NBA Playoffs 2011: Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks Game 3, If...Then Scenarios

Bulls fans may be approaching Game 3 vs. the Atlanta Hawks with some level of uncertainty.  Can Joe Johnson shoot like Lamar Mundane again?  Can the Bulls overcome Carlos Boozer playing more like Tyrone Hill?  Oh my God, what if D-Rose tweaks the ankle again?

These and more "If...Then" scenarios for Game 3.

If the Bulls Start Slow

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CHICAGO, IL - MAY 04: Head coach Tom Thibodeau of the Chicago Bulls yells instructions to his team against the Atlanta Hawks in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the 2011 NBA Playoffs at the United Center on May 4, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois

Then, they will likely lose Game 3.  This is a crucial game, and the underdogs will say that they came in to Games 1 and 2 to win both games.  In all reality, they will happily take one out of two in almost every case.  They will return home and then attempt to hold serve.  I believe, there is still some doubt as to whether the game they got on the road was an aberration or an indication that they are truly a better team.

The quickest way to get that out of the underdog's heads is to jump on them early, in their building.  Even a 22-21 first quarter is fine when you're the favorite.  The last thing you want to do is feed an uncertain team's confidence level.

The Hawks are largely undisciplined and their focus tends to waver.  Seizing Game 3 will likely lead to a 4-1 series victory for the Bulls.

If Boozer Continues His Less Than Stellar Play

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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 01: Carlos Boozer #5 of the Chicago Bulls reacts on the bench to a foul called on a teammate during a game against the Orlando Magic at the United Center on December 1, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Magic defeated the Bulls 107-78.

Then the Bulls will still probably win this series, but they will not beat their next opponent—which is likely to be the Miami Heat.  The Bulls need "The Big Outburst" to become "The Big Input." 

Taj Gibson-style numbers will best Joe and Jamal, not LeBron and Dwyane.

If Joe Johnson & Jamal Crawford Have Another Great Shooting Performance

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CHICAGO, IL - MAY 02: Josh Smith #5 and Jamal Crawford #11 of the Atlanta Hawks celebrate a win over the Chicago Bulls in Game One of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the 2011 NBA Playoffs at the United Center on May 2, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. The

Then this will spell mounds of trouble for the Bulls.  One reason is, role players always play better at home.  So, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, etc., will have crowd energy and familiarity to assist their fragile games.  This could possibly be too much for the Bulls to overcome.

The Bulls must execute on defense and play with intensity to keep Joe and Jamal from finding their rhythm.

If Derrick Rose Has a Big Night

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INDIANAPOLIS, IN - APRIL 23: Derrick Rose #1 of the Chicago Bulls dunks the ball against the Indiana Pacers in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals in the 2011 NBA Playoffs at Conseco Fieldhouse on April 23, 2011 in Indianapolis, Indiana. The

Then the Hawks will have a hard time beating the Bulls.  This will likely cause a domino effect, starting with foul trouble on Jeff Teague and/or the Hawks' bigs.  Atlanta is not terribly deep and their depth is even more weakened by Kirk Hinrich's injury.

A 13 of 24 shooting performance, with maybe two from behind the arc would be ideal.  Couple this, most importantly, with six to eight trips to the free-throw line, and it opens up the floor.  Now, Korver and Deng must make shots.  Boozer, Noah and Brewer must cut and make themselves available for easy baskets.  This scenario could lead to a blowout.

If Josh Smith Shows Up Offensively

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CHICAGO, IL - MAY 04: Josh Smith #5 of the Atlanta Hawks watches from the bench as teammates take on the Chicago Bulls in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the 2011 NBA Playoffs at the United Center on May 4, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. The

Then it'll be a miracle.  He seemed to partially catch on late in Game 2, but quickly erased that with another brain-exploding 18-footer that was nearly an air ball.  Josh must realize his biggest value to his team in this series is on defense.  He must challenge and block shots.  He needs to slash and finish at the basket on offense.

The Bulls are grateful every time he flings that flat-footed jump shot at the basket.

If Derrick Rose Rolls or Tweaks His Ankle Again

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INDIANAPOLIS, IN - APRIL 23: Derrick Rose #1 of the Chicago Bulls walks off of the court after injuring his ankle against the Indiana Pacers in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals in the 2011 NBA Playoffs at Conseco Fieldhouse on April 23, 2

Then Bulls fans will gasp at the notion.  Depending on when it happened, the Bulls would have a hard time defeating Atlanta.  Although, I don't see it as impossible.  The Bulls are a great defensive team, with or without Rose.  They would have to tighten the screws immensely in this phase of the game. 

In the long run, it would truly be a disaster.  If the Bulls lose Game 3 and Rose is hurt, Thibs has to strongly consider sitting him in Game 4.  I wouldn't want to risk him overcompensating for the ankle and doing damage to some other area of his body.  

Bulls fans must remember, though this team was 62-20, expectations were never that they would win the championship this year.  If you're down 2-1 and your superstar 22-year-old MVP is hurting, sitting him may not be such a bad idea.  It will force others to ultimately step up offensively.  It will also give him the extra time to recuperate.  This is called protecting him from himself.