Fantasy Football 2011: Predicting A.J. Green and the Top 10 Fantasy Rookie Picks
The 2011 NFL Draft is past and players divided up, which allows football fans to get down to the real question: who are the rookies to target in this summer's fantasy football drafts?
Sometimes, NFL rookies hit the ground running. They work hard in camp, say all the right things, sign a contract without drama and get enough reps to make an impact once the games start. Once in the regular rotation, they start improving exponentially with experience.
Other times, rookies have a rough first year or two. Maybe they don't get the situation they want out of the draft. They're recovering from an injury or holding out for a better rookie contract. They miss significant offseason workout time, then get buried with few reps during training camp. Once September rolls around, they find themselves on the bench and getting few opportunities to make an impact on the field.
Here are 10 NFL rookies who will characterize the former, not the latter.
10. Demarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
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Demarco Murray, the former Oklahoma Sooner, makes the journey across the contentious Texas-Oklahoma border to play for the Cowboys.
In his time in Norman, Murray was a dynamic backfield weapon who could run and catch. Over four years, his role in the passing game increased each year, totaling over 1500 receiving yards and 13 TDs for his career.
He was also prolific as a runner, scoring 50 TD on the ground and notching 1000 yards twice for the Sooners.
As a Cowboy, Murray joins a backfield stuffed with underachievers: Felix Jones, the 2010 starter, Marion Barber, Tashard Choice and Lonyae Miller. Murray projects as a better version of Jones, a fast and athletic back who doesn't like to run between the tackles. He's more the home run playmaker type, but has utility in the pass game just as much as the run game.
Murray will most certainly see carries this year, but his selection by Dallas signals a few things—the presumed end of Marion Barber's time as a Cowboy and the transitioning out of Jones, whose contract ends after 2012.
The Cowboys like what Choice offered last year and might be gravitating toward a Murray-Choice tandem for the future.
9. Ryan Williams, RB, Arizona Cardinals
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The early second-rounder out of Virginia Tech lands in a crowded backfield with the Arizona Cardinals, which will combine with his impending learning curve to yield little fantasy value this year.
Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells, Jason Wright and LaRod Stephens-Howling are all marginal, yet serviceable, backs. Williams comes as the most physically-skilled running back in the draft and is underrated as a receiver. Many think that he could end up being the best back in this draft when all is said and done.
The fact that the Cardinals have made a point to improve the running game the last few seasons and failed in experiments with Wells and Hightower means that they are committed to Williams.
Ken Whisenhunt, the former Steeler offensive coordinator, wants his running game to mirror that of his old team, which means that a consistent, punishing runner is necessary.
Williams could be that guy and, if he overtakes his competitors for touches, he will be a bargain this late in the order of rookie fantasy players.
8. Christian Ponder, QB, Minnesota Vikings
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The selection of Florida State signalcaller Christian Ponder at 12th overall came as a shock to everyone except the people who made the pick.
Ponder is a tough and physical passer that excels on the move with short and medium routes, though he doesn't possess great strength. His spotted injury history and willingness to grit through pain and maintain performance is one of the qualities that caused him to go this high.
The question to ponder (pun intended) is what this pick meant for the Vikings. Are they looking to go with Joe Webb and Tarvaris Jackson and continue to underachieve while Ponder develops as their franchise QB or are they going to throw Ponder into the fire as the immediate starter?
With a new offensive coordinator coming in, this might be the perfect time to start a clean slate with a new guy, though growing pains will rule at first. Bill Musgrave runs a West Coast style that emphasizes a lot of short passes and rollouts, which play to Ponder's strengths.
If they put the young QB in a position to succeed and limit his risk and responsibility, the results and production could exceed all expectations.
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7. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
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Julio Jones, the No. 6 pick out of Alabama, is arguably the best skill player in this class. His physicality and route running make him a ready fit for the step up to the NFL.
His hands aren't as reliable as top receiver A.J. Green's, but his upside and competitive edge are as close to a sure thing as you can find in the NFL. The Falcons moved up to get him, so common sense holds that they'll use him.
The ironic thing is the Falcons had bigger needs on the defensive side, but they traded up to get Jones. For a long time they've lacked a legitimate No. 2 to superstar Roddy White at receiver and Jones has the makeup to be that and more.
Initially, he won't get more snaps than Michael Jenkins or Harry Douglas or Tony Gonzalez, but his production will spike if any of the guys in front of him go down with injury or leave the Falcons.
6. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
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Jonathan Baldwin from Pittsburgh represents a nice value pick for the Kansas City Chiefs at 26th in the first round.
Baldwin, though followed by concerns about his character and maturity, owns massive potential with his elite athleticism and playmaking ability. He is big at nearly 6'5" and physical with defenders. He's at his best when on the run for deep passes that allow him to utilize his 42-inch vertical leap to corral throws.
Baldwin could be a major contributor right away opposite Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs needed a second receiver that can make plays, because Terrance Copper, Verran Tucker and Dexter McCluster aren't dangerous weapons.
Defenses that don't give Baldwin enough respect could get burned by the lanky wideout worse than Dwayne Bowe.
5. Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
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There was plenty of discussion about the merits of Auburn QB and Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton at No. 1. Some think that he doesn't have the quarterbacking fundamentals to match his skills: arm strength, frame and mobility. Some think that he'll be okay as long as the Carolina Panthers don't ask too much of him.
There is full agreement on one thing about Newton: his athleticism is scary and no matter how effective he is as a QB, he will demand a huge amount of attention to be stopped.
The competition for the starting QB job is thin, with second-year player Jimmy Clausen, veteran Matt Moore and Tony Pike in the running. None of them can be what Newton can, though: the face of the franchise and the potentially transcendent talent.
If Newton starts for Carolina, he could be in line for solid fantasy production, though there will be plenty of mistakes in the form of interceptions, missed throws, etc. If he presents himself as a legitimate NFL quarterback, this will be a prime keeper pick.
4. Mikel LeShoure, RB, Detroit Lions
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Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure comes to the Detroit Lions at a great time for the organization.
Last year, the team drafted Jahvid Best, who underachieved but is a capable starting back. Both Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris are fading fast as backups as the Lions look to complement Best's speed game with a physical bruiser with strength.
Leshoure, at 5'11" and 227 pounds, packs enough punch to run between the tackles, but also displays good lateral quickness for a runner of his size. He is the power back that the Lions need to plug into their running attack and should be a disruptive contrast to the pace of Best's running.
If he beats out Smith, Morris and Aaron Brown, Leshoure will be in line for plenty of short-yardage and goal line scenarios, which could lead to a Le'Ron McClain-like production level.
3. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
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The 2009 Heisman Trophy winner took a small step back in his junior year, but the New Orleans Saints are elated to have a runner of his caliber in their stable.
More than any natural skill, Ingram's instincts are what make him stand out from the crowd. He runs with balance and good side-to-side movement, making him difficult to tackle.
He also serves as an adequate receiver out of the backfield, which endangers Reggie Bush's job safety as a primarily a pass catcher.
The Saints were a mess in the backfield in 2010 and will need to upgrade the running game to ensure that defenses stay honest to the run. Ingram has a favorable path to the huddle because of injuries to several backs and the ineffectiveness of Bush.
He will score points if he gets touches just by nature of the high-powered New Orleans attack. Lots of yards and short-yard touchdowns will be in plenty, and a capable running back might convince Sean Payton to opt for the run over the pass.
2. Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami Dolphins
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Daniel Thomas, the runner out of Kansas State, should draw a relatively high fantasy pick despite little notoriety.
The reason is ample opportunity: the Miami Dolphins got Thomas as security for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, both aging free agents.
Thomas isn't special in his class, but he is capable, and about to enter a fortunate situation in Miami. He has quick feet and moves well laterally, though he sometimes struggles with ball security.
At 6' and 230 pounds, Thomas can fill the workhorse role that the Dolphins will need in order to compensate for a flimsy passing game. If Brown and Williams don't pan out in 2011, Thomas is in line to get an above-average number of touches.
1. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
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Any skill player taken this high in the draft is a part of the team's immediate plans.
A.J. Green, taken fourth by the Cincinnati Bengals, will be counted on heavily to take attention away from Chad Ochocinco in the Bengals' passing game.
He is more than capable to do the task because of how complete his skillset is. There is nothing lacking in his game, from his excellent hands, to the crisp routes, to his competitiveness, to excellent body control.
Cincinnati once possessed a feared passing game with Terrell Owens and Ochocinco. With A.J. Green back in the fold, they are well on their way to recovering that reputation. The young receiver will be integral to that end, and his statistical production should be as strong as any rookie in the NFL.
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