PGA Tour: The Curse of the 54-Hole Lead

Holding the 54-hole lead at a big-time event has recently turned into some kind of curse.

At last week's Players Championship we saw yet another Sunday come and go with the 54-hole leader posting yet another massive number.

As Harry Caray might say, "Holy cow."

The last guy to actually lead a big tournament after 54 holes and close the door on Sunday was Louis Oosthuizen at the 2010 Open Championship.

Dustin Johnson had a three-stroke lead after 54 holes at the U.S. Open only to fire an 82 on Sunday and finish T-8. Johnson's final-round 82 was the highest score posted by a 54-hole U.S. Open leader since Fred McLeod shot an 83 in 1911.

Nick Watney entered the final round of last year’s PGA Championship leading by three strokes, posted a final-round 81 and finished T-18.

Rory McIlroy began the final round of the Masters with a four-stroke lead, lost his lead by the third hole, triple-bogeyed the 10th, wound up carding an 80 and tied for 15th.

And then we come to Graeme McDowell at last week’s Players Championship.

Although McDowell led by only one stroke heading into the final round, he was by no means immune to the 54-hole leader curse. McDowell posted a final-round 79 and tied for 33rd.

Contrary to popular belief, Sunday afternoon meltdowns are not a new phenomenon.

Arnold Palmer had a six-stroke lead with just nine holes to play at the 1966 U.S. Open and wound up losing to Billy Casper in an 18-hole playoff the following day.

Greg Norman had a five-stroke lead heading into the final round of the 1996 Masters only to post a 78 and lose by three strokes to Nick Faldo.

Retief Goosen had a three-stroke lead heading into the final round of the 2006 U.S. Open only to card an 81 on Sunday and hand the tournament to Michael Campbell.

Ken Venturi shot an 80 in the final round of the 1956 Masters when, like McIlroy, he was holding a four-stroke lead after 54 holes.

Although Sunday meltdowns have occurred throughout the game's history, the frequency with which they are occurring seems to be trending upwards.

Perhaps now is a good time to sit back and appreciate just how ridiculous Tiger Woods' streak of closing out 13 consecutive major championships when holding at least a share of the 54-hole lead was. The guy went more then a decade without letting a 54-hole lead slip away at a major.

Perhaps now is also a good time to come to terms with the fact that the learning curve for many of these "young guns" may be a lot steeper than what we are accustomed to seeing from great players.

As Brandel Chamblee likes to point out every other day on The Golf Channel, there is no greater predictor of greatness than winning a major championship at a young age. Virtually all of the truly great players in the game's history, other than Ben Hogan and Phil Mickelson, won major championships early in their careers.

With all of the time and effort spent on creating the perfect golf swing, the perfect putting stroke, the perfect "golf body," the perfect marketable image, etc., the one skill that is absolutely vital to winning any big-time event seems to have escaped this class of talented young players—the nerve to close out a tournament on Sunday.

We are now entering a new era in professional golf, and it’s an era that might look quite different from anything we have ever seen before.

Interested in making a few bucks?

Well, here's a bit of advice for you—if a talented young player is holding the 54-hole lead at the U.S. Open in July, bet the farm on the rest of the field.

For more PGA Tour news, insight and analysis, check out The Tour Report.