Duke Basketball: 10 Bold Predictions for Coach K's Crew in 2011-12
Duke is one of the most successful programs in college basketball history, and they are looking for more in the 2011-12 season.
Duke has a deep roster this season, with a lot of talent coming in and even more staying.
In the 2010-11 campaign, the Blue Devils went 30-4 and won the ACC tournament. Duke was a great program despite losing Kyrie Irving for more than half of the season. Even though they did not win the national title as they were expected to, they were still a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
The 2011-12 season is coming up, and it is time we make our early season predictions. While some may be obvious, these 10 are bold.
DeAndre Daniels Will Come to Duke
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DeAndre Daniels is the highest unsigned recruit left in the ESPN Top 100. Daniels is currently deciding between Texas Longhorns, Kansas Jayhawks, Kentucky Wildcats, Florida Gators and Duke Blue Devils.
Daniels has not given any timetable for his decision, but his most recent visit has been with the Duke Blue Devils.
During the weekend of April 15-16, Daniels went to Duke for the season-ending banquet.
Three months ago, no one saw Duke coming into the mix with Daniels, but their recruitment of him has been swift and effective. Duke seems to be the leading candidate despite coming in so late, and I see Daniels coming to Coach K's crew.
13 Players Will Share Playing Time
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Because Daniels will come to Duke, no less than 13 players will share playing time.
Duke will have six recruits coming in who will make an impact. Those six being Daniels, Austin Rivers, Michael Gbinije, Quinn Cook, Marshall Plumlee and Alex Murphy, who graduated a year early to come to Duke.
Duke also has seven impact players returning to the team for the 2011-12 season. Those seven are Mason and Miles Plumlee, Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly, Josh Hairston and Tyler Thornton.
These 13 players will make Duke a lot deeper than they have been in recent years, and we could see a fast-paced team that utilizes their depth.
Austin Rivers Will Lead Duke in Scoring
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Austin Rivers will only be a freshman for the season, but he is coming in with an incredible skill set and is ranked the No. 1 recruit in the nation.
Rivers is incredibly good in pressure situations and he can make a living hitting shots at the ends of games. He is both quick and fast, which gives him an edge over those who are only one of the two.
Rivers can consistently hit shots up to 30 feet out, has a mid-range game and can drive to the hole.
Rivers is the real deal, and he will be Duke's leading scorer with Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving and Kyle Singler going to the NBA.
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Mason Plumlee Will Be the Leading Rebounder
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Mason Plumlee is the middle brother of the three, but he is the best rebounder.
Mason does not have a lot of competition for rebounds within the team, with the only two who have the size to rival him are his older brother, Miles, and Josh Hairston.
Mason actually led the team as a junior in rebounds, with 8.4 per game. Mason is probably going to start with Ryan Kelly, and he will get enough playing time to top his rebounding numbers from the 2010-11 season.
Look for Mason to be the biggest of the bigs on the team.
There Will Be a Midseason PG Change
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It looks as though sophomore Tyler Thornton will start the season at point guard. Thornton played behind Irving and Smith last season, but he got his time. Thornton is more of a pass-first point guard than a scorer, and he could be a Kendall Marshall-type player for Duke.
During the middle of the season, I see freshman Quinn Cook taking over.
Coach K will want to sit Cook at first so that he can learn from the coaching staff. Seeing Thornton play in an actual college-level game will help Cook tremendously. Cook will start at the end of the season due to his ability to score and pass.
Both point guard will get around 15-25 minutes during the games, but the change will come in who starts.
The Three Plumlees Will Not Play Together Often
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Many Duke fans (myself included) are excited to have all three Plumlee brothers, but we will not see them all on the court at the same time very often.
Duke will probably still play with three guards and two forwards, but they will run to use their depth.
They will still play a 2-3 offense when they are bigger than their opponents instead of faster, but even when they do this, Ryan Kelly will be more prominent than either Miles or Marshall.
In the 2010-11 season, Coach K did not play Miles and Mason together as often as we would have liked, seeing as they have great chemistry. If he did not play the two brothers together, I don't see him playing all three together.
Marshall Plumlee Will Be a Bust
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Marshall Plumlee has been hyped during the early stages of recruitment, but he has fallen down the list since.
Plumlee was supposed to be the best center coming in, but he has fallen to third.
The reason for this is because, despite being 6'11'', he is quite skinny at 215 lbs. Marshall does not have the bulk to stick with some of the bigger players in college basketball.
Marshall is one of five or six forwards competing for time on the squad, and I would say Krzyzewski has him ranked him behind Ryan Kelly, both of his brothers and perhaps even Josh Hairston since Hairston played last season.
Plumlee will not get a good amount of playing time this season.
Due to his falling down the lists of recruits and his not being able to get enough playing time, I see Marshall being a bit of a bust.
The Blue Devils Will Win 25-Plus Games
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When the season is over, the Blue Devils will still have won more than 25 games.
In the 2010-11 season, they won 30 games, but this team is not quite the same as the one from last year.
In the upcoming season, Duke will be deeper, but they will not have a true go-to guy like they did in Smith last year. Sure, Austin Rivers is going to be great, but teams that rely on freshmen are usually less successful than those who rely on upperclassmen (unless you're John Calipari).
Because Duke is so deep, they will not be able to have their players mesh with each other as well as they did last season.
Having 13 good players sharing time leads to some players not knowing tendencies of one another. Not knowing your teammates well leads to costly mistakes in big games, and we need to hope that Duke does not fall victim to the same factor that can help them: their depth.
Due to the absence of a true star and the fact that they will be playing a different style, I see Duke losing several more games.
Austin Rivers Wins ACC Freshman of the Year
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Rivers is the top recruit in the nation, and I see him winning the Freshman of the Year for the ACC.
In the ACC, James McAdoo will be Rivers' biggest competition.
McAdoo is part of the loaded North Carolina program and he will be vita to their success. What puts Rivers a step higher than McAdoo is the fact that Rivers will need to lead Duke, while McAdoo is surrounded by stars.
McAdoo is a fundamentally sound player, but he is not flashy. This is great for coaches, but I see it hurting him in the Freshman of the Year race.
Duke Goes 0-3 Against UNC
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I truly hope that this is not the case, but I see Duke losing three times to North Carolina.
UNC has five, possibly even six players with NBA talent.
Barnes, Zeller and Henson coming back pushes this team to new heights, and they will be key contributors in UNC's season. UNC is looking unbelievably good, and I don't see Duke matching up with them, even in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The rivals will play twice in the regular season, and I see UNC taking both of those games, although the one in Cameron will be close. The third game will come in the ACC tournament final, when UNC will avenge a loss to Duke from last season.
In terms of their rivalry, it will be a tough season for the Blue Devils, but they will still be a good program.
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