Pittsburgh Steelers: Projecting Stats for Ben Roethlisberger's 2011 Season

Projecting anything in the NFL right now, particularly with the lockout destined to last at least another month and probably much longer, is a tricky business. That said, it's time to start crossing our fingers and looking ahead to what will hopefully be a full slate of games in 2011.

Ben Roethlisberger certainly will have something to prove after a subpar Super Bowl XLV performance that left many fans with a sour taste after such a magical season.

There's no doubt that Roethlisberger will put up numbers in 2011. The question is just what can we expect from the man with the (black and) golden arm. Here's a look at what the statistics might turn out to be.

Looking Back To Look Forward

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BALTIMORE, MD - DECEMBER 05: Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers throws the ball against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on December 5, 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Geoff Burke/Getty Images)

The most certain thing about Ben Roethlisberger is the numbers that he's already put up. Let's take a look at some key years in his career.

2010 (12 games)

240-389 (61.7%), 3,200 yards, 17 TD, 5 INT (97.0 QB Rating)

2009 (15 games)

337-506 (66.6%), 4,328 yards, 26 TD, 12 INT (100.5 QB Rating)

2005 (12 games)

168-268 (62.7%), 2,385 yards, 17 TD, 9 INT (98.6 QB Rating)

Why These Years?

Good question. You obviously want to look at what he's done lately, hence 2010. 2009 was the most recent season in which he played almost a full schedule of games. 2005 is the last season in which the Steelers had a strong offensive line and leaned heavily on the runboth of which seem in the cards this year.

Things To Consider

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CLEVELAND, OH - JANUARY 02: Wide receiver Hines Ward #86 of the Pittsburgh Steelers celebrates after scoring a touchdown with wide receiver Mike Wallace #17 against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium on January 2, 2011 in Cleveland, Ohio.

Strength of Supporting Cast

The Steelers currently sport one of the most talented receiving groups in the NFL. They have the fast and sure-handed Mike Wallace, the steady and dangerous Hines Ward, the still-unfulfilled potential in Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders (we've only begun to see and imagine what these guys can do) and the talent still remaining in Antwaan Randle El, Limas Sweed and Wes Lyons.

There's every likelihood that Big Ben will have open targets. Let's not forget about tight end Heath Miller, one of Roethlisberger's favorite targets in the red zone and on tough plays, running back Rashard Mendenhall and running back Isaac Redman. All of these players will make some contribution to the passing game too. Add in rookie Baron Batch, a Reggie Bush-type versatile talent and you have a deep, threatening set of weapons.

The Offensive Line

The Steelers had a character-building year along the offensive line thanks to a host of nasty injuries. What they found out was that backups like Doug Legursky and Ramon Foster could step in and be effective and, in Legursky's case, spectacular.

Add to that the rookie talent of tackle Marcus Gilbert and the potential returns of Max Starks (injury) and Willie Colon (injury/free agency) and there is a great chance the Steelers will finally boast a strong line again. A strong line will do wonders for those high sack totals.

The Wild Card Factor

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ARLINGTON, TX - FEBRUARY 06: Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers calls a play against the Green Bay Packers during Super Bowl XLV at Cowboys Stadium on February 6, 2011 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

Here's a few wild cards the go along with Ben Roethlisberger before we get to projecting some statistics:

Injuries

Roethlisberger has started all 16 games only once (2008), and only twice (2008, 2010) has started every contest he was available for. He does get a lot of injuries from the way he plays. It's never possible to predict how that will impact a season.

Style

Roethlisberger's style of play is one of making whatever play is available. In a league of either passing quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady) or running quarterbacks (Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick), his style makes statistics hard to plan out.

System

The Steelers were supposed to lean more heavily on the run last year, yet Roethlisberger's numbers did not significantly drop off from 2009. There's reason to believe an improved line will help the return to the rushing attack and could eat into the stellar numbers he put up the last two years.

2011 Projected Statistics

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ARLINGTON, TX - FEBRUARY 06: Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers celebrates after Rashard Mendenhall #34 ran for an eight yard touchdown against the Green Bay Packers in the third quarter of Super Bowl XLV at Cowboys Stadium on February 6, 2

Here's a look at what his statistics might shape up to be and an explanation of how I reached these numbers.

220-340 (64.7%), 3,150 yards, 18 TD, 8 INT

Why?

I'm going to predict that the re-dedication to running the ball will decrease the attempts to 2005-2007 levels. I'm also going to say he completes a higher percentage of passes now that he has four veteran receivers that can catch any ball in their area.

The yardage is a representation of realistic numbers for a quarterback in this offense that is throwing roughly 45 percent of the time. It's a ballpark calculation at best, a rough guess at worst. I'm figuring that he's still going to throw often and will probably go deep since he has Wallace, Brown and Sanders stretching the field.

The TD/INT numbers are based upon an extrapolation of his career numbers while also accounting for the adjustments to his attempts, completion percentage and yardage. An improved offensive line will help his INT total drop, but I'm not sure how many touchdowns he'll toss if the team truly starts running the ball more often.