French Open 2011: 6 Reasons Roger Federer Won't Win at Roland Garros
With the French Open looming large, the talk is focused on mostly Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. However, Roger Federer, winner of 16 Grand Slam titles, has not been in the limelight recently. His game hasn't been great recently, and here are six reasons why he won't win in Paris at Roland Garros.
Age
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At 29, Federer’s age is catching up to him. Younger players have been able to move him around like never before, and on clay he’s going to have to move even more. Although his footwork and stamina have always been key components to his game, they are not getting any better as his age increases. He’s been a step slow recently and a good strategy is to move him from side to side.
Hopefully for Roger, his aging body will be able to withstand the challenge.
Backhand
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Roger’s weakness has always been his backhand. Everyone’s strategy against him is to hit to his backhand. Some players, especially Nadal, have executed this plan to perfection. One of the things people associate with him is shanking (framing) balls on his backhand. Lately, he has been framing more than ever before. Clay is the worst surface for this tendency of his because as the ball kicks up more, he is forced to hit the backhand at head height.
If more players start realizing what to do against him, this could prove a problem at the French.
His Previous French Title Has an Asterisk
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Federer won the French open in 2009. That's what the record books say. Nadal had won four French Opens before that, but tendinitis caused him to lose a fourth-round match against Robin Soderling. This meant that the most dominant clay-court player, who had won 31 consecutive matches a Roland Garros coming in to the match with Soderling, was out of the draw, and therefore Federer didn't have to play him in the final.
Coming into tournaments, previous victories are important, but unfortunately for Federer, his only win in Paris came with an injured Nadal, who couldn't play Fed in the final.
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Lack of Confidence Due to Recent Form
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Federer has had a relatively slow start to 2011. He captured the season-opener in Doha, but has been in only one final since. While clay has always been his worst surface, this years results have been especially sub-par. He lost in the quarters in Monte-Carlo (to Melzer), semis in Madrid (Nadal) and third round last week in Rome (Gasquet). His confidence has been plummeting. Not only that, but he has been showing anger and frustration, traits that were never seen in his dominant days.
With his early losses and great form shown by his rivals, it will be tough for Federer to get where he needs to be mentally in order to win.
Rafael Nadal
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Although Nadal has struggled to get by one huge hurdle in Novak Djokovic (an 0-4 record), he’s always had Federer’s number, especially on clay. He holds an overall 16-8 head to head record, including 11-2 on clay, and has beat him the last two times they’ve played. In Madrid, Roger was able to steal the first set, but it got sour in a hurry for the Swiss, as he lost 7-5, 3-6, 1-6.
If Federer were to meet Rafa, he would struggle to take three sets off Nadal on any surface, but at the French (Nadal’s house), he’ll be lucky to take one.
Novak Djokovic
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Novak Djokovic has owned 2011, winning seven tournaments and going undefeated (37-0.) The Serb has already beaten Nadal four times (twice on clay) and Federer three times. His newly renewed ground stroke power and quick footwork have taken his game to the next level. Last year, he was known as a second-rate player who always made at least the quarters in majors. Now he is some regard him as the best in the world.
In a match between Roger and Novak, the odds would heavily favor the latter.
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