NFL Draft 2011: Top Quarterbacks
It's no secret that this year's NFL draft pool of quarterbacks is not exactly the quarterback class of 1983, when John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino all entered the NFL. With little buzz surrounding many of the quarterbacks and little optimism about each having the ability to become a true franchise quarterback, all eyes are looking toward the Class of 2012, which will be highlighted by Stanford's Andrew Luck.
Luck passed on a chance to go pro this season at a time when he would have been the clear top quarterback, if not top pick, in the draft. He is making the same decision another Pac-10 quarterback, Washington's Jake Locker, made a year ago.
Will Luck's decision end up being the right one? That is a question for the future. Locker's much-hyped season did not quite pan out the way it was expected to at Washington, while Auburn's Cam Newton took the nation by storm with his dazzling ability to make plays for the Tigers. But is Newton a legitimate pro quarterback?
That is the question that the Carolina Panthers will have to debate internally between now and next Thursday, when the draft officially kicks off in New York City.
Here is one college football writer's ranking of the top 10 quarterbacks in this year's NFL draft.
Kevin McGuire is the national college football writer for Examiner.com. Follow his college football discussion on Twitter @CFBExaminer.
1. Cam Newton, Auburn
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Auburn's Cam Newton has risen to the top of many mock drafts over the past week or so and it is easy to see why. No quarterback in the NFL draft this year is the kind of physical specimen that Newton is. And this is not just another JaMarcus Russell because Newton can throw the ball and run with the football when needed. The best part about Newton is he seems to have a level head on his shoulders that is capable of handling the media attention.
Just witness how Newton responded to the media last season as controversy off the field followed him on a weekly basis in one of the toughest conferences in the country. Did it bother Newton when his team was down against rival Alabama on the road? Nope. Newton kept his cool and overcame a sluggish start to rally Auburn to a win in the Iron Bowl at a time when the media attention was at its height.
Newton's style will need to take on some adjustments before he is ready to be a pro quarterback but he has too many potential positives to ignore. His strength in his arms and legs makes him a legitimate dual-threat option, and not just in a wildcat-style offense.
Projected Round: 1, top five
Most similar to...
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Roethlisberger is not the greatest passer in the league, but his physical frame and strength makes him a tough player to bring down. Big Ben can shed a tackle and find an open receiver downfield, making a big play when his team most needs it. Based solely on one season, you could say the same thing about Newton.
2. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
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Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert may be the most unheralded, top-rated quarterback prospect the NFL draft has seen in some time. Gabbert flew under the radar of most NFL fans and scouts for a long time until the Tigers upended then-top-ranked Oklahoma. At that point Gabbert's draft stock soared even after losing the following week at Nebraska in their final Big 12 conference matchup.
Gabbert finished in the middle of the Big 12 in just about every passing category, but he has done enough to impress NFL draft analysts, who happen to love his arm velocity and quick release. His decision-making is above average and in what is being regarded as a down year for quarterbacks in the NFL draft, Gabbert may turn out to have made a bold decision to come out a year early rather than play another season in college.
Gabbert may have benefited from another year at Missouri to improve his overall skills, but with this being a mediocre talent pool in the NFL draft, Gabbert can take advantage and sign a contract that would likely be bigger than one he would possibly sign a year from now.
Projected Round: 1, top five
Most similar to...
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
When watching Gabbert play, I can't help but think of the next Tony Romo. Like Gabbert, there is nothing too fancy or impressive about Romo, but he has a knack for putting up respectable numbers in the system he is in. His arm isn't the best, nor is his ability to run with the football. He is a safe quarterback who dumps the ball to a tight end or slant receiver if nothing is open downfield, much like Gabbert.
Unlike Romo however, Gabbert will be drafted and he will be gone fairly early.
3. Ryan Mallet, Arkansas
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Arkansas Razorback quarterback Ryan Mallett flourished under head coach Bobby Petrino's pass-happy offensive game plan that made Brian Brohm a star at Louisville. Time will tell if Mallett was a product of Petrino's system or if he is destined for greater success than Brohm, a former second-round draft pick by the Buffalo Bills, who has thrown zero touchdowns and five interceptions in his brief NFL career and is currently a backup to Ryan Fitzpatrick.
There is no question that Mallett has one of the strongest arms in the NFL draft, but character issues have caused his draft stock to slip a bit in recent months. More importantly, Mallett's accuracy must improve if he is to be one of the guys looking to become a franchise quarterback in the NFL.
If Mallet drops past the 15th pick in the draft (Miami), then Mallett could realistically fall into the second round, which would give a team like Buffalo, Cincinnati or Arizona a possible opportunity to pick up a quarterback early in the second round.
Projected Round: 1-2
Most similar to...
Drew Bledsoe, retired
A gifted passer, but could be used as a model for the Statue of Liberty with mobility, Mallett most reminds me of former NFL quarterback Drew Bledsoe. His pass-first, pass-second frame of mind may end up costing him in the NFL and he will be prone to be sacked unless he can get rid of the football earlier. Bledsoe threw 251 career touchdowns but was intercepted nearly as often, with 206 picks. Mallett finished his collegiate career with 24 interceptions in three seasons, with half of those coming last season.
4. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada
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Odds are most football fans have not had a chance to watch Nevada's Colin Kaepernick on the field yet. So much can be expected form a guy who plays in the WAC, and it is fair to question his ability after playing against a level of competition that is perceived to be easier than most. But before you go scoffing at the idea of Kaepernick as a franchise quarterback, take a look at what he has to offer (and I'm not saying he is a franchise-type QB).
He may be a tad underweight, which would make him more vulnerable when he gets hit by NFL defensive stars, but his ability to move with the football makes him worth checking out. Kaepernick may be the kind of player you would see used in a wildcat-style offense because he has the ability to throw the football and take off and run with it. The wildcat may be a good fit for him because he may not be the kind of guy who can be depended on to lead a pro-style offense on an every-down basis.
He needs room to grow wherever he ends up because his tendencies hurt him. He will lock on to one receiver too often and his arm strength is not the best.
Projected Round: 2-3
Most similar to...
Randall Cunningham, retired
When thinking about what kind of quarterback Kaepernick reminds me of, former Philadelphia Eagles scrambler Randall Cunningham jumps to mind. Tall, athletic and can make a defense look silly if he starts to run. He may not have Cunningham's speed but his long legs give him a nice long stride when he gets moving. He can also launch the football while running around, much like Cunningham could, on a whim.
5. Christian Ponder, Florida State
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Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder is one of the more seasoned players behind center in this year's NFL Draft, yet he leaves something to be desired in terms of physical ability, mostly in his arm. Nobody questions Ponder's leadership abilities and few will argue his in-game mentality being second to none when he is on the field.
What sets Ponder apart from most of the quarterbacks in this year's draft pool is his experience directly behind center, as opposed to out of the shotgun. He can read defenses with the best of them at this stage and he has good accuracy because he will look for multiple receivers before making a pass.
Wherever he lands, Ponder will be a bit of a project but his intelligence and work ethic will make him worth the time to develop if the right team comes calling.
Projected Round: 2-3
Most similar to...
Kurt Warner, retired
Kurt Warner had most of his success in the NFL because of his ball awareness and intelligence. Warner was not known as a quarterback who could air it out downfield with any regularity and Ponder is similar in ability. Ponder benefits from having been a three year starter at Florida State, but his medical history may shy some teams away from picking him up with an early pick. Look for Ponder to go in the third round, but if the right team has a need in the second round do not be surprised to see them take a chance on Ponder.
6. Andy Dalton, TCU
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TCU's Andy Dalton has come a long way in his four seasons as a starting quarterback. Sine throwing for ten touchdowns and being intercepted 11 times in his first season as the Horned Frogs starter, Dalton threw 71 touchdowns and just 19 interceptions while leading TCU to a pair of BCS berths and a win in the Rose Bowl to go along with back-to-back Mountain West championships. In the past two seasons alone Dalton led the Horned Frogs to a record of 25-1 and TCU was 44-8 since Dalton took over behind center.
While his winning record speaks volumes it must be said that a number of those wins came against what many would call inferior opposition, but there are a number of solid victories in the mix, including last season's Rose Bowl victory against Wisconsin, and regular season wins against a Top 25 Oregon State and top ten Utah team in 2010 and road victories at Clemson and BYU in 2009.
Dalton is not known particularly for his arm strength but his underrated mobility allows him to create a little more time to find an open receiver to keep a drive moving forward. His football IQ may make up for some of his less superior physical attributes, but under the right head coach or offensive coordinator and placed in the right kind of system Dalton could have the ability to manage an offense to a number of wins in the NFL.
This college football writer may be higher on Dalton than most, but I expect a decent future out of Dalton in the NFL once he gets to play some games and finds the right situation and has the right supporting cast.
Projected Round: 3-4
Most similar to...
Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns
Like Dalton, Colt McCoy was not known for a particularly strong arm but his ability to get away from pressure allowed him to keep plays, and drives, alive. McCoy would not beat any defense with a deep pass down the sidelines but with shorter, smarter passes in mid-range. His professional career is just getting started but McCoy has given fans in Cleveland a glimpse of optimism moving forward. Dalton could follow a similar path but will likely be placed in a situation where he will get to be educated behind a current starting quarterback for a season or two before seeing the field.
7. Jake Locker, Washington
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There was a time when Washington's Jake Locker was the most hyped quarterback in the game, and a sure top draft pick. But Locker opted to play one final season at Washington rather than possibly be selected by the Detroit Lions (who picked Nebraska defensive end Ndamukong Suh). Locker was billed as a Heisman candidate and taken on a media tour on the east coast to build the hype.
The the games started and things quickly went down hill.
Locker finished the 2010 season with a 55.4 completion percentage and 2,265 yards passing and 17 touchdowns. Each of those passing statistics took a dip from the 2009 season, when Locker started becoming more of a household name following a regular season victory against highly ranked USC. Despite throwing 20 interceptions in the past two seasons and never completing more than 59& of his passes, Locker has been seen as a good pro prospect, and he will likely be drafted earlier than guys like Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder.
If Locker can get by his inconsistency as a passer then there are some things to like about him. He has the kind of arm that can succeed in the NFL and he can get out of pressure situations with some mobility, and his touch on the ball is very good. But if you can't throw accurate passes it does not matter how beautiful a spiral a deep pass has down field, and that will be Locker's biggest deterrent.
Projected Round: 2
Most similar to...
Jake Delhomme, Cleveland Browns
Like Locker, Jake Delhomme has some good qualities as a quarterback but his inaccuracy has proven to be his biggest flaw behind center. He has thrown 125 career touchdowns but has also been intercepted 101 times in his career. Delhomme can win a team some games but the chances that he is responsible for costing a team a game is just as likely when he is on the field. Having played for 13 seasons Delhomme is currently a back-up quarterback and has seen his starting days go by him. Locker may be destined for a similar career in front of him.
8. Pat Devlin, Delaware
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Will Pat Devlin become the next Joe Flacco?
Flacco decided to transfer from Pittsburgh to Delaware in search of increased playing time and it ended up making him one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL Draft a few years ago. Devlin, taking a page form Flacco's play book, transferred from Penn State after being set in a backup role behind Daryll Clark and started to make a name for himself at Delaware.
What do scouts like about Devlin? His arm and accuracy. Most will point to his accuracy first when reviewing Devlin but his arm strength, when needed, can prove to be a valuable asset. Devlin completed 68% of his passes in 2010 and led the Blue Hens on a championship run, though it ended just shy of a national championship victory. Few quarterbacks in the draft pool will be as ready as Devlin comes with his mechanics, although it may take a little bit of time to get him more adjusted to a pro-style offense. His foot work is above average and he can even be mobile if needed.
There is a question with how well Devlin will adjust to the speed of the pro game after playing the past two seasons in the FCS with Delaware, and he will have to learn to get rid of the ball faster under a faster-paced level of play in the pros.
Projected Round: 5
Most similar to...
Chad Pennington's accuracy, Miami Dolphins
Joe Flacco's arm, Baltimore Ravens
There was no quarterback I had a tougher time comparing to an NFL player at the same position than Devlin so I cheated and took two aspects from different players to form a Devlin comparison. Take Chad Pennington's accuracy and Joe Flacco's arm and I think you have Devlin.
Devlin is smaller than Flacco and, putting the Delaware story aside, both have very strong arms and can wing the ball down field. Pennington on the other hand is more known for his accuracy and not his arm strength, and Devlin is one of the more accurate passers in this year's NFL Draft pool. Put Flacco's arm on Pennington's frame and use his accuracy and you have Devlin.
9. Greg McElroy, Alabama
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Alabama's Greg McElroy constantly gets overlooked when discussing college quarterbacks and it baffles me why. He has had just one season in which he completed fewer than 70% of his passes and in that one season he led the Crimson Tide to a national championship victory with a perfect record. Sure, McElroy was surrounded by great talent on offense (and defense) but McElroy found a way to be the leader of a team full of stars and lead the Tide to victory even when things looked bleak.
McElroy does not have the greatest skill set compared to he quarterbacks in the draft but he has plenty of upside playing in his favor in the NFL. His accuracy is a great starting point but scouts have a concern about his arm strength at the pro level. McElroy is not known to throw a great deep ball and is more likely to throw an accurate pass to an open receiver at id range after checking out every possible receiver on the field. Some say it is a lack of arm strength, but I say it is a wealth of football instincts that has gotten McElroy to where he is today.
McElroy is not the most mobile quarterback so there is a concern that he will take some hits and be vulnerable in the pocket and he is still recovering from a broken bone in his throwing hand suffered during the Senior Bowl. Once healed though McElroy could be worth taking in a late round and taking the time to develop in a good offensive system.
Projected Round: 6-7
Most similar to...
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Does Brady have the best arm, or the most football talent? Probably not, but his football IQ more than makes up for anything. Nobody can argue that Brady is not one of the top competitors in the NFL and he is a proven winner. That's exactly what I see in McElroy at the college level and I'm curious if he can duplicate that pattern in the pros. McElroy is clearly not the most gifted passer in college football but he has proven that he knows how to win and produces wins and he is accurate.
10. Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech
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Virginia Tech's Tyrod Taylor got better each season he played at Virginia Tech and leaves the Hokies as the ACC's top player in 2010. There may not be a quarterback as athletic in this year;s draft as Taylor, who put on a good showing at the NFL Scouting Combine to follow up a great performance in the East West Shrine Game. Taylor posted the fastest 40-yard dash time among quarterbacks (4.51 seconds) and tied for the best broad jump (10' 6") with Cam Newton (Auburn) and Joshua Portis (California, Pennsylvania).
His display at the combine and East West Shrine Game followed up what was a very good 2010 season even if it did get off to a bumpy start for the Hokies.With Virginia Tech starting the year 0-2 it is easy to forget that Taylor was 15-for-22 for 186 yards, two touchdowns and did not throw an interception in a season opening loss to Boise State. He was only intercepted five times in 2010 and never threw more than one pick in a game in 2010.
Taylor is a bit on the shorter side of quarterbacks, but is the same height as guys like Mike Vick and the fact that he played in a spread offense will alarm some NFL franchises, but should not hinder him more than most of the other quarterbacks in the draft who also played in a spread style offense.
Projected Round: 5-6
Most similar to...
Mike Vick, Philadelphia Eagles
It's easy to think of Michael Vick when watching Taylor, and it's not just because of the Virginia Tech uniform. Even Hokies head coach Frank Beamer saw the likeness, saying before the 2010 season "I feel the same way with him out there as I did when Michael Vick was out there," in the Idaho Statesman leading up to a game against Boise State. "The next play could be a big play. Any play has a chance of going a long ways."
Taylor is almost an exact clone of Vick in terms of physical stature, measuring the same height and just about weighing in with the same weight. Both players use speed to their advantage and have an underrated ability to throw the football. Like Vick, Taylor is not known for his passing accuracy and has a tendency to lock in on one receiver before throwing. Needs proper coaching to develop a bit but would be a great fit for a team utilizing the wildcat system.
Notable Others
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The best of the rest...
Ricky Stanzi, Iowa - Iowa's Ricky Stanzi has some people thinking he can be a decent passer in the NFL, but his own accuracy issues will plague him moving forward. I question his stats a bit and think they may be a bit misleading when being evaluated as an NFL prospect.
Taylor Potts, Texas Tech - Is Taylor Potts the latest product of a pass-heavy Texas Tech system? Not too many Texas Tech quarterbacks have gone on to have successful NFL careers and I'm not ready to say Potts will be the exception to the rule. Talented arm, but the NFL is vastly different than Texas Tech.
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin - I remain a bit unsure what to make of Tolzien. In college he played behind one of the better offensive lines in college football so he had plenty of time to work with but never did anything to really impress on the field. Accurate? Yes. The main reason for winning? Not necessarily.
Josh Portis, California, PA - Has the potential to be a nice pickup for a team with a late round draft pick. Had a very impressive NFL Scouting Combine
T.J. Yates, North Carolina - Late bloomer at North Carolina and has made strides at the position and has the ability to make good reads. Needs to improve on decision-making moving forward.
Adam Weber, Minnesota - Smart football player with a pretty decent arm, but not much is being expected of him at the next level. Career back-up at best it would seem for the Golden Gopher.
Nathan Enderle, Idaho - Big quarterback who scouts seem to really like but lacks a very strong arm, which should hold him back a bit. Not particularly accurate but has a good football intelligence and shows signs that he can be worked with.
Kevin McGuire is the national college football writer for Examiner.com. Follow his college football discussion on Twitter @CFBExaminer.
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