Matt Garza: The Best Move for the Chicago Cubs—And Any MLB Team

The Cubs are barren of pitching. This is why they traded for Matt Garza this offseason. Their starting pitching staff is one of the worst in the league, even with him this year. But, the Cubs may have finally succeeded in making the correct offseason splash this year with the acquisition of Garza.

Garza may represent the best available pitcher of not only this past offseason, but the upcoming one as well, if CC Sabathia does not opt out of his contract at the end of this year. Garza is matching the performance of Cliff Lee this year; Zack Greinke has just started to pitch (thanks to his ribs), and Shaun Marcum has had the most success so far this season, but he does not bring the "stuff" and potential that Garza supplies.  

Garza is quietly having the best season of his career and is working himself into the upper echelon of NL pitching.  He is only 2-4, but he is often overpowering NL hitters and he has improved on his weakest statistic—home runs. Garza has struck out 68 hitters in 55.2 innings pitched, while only allowing one home run (to Jay Bruce) in that same period. He averaged 24 HR surrendered per year in his three years in Tampa.

The Cubs have not been able to take advantage of Garza's performances this year. At times, it has been a simple lack of run support. Fielding has been the culprit at other times. Garza has allowed 30 runs in his nine starts, but only 23 of those runs have been earned.   

Garza has walked more batters while striking out more, leaving him with a WHIP that is about a tenth of a point higher than it has been over the past three years. This minimal advance in walks and hits is more than made up for by the 11 K/9, nearly three Ks higher than his career-high mark in 2009.  

Additionally, Garza's 3.4 K/BB ratio is a whole one K higher than his career mark, also set in 2009.

Garza's performance in 2011 looks a lot like the much more heralded Cliff Lee. They both have the same record; the same amount of strikeouts, and similar averages (ERA, WHIP, OPP. BA).  

The Cubs will shed their biggest contracts over the next three years. This allows them time to clear payroll for Garza, long-term, who will be a free agent in 2014. It is at that time the Cubs need to ensure that they surround Garza, their ace, with a team that will compete for a World Series. They need to build wisely, but hopefully the Garza trade represents that the Cubs are heading in that direction.