Fantasy Football 2011: Predicting the Order the Top 10 Rookies Will Get Drafted

With the 2011 NFL draft in the books, fantasy football owners can assess which rookies will make an impact on next year’s fantasy season.

Which new QBs will produce in their first NFL seasons? Which sleepers are worth a late-round pickup?

Herein, the likely order in which the first 10 rookies will come off the board in fantasy drafts next fall.

10. Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans

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SEATTLE - OCTOBER 30: Quarterback Jake Locker #10 of the Washington Huskies scrambles against the Stanford Cardinal on October 30, 2010 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. Stanford won 41-0. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Even in the best-case scenario, Jake Locker is facing an uphill battle.

He’s a rookie QB who will likely be asked to start from day one, on a team without a top-tier receiving corps.

Still, his status as the presumptive starter may convince some fantasy owners to give him a look.

Most, though, will likely shy away thanks to the very real questions about whether Locker is ready for the NFL.

9. Christian Ponder, QB, Minnesota Vikings

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TALLAHASSEE, FL - NOVEMBER 27: Christian Ponder #7 of the Florida State Seminoles throws for a first down during a game against the Florida Gators at Doak Campbell Stadium on November 27, 2010 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

There are a lot of question marks surrounding Christian Ponder, but he’ll probably be a late-round pick from fantasy owners who don’t mind rolling the dice.

If Ponder is ready to play at the NFL level, the starting job is his. If the Vikings re-sign Sidney Rice, and if Percy Harvin’s battles with migraines are behind him, Ponder will have a strong receiving corps.

And if those “if”s don’t break Ponder’s way, he could also be a fantasy disaster.

8. Jon Baldwin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

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PITTSBURGH - DECEMBER 05: Jonathan Baldwin #82 of the University of Pittsburgh Panthers catches a pass against the Cincinnati Bearcats on December 5, 2009 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.(Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Jon Baldwin was the beneficiary of Kansas City’s search for a No. 2 option to pair with Dwayne Bowe at wideout.

The first-round pick has impressive size at 6’4” and could become a solid NFL receiver for Matt Cassel next year.

As a fantasy choice, though, Baldwin’s stock is hurt somewhat by the fact that Bowe and TE Tony Moeaki are both valuable goal-line receivers, which takes away the most obvious place for a big target like Baldwin to rack up fantasy points.

7. Lance Kendricks, TE, St. Louis Rams

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MADISON, WI - SEPTEMBER 18: Lance Kendricks #84 of the Wisconsin Badgers catches a pass against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Camp Randall Stadium on September 18, 2010 in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin defeated Arizona State 20-19. (Photo by Jonathan Da

Even though Notre Dame’s Kyle Rudolph is probably the best rookie TE in terms of talent, Lance Kendricks is the one most worth a look in fantasy.

Rudolph will be playing behind an established veteran (Visanthe Shiancoe) in a run-heavy Vikings offense.

Kendricks, on the other hand, joins Sam Bradford’s more pass-friendly squad and has a chance to start immediately.

In a receiving corps short on elite talent, Kendricks could put up good numbers by TE standards.

6. Greg Little, WR, Cleveland Browns

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BLACKSBURG, VA - OCTOBER 29: Running back Greg Little #8 of the North Carolina Tar Heels runs with the ball against the Virginia Tech University Hokies during the game at Lane Stadium on October 29, 2009 in Blacksburg, Virginia. (Photo by Scott Halleran

Colt McCoy looks like a QB on the way up, which makes his potential receivers attractive sleepers in fantasy leagues.

Considering that the top returning wideout on the roster (Mohamed Massaquoi) caught all of 36 balls, there’s room for a rookie to step in as the potential No. 1 target.

Greg Little doesn’t have the flashy numbers of some college wideouts, but he’s a physical target with sure hands.

He probably won’t log many home-run plays, but could rack up TDs in goal-line situations.

5. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints

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TUSCALOOSA, AL - NOVEMBER 13: Running back Mark Ingram #22 of the Alabama Crimson Tide rushes upfield against the Mississippi State Bulldogs November 13, 2010 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

Even coming off a down year, there are few higher-powered offenses that any rookie could be joining than the New Orleans Saints.

The ground game won’t be a priority, but Ingram is likely to be the primary ball-carrier and will get his share of touches.

Ingram is also a competent receiver, and Drew Brees knows how to get the ball to his running backs, which should also help Ingram’s fantasy value.

4. Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens

The biggest hole in the Baltimore offense last year was the lack of a deep threat at wideout.

Torrey Smith will get every chance to prove that he can fill that hole.

With Joe Flacco to get him the ball, and Anquan Boldin attracting attention on the other side of the field, Smith is well positioned for success.

If he can improve his consistency catching the ball, the fleet-footed Maryland product should be a solid fantasy option next year.

3. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

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AUBURN, AL - NOVEMBER 13: A.J. Green #8 of the Georgia Bulldogs against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 13, 2010 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The QB situation in Cincinnati is a major question mark, or A.J. Green might be listed even higher.

He’s the most talented wide receiver in this draft class, and could become one of the top five fantasy wideouts if the Bengals offense finds its rhythm around him.

With Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson both presumably gone as free agents, the No. 1 receiving job is Green’s to lose.

2. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

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TUSCALOOSA, AL - NOVEMBER 26: Julio Jones #8 of the Alabama Crimson Tide is tackled by Neiko Thorpe #15 and Eltoro Freeman #21 of the Auburn Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 26, 2010 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Even the second-best wide receiver in Atlanta is going to get a lot of balls thrown his way.

Julio Jones won’t be picked ahead of Roddy White, but he’ll still be a very strong fantasy option.

Barring an injury to Matt Ryan, it’s hard to see how Jones doesn’t become an outstanding receiver in 2011.

1. Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

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GLENDALE, AZ - JANUARY 10: Cameron Newton #2 of the Auburn Tigers scrambles against the Oregon Ducks during the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game at University of Phoenix Stadium on January 10, 2011 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Peters

Cam Newton isn’t nearly as sure a bet to succeed as some of the WRs in this draft, but if he succeeds, it could be big.

Somebody’s likely to take a chance on that possibility, even if he’s got definite bust potential as well.

Newton won’t have much of a receiving corps to work with, but he’ll be starting from Day 1, so he’ll get his chance to rack up fantasy points.