2011 NHL Playoff Predictions: Round 3

Round 2 of the 2011 NHL Playoffs is history and featured two bad mismatches, an over-matched team making a gallant try and only one great playoff series.

I went 2-2 in this round, narrowly missing a winning record when Detroit lost and being undone when Philadelphia played bad hockey.

As in every prediction article I write, I'll start by listing the players whose careers took a downward turn, then a prediction about the fates of the losing teams, before tackling who will make it to the Stanley Cup Final.

PLAYERS WHOSE CAREERS ARE IN A TAIL SPIN

Every Philadelphia Goaltender

It didn't help that the whole Philadelphia team played bad hockey, but they didn't have one goaltender who shamed them into playing better by keeping them in the game. 

Unless Philadelphia plugs this gaping hole, they can forget about ever contending for the Stanley Cup and are in danger of not making the playoffs if the teams below them keep improving.

Alexander Ovechkin

He wasn't the worst Washington Capital, but Washington's easy exit means another diminishing of his status.  No longer can he be compared with Sidney Crosby as the best player in the league, and even his status as the best Russian in the league is now questionable. 

Ovechkin's play is being described as sporadic. He can be the player everyone imagines him to be, then he disappears for long periods.  He is still a great talent, but forget about him being the guy who can lift a team and win a playoff series for them.  Certainly not on this edition of the Washington Capitals.

Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom

One of the reasons that Ovechkin under-performed is that the other "stars" on the Capitals were horrid.  No "star" was worse than Backstrom who failed to score a goal, and Semin has the distinction of being publicly called to be traded off the team by TSN commentator Pierre McGuire after being caught loafing on camera.

Mike Fisher and Sergei Kostitsyn

The Nashville Predators have a popgun for an attack, and the two worst dead-weights on the forward line were Fisher and Kostitsyn. 

Fisher used to be the guy who would get clutch goals for Ottawa when their top stars were kept in check.  He failed to lift his game at any time in his new Nashville surroundings.  Kostitsyn played bad hockey from the first Vancouver game to the last.  Neither will be missed if Nashville trades them.

Daniel and Henrik Sedin

Sure the Canucks moved on, but it was no thanks to the Sedins.  Ever since Dave Boland appeared in the Chicago series, the twins have mostly disappeared.  Still worse, they have become a defensive liability. 

It seemed that every time the opposition scored, the Sedins were on the ice leaving the twins with horrible plus/minus statistics.  Their role on the team has changed too.  They have now become Thornton/Marleau/Heatly figures.  The Canucks are now Ryan Kesler's team.

THE FATE OF THE LOSING TEAMS

Philadelphia Flyers

They played bad hockey as soon as the first puck was dropped.  They should have had a huge psychological edge on the Bruins after their historic comeback in last year's playoffs.  Instead, they handed the series on a platter to Boston when not one player can say that he played good hockey. 

The two worst aspects about the Flyers are their horrible goaltending and that they can't mount much of a fight when Chris Pronger is not in the lineup.  If these two problems aren't solved, not only can the Flyers forget about contending for the Stanley Cup, but there is a good chance they might not make the playoffs next year if the teams below them improve. 

Washington Capitals

 As I mentioned in more detail in a previous article, there has got to be a shake up coming after four years of only being able to beat the New York Rangers. 

The goaltending is mediocre, the stars don't play like stars and the team doesn't show much grit and character.  In fact, that is the main problem with the Capitals.  They don't have any Keslers, Setoguchis, Boyles or even a Joel Ward to rise to the occasion when a crisis occurs. 

Things will probably get worse before they get better as the Capitals struggle to find a chemistry to lift the team higher.

Nashville Predators

The little team that tried.  They play great defense, have outstanding goaltending and are well coached, but nothing can make up for lack of talent at forward.  Only Joel Ward and David Legwand looked like first class forwards. 

The Predators are finally starting to become a hit in Nashville.  The real story is if the ownership and management will capitalize on the gains made and go out and get the star forwards in the offseason that the team desperately needs.  If they don't do that, the Predators will just spin their wheels and or even go backwards. 

Detroit Red Wings

It can't be denied, the Red Wings have lost a few notches since the championship year.  They are not finishing first overall like they used to.  Last year, a tough series with Phoenix was blamed for the reason that Detroit lost to San Jose.  There is no excuse like that this time. 

Though Detroit showed its character by coming back from a 3-0 deficit, there were stretches of play, particularly in the first three games when it looked like San Jose was toying with them. 

Most of their veteran players are getting older, so they won't get any better.  Detroit is still a contender, but some careful tweaking with the roster needs to be done, or more teams besides the Sharks will learn how to eat octopus in the playoffs.

PREDICTIONS

Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Despite finally advancing to the third round of the playoffs, Boston hasn't been that impressive.  They managed to beat arch-nemesis, talent-deficient Montreal in seven games and then have Philadelphia commit suicide and hand them a series without much effort by playing horrible hockey. 

Boston couldn't score a power-play goal against Montreal and then struggled against a bad Philadelphia team. 

In contrast, the Lightning took out a tough Pittsburgh team and then easily erased Washington.  Their top stars are playing like stars, and they are getting great support from the lesser lights.  Boston's best chance for victory is if Tim Thomas out duels Dwayne Roloson, but Roloson has shown that he still has enough to get Tampa back to the finals for the first time in seven years. 

Tampa Bay in six.

Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks

The only good thing for Vancouver in the Nashville series was discovering its future leader, Ryan Kesler, who almost single-handedly  put the Canucks into Round 3.   The bad news is that the Canucks two stars Daniel and Henrik Sedin looked like their San Jose counterparts of previous years Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Dany Heatly, who disappear in the playoffs when the going gets tough. 

The Sedins have become defensive liabilities with horrible plus/minus statistics.  In contrast, the Sharks finally have enough character players to cover up for the floaters and even make them look better than they really are. 

Still worse, Vancouver goaltender Roberto Luongo has never been the difference maker in the Stanley Cup playoffs.  He wasn't even the best goalie in the Nashville series, but you don't have to be when you face a popgun attack.  What's alarming is that the Canucks still lost two games despite having a huge talent edge at forward over Nashville. 

Now they have to face Antti Niemi who had their number when he was with Chicago last year.  That's not too promising.  And both Chicago and Nashville have proved that Vancouver doesn't have a home-ice advantage. 

Vancouver has always desperately wanted to prove that they are a contender who can play with the big boys, but they have struggled to beat a much-weakened Chicago and a talent short Nashville.  They still aren't true contenders. 

Vancouver has only one Kesler, while San Jose has stockpiled several like him on their roster.  The Sharks will finally get over the hump and make the finals for the first time in a maximum of six games.