NFL Draft 2011: 15 Burning Questions Heading into Round 1
With two days still remaining before the start of the NFL Draft 2011, answers are in short supply, but questions are everywhere. Some will be answered when NFL teams make their draft picks, starting Thursday night, but others will have to wait a season or more before we find out the truth.
Read on for 15 questions that teams and fans alike wish they had the answers to right now.
15. Will the Raiders Make an Appearance in Round 1?
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Oakland is the only team without a first-round pick, as their pick went to New England in the Richard Seymour deal. The Raiders have lots of potential free-agent holes to fill, however, so it may behoove them to deal their way back up.
With an appreciable number of teams considering trading down in this draft (whether it’s Dallas at No. 9 or the Jets at No. 30), the Raiders should have some prospects if they seek a trade. If Prince Amukamara or Julio Jones starts to slip down the board, don’t be surprised to see Oakland make a move.
14. Which OT Will Turn out to Be the Best Pick?
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It’s hard to go wrong with the first-round offensive tackle trio of Tyron Smith (USC), Nate Solder (Colorado) and Anthony Castonzo (Boston College). It’s also hard to project which of the three will make the best pro.
Smith appears to be the superior athlete, but he has a year less experience and hasn’t seen game action since bulking up to 307 lbs. Castonzo and Solder are barely, if at all, separated in many rankings and either could prove to be more capable of stepping in and contributing next year.
Given time to mature, Smith may well be the best of the lot. In the immediate term, however, he may take a back seat to the more experienced Castonzo or the bigger Solder.
13. Will the Patriots Keep Their Two First-Rounders?
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New England owns four picks in the first two rounds of the draft, and the Pats have a long history of draft-day deals. With so much ammunition, will New England swing another trade?
The obvious move for the Pats is to package some of their picks to trade up towards the top of Round 1. In a draft booming with defensive talent, Bill Belichick could certainly target one of the elite edge rushers who will be gone if the Pats stay put at No. 17.
The Pats don’t have a lot of urgent needs, so there’s no guarantee that they won’t keep their picks or move them for future considerations. However, if there’s a player they like in the 10-to-12 range, expect them to be on the move on Thursday night.
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12. Which DEs Will Fall out of the First Round?
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Even with a large share of teams looking to add a pass rusher in the first round, the depth of the DE/OLB class this year is such that someone, almost inevitably, will be lost in the shuffle. In turn, some teams are going to get lucky with a second-round selection who would, under normal circumstances, have gone in Round 1.
The likeliest such player is Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward, an experienced and polished DE who lacks the same level of explosiveness as some of his draft classmates. Cal DE Cameron Jordan, a dangerous run-stopper, but not a top-drawer pass rusher, is another plausible candidate to fall to Round 2.
11. Will the Cleveland Browns Get Their Wish?
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Cleveland has apparently narrowed their targets with their No. 6 pick down to just two players and have stated that they’ll look to make a trade if both options are off the board. It’s unknown who the magic players are, but most speculation has focused on WR A.J. Green and DE Robert Quinn.
It’s not at all unreasonable that one or both of those players could still be available at No. 6, so the Browns’ choice would likely be fairly easy. If they’re both gone, however, it will be interesting to see whether they make good on their intention to trade and which team they would involve if they choose that path.
My hunch is that Green will still be available and that Cleveland, desperate for a legitimate No. 1 wideout, will snap him without hesitation.
10. Will Torrey Smith Crack Round 1?
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There’s little question that A.J. Green and Julio Jones will be the top two wide receivers taken, almost certainly in that order. Of the rest of the prospects, the one likeliest to make a first-round appearance is Maryland’s Torrey Smith.
Smith is a flyer (4.37 40 time) but has a reputation for inconsistency. He’s a borderline first-round talent, but with Kansas City and Atlanta both looking hard for a No. 2 wideout, he wouldn’t be an impossible reach late in the first round.
Smith has a lot of potential, but also enough question marks that he’s most likely to slide into the early stages of the second round.
9. What Will Happen to Jimmy Smith?
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Colorado corner Jimmy Smith is a good cover man. He's physical in run support and a high-level athlete. He’s also facing significant questions about his character after multiple drug/alchohol-related offenses in college.
Some analysts have rated Smith ahead of Nebraska’s Prince Amukamara as a CB prospect, but few projections have Smith being picked higher than the late teens. It only takes one team to roll the dice with a prospect like Smith, and if he turns out to be a good pro, several teams will regret passing on him.
Smith could also slip out of the first round entirely, if he can’t convince the right teams that he’ll make it in the pros, but the likeliest outcome is a late first-round selection.
8. Will Anyone Trade into the Top 5?
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With there being a good possibility that the Panthers will take Cam Newton No. 1 overall, it will likely take a top-five pick to land Blaine Gabbert. The list of teams with big-time questions at QB is a long one, but is anyone desperate enough to make a big offer to move up?
For that matter, will anyone make the Panthers a good enough offer to get the top pick and take Newton for themselves?
Trades involving high picks are tough to swing, and the probability is that there won’t be any moves at the top of the draft. But it wouldn’t be that big of a surprise to see someone (Tennessee, Minnesota) take the plunge.
7. What Will the Cardinals Do If Gabbert and Newton Are Gone?
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Picking at No. 5 overall, Arizona has a tough job of planning ahead. If either Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton are available, the probability is that the Cardinals will look to one of them to solve their QB woes.
It’s entirely possible, however, that both QBs will be off the board by the time the Cardinals pick. In that instance, Arizona could look to upgrade their shaky defense, with Nick Fairley, Von Miller or Patrick Peterson potentially available.
Alternatively, the Cards appear to be considering WR A.J. Green as a possible running mate/successor for Larry Fitzgerald. A receiving corps led by Fitzgerald and Green would certainly take some of the pressure off whoever will be playing quarterback.
In the absence of an answer at QB, however, the Cardinals’ best bet is probably to grab the highest-rated defensive player on their board. As exciting as the offense could be with Green, they’ll gain more in the long run by giving Fitzgerald and the offense a defense capable of getting them the ball back.
6. How Far Will Nick Fairley Fall?
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Once upon a time, Nick Fairley was a serious candidate for Carolina’s No. 1 overall pick. Since the combine, however, Fairley’s star has dimmed substantially.
Marcell Dareus and his 28-pound weight advantage took over the top DT spot on most boards. Meanwhile, persistent questions about Fairley’s character (taking plays off, alleged cheap shots on opponents) have chipped away at his stock.
Fairley’s enormous talent may still earn him a top-five selection, as Cincinnati is about the only team in the top five that won’t be seriously considering taking a DT. On the other hand, if he gets past the Titans (who are apparently down on him) at No. 8, he could suffer a Brady Quinn-like free fall to the late stages of the first round.
5. Who Will Take a Chance on Robert Quinn?
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North Carolina DE Robert Quinn has one of the biggest upsides in the draft, but he also has some of the biggest question marks surrounding his draft stock. He showed impressive potential as a pass rusher in college, but he was suspended for the entire 2010 season due to his acceptance of improper benefits.
As much as the questions about his character matter, equally daunting for teams looking at Quinn will be gauging the effects of his season-long layoff. He wasn’t a totally polished DE, even before the suspension, and no one knows how the year away from game action will affect his development.
On talent alone, Quinn could be a top-five selection, but the more likely scenario sees him slipping a few picks down, possibly to Houston (No. 11) or Minnesota (No. 12).
4. How Good Can Patrick Peterson Be?
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Many experts rank Patrick Peterson as the best player in this draft class at any position. But how much is a top-level cornerback worth?
The list of Hall of Fame corners who didn’t go in the top 10 is a long one. Teams have traditionally been reluctant to spend such a high pick on a position that rarely takes over a game.
Still, Peterson has a chance to be one of the few exceptions and he projects as an elite player whether he stays at corner or—as some have suggested—has to shift to safety, because his 220-lb frame could keep him from staying with quicker NFL wideouts.
Add in Peterson’s punt-returning skills, and it would be a shock to see him fall any farther than San Francisco at No. 7 overall.
3. How Bad Is Da’Quan Bowers’ Knee?
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Once considered to be in the running for the top pick, Da’Quan Bowers has plummeted down draft boards due to rumors about his surgically-repaired right knee.
Questions abound regarding how well his knee is healing after arthroscopic surgery in January, as well as whether the surgery did or didn’t reveal indications of possible long-term damage.
Bowers led the nation with 15.5 sacks last season, so his credentials as a pass rusher aren’t in dispute. It appears he’s convinced teams that he will be ready to play next season, but are teams convinced enough to make him a top-10 pick?
Some projections have Bowers slipping all the way to the high teens, possibly going to the Jaguars at No. 16, but it seems more plausible that some team in the top 10 will take a chance on him. If healthy, he’s too good a pass rusher to ignore.
2. How Early Will the Third QB Come off the Board?
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Regardless of the details, it’s pretty clear that Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert will be taken in the top five-to-top 10 selections. What remains a major mystery is the fate in store for the other QBs in the draft.
Jake Locker, Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton head up the next group of signal callers likely to be drafted, but it’s not clear whether most of them will be first or second rounders.
Some analysts think the Redskins are high enough on Locker to take him at No. 10 overall, while others have him falling all the way to his hometown Seahawks at No. 25. If Locker goes high, it could start a trend of QBs going in the mid-to-late first round, but if he drops, he might be the last QB of the round.
My bet is that Washington or Minnesota will trade down to somewhere in the high teens or early 20s and start the run on QBs at that point, most likely with Locker.
1. Is Cam Newton the Real Deal?
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Cam Newton, Auburn’s Heisman-winning dual-threat QB, enters the draft in much the same position that Vince Young did five years ago. After carrying his team to a national title, he faces questions about how well he can adjust to an NFL offense and whether his game will translate.
Young, of course, showed flashes of brilliance with Tennessee before off-field issues derailed him. Will Newton play like the Young who got benched and run out of Tennessee, the one who won six-straight games as a rookie or something different altogether?
High-profile QBs are about as bad a risk as you can get in the NFL Draft, but the few who pan out make the risk worth taking. Newton would be worth the No. 1 pick if he lives up to his potential, but the odds say he’s more likely to struggle than thrive in the NFL.
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