guard to lead it into the future.
Kenneth Faried Is Moving in the Right Direction
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I am not sure if Kenneth Faried can jump all the way to the back end of the lottery, but his stock is certainly moving in the right direction.
Faried earned buzz in college after he broke Tim Duncan’s NCAA rebounding record as a senior at Morehead State. He played all four seasons at Morehead and averaged 17.3 points and 14.5 rebounds as a senior.
I have always been a fan of Faried’s game, but he really helped himself this weekend at the NBA combine in Chicago. Faried played with tremendous energy and showed great poise during an interview with ESPN’s Andy Katz.
In my earlier mocks, I had Faried penciled in at pick No. 29 to San Antonio as the heir apparent to Tim Duncan at power forward. It now seems highly unlikely that he will fall that far, and a spot at the end of the lottery does not seem completely far-fetched for the Morehead State product.
