2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Detroit Lions' Projections
Another week, another Detroit Lions mock draft.
Yes, that means you’ll be getting one of these from me every week.
Though you may tire of mock drafts, consider it an opportunity to become better acquainted with more draft prospects down the board.
After all, the draft is no fun if you only know the top five players on the board. Believe me, I’ve been there.
And you can be sure you’ll learn plenty each week from my mock drafts, given the rules I’ve set in place for myself.
Those rules are as follows:
1. No repeating picks. If you’ve heard my analysis on a player once, you don’t need it again. If that means I have to get creative with my selections, so be it.
2. No trades. I actually think the Lions will trade down somewhere, but it’s just silly to assume to know when, where and with whom.
3. If there is any reasonable chance a player is a available at a particular Lions pick, I will assume he is available. That’s the only way I can reasonably simulate the Lions braintrust’s “best player available” strategy. For them to draft the BPA means a talented player is going to have to fall from somewhere.
With that little disclaimer out of the way, here’s version two of my Detroit Lions 2011 mock draft.
Round 1, 13th Overall Pick: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
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There is buzz recently about the Lions getting a shot at Da’Quan Bowers out of Clemson. Bowers’ stock is in a freefall after a disastrous pro day amid injury concerns.
Bowers once projected to the top spot in the draft, but if his injuries prove to be a major issue, he’s an incredibly risky pick.
Aldon Smith is also a gamble, but he’s a controlled risk. Where Bowers’ risk lies with the health of his right knee, Smith’s lies with his development.
I firmly believe that Smith would have been a contender for top overall pick had he stayed in school for another year or two. Even as a redshirt sophomore, he’s looking at a likely top 15 grade.
Smith shows incredible talent in getting to the quarterback from the defensive end position, and he’s no slouch against the run.
That being said, his technique is raw, he needs to add bulk, and his body doesn’t seem to have fully grown into its frame yet.
Some of that will come naturally with time and experience, which is why his stock would have increased exponentially had he stayed at Missouri for his junior year.
But as for the stuff that won’t, think back to last offseason. Ndamukong Suh was drafted by the Lions second overall, and as soon as he was allowed to make contact, Kyle Vanden Bosch took the young lineman under his wing.
Granted, Suh was a more complete prospect out of college than Smith will be this year. But considering that Smith’s greatest concerns are technique and strength, doesn’t it seem like Kyle “5 a.m. lift, be there” Vanden Bosch could do some good with the kid?
Round 2, 44th Overall Pick: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
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Boy, I've done a good deal of flip-flopping on Akeem Ayers.
At one point, I liked Ayers at 13. Then I included him in a list of players the Lions should not draft. Now he's in my mock draft, albeit at a different point.
You don’t have to tell me the second round is a huge drop for Ayers, who was once a trendy pick to the Lions in the first round.
Most mocks right now have Ayers somewhere in the bottom of the first round, but draft physics teaches us that prospects in a free fall tend to stay in a free fall.
It may seem like his stock has stabilized, but those are usually the ones you see fall another 15 spots on draft day.
If that happens to Ayers, the Lions will gladly take him in the second.
Concerns about his effort and motor are there, for sure, but his athletic ability is unquestionable, and he’s easily the best player available filling the biggest need on the team in this slot.
The Lions are developing a reputation as a hard-nosed, blue-collar team that values hard work and toughness over all else. If Ayers buys into that mentality (another job for Vanden Bosch), then his athleticism makes him the steal of the draft here in the second.
Round 3, 75th Overall Pick: Marcus Cannon, OG/OT, TCU
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If the Lions can get Marcus Cannon in the third round, he makes a ton of sense for them.
For starters, he weighs a ton.
No, get those images of Aaron Gibson out of your head. It’s not like that. Cannon has a massive 6′5″, 355-pound frame, and yes, he could stand to lose about 20 of those pounds.
But what he’s able to do with that big body is what makes him an exciting prospect for the Lions.
Cannon is what John Madden might refer to as “a big ol’ people-mover.” What Cannon does is he goes out and he pushes defenders out of the way. He’s big, he’s strong, he plays with leverage and he will be the guy to get behind in a short-yardage situation.
If the Lions draft him, he could plug in and immediately be the best run-blocker on the line. He can play either right guard or right tackle, which makes him both a replacement for Stephen Peterman and insurance for Gosder Cherilus’ microfracture surgery (though his size makes him a much better fit on the inside).
Because he plays a little over his ideal weight, Cannon is a little slow getting into his pass set, and doesn’t square up very well blocking at the second level.
But those are things that can be worked on over time to make him a more complete player. In the meantime, adding Cannon in 2011 would do more to improve the Lions’ running game than the addition of any running back.
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Round 4, 107th Overall Pick: Brandon Burton, CB, Utah
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Oh no! Why would I wait until the fourth round to address the Lions’ abysmal secondary? This is a terrible mock!
There, I said it for you, saved you a comment.
You guys remember we haven’t yet had free agency this year, right? And that drafts rarely go in order of “highest need = highest pick?”
Good. Now read this excerpt about Brandon Burton from NFL.com’s draft profiles.
“Burton could become a great starting corner for a team with a press-heavy scheme.”
Anybody know a team that blitzes a lot and needs a corner with good size that can jam a receiver at the line of scrimmage? Because that team would really be getting a nice fourth-round pick with size, speed and demonstrable ball skills.
Granted, Burton is far from the best corner prospect in the draft. He needs lots of work on his tackling, and may struggle out of the gate against the league’s best receivers. But everyone does, that’s why they’re the best, and that’s why Burton is in the fourth round. But that’s no reason to knock the kid.
By the way, anyone remember where Brent Grimes, the starting NFC cornerback in this year’s Pro Bowl, was drafted?
Oh, he wasn’t drafted in 2006, and was instead signed as a rookie free agent? Because most of the time cornerbacks are notoriously difficult to project to the NFL level, regardless of what round they go in?
Right. Just checking.
Round 5, 154th Overall Pick: Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State
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Well, I think I’ve gotten all that defensive sarcasm out of my system. On to the next round.
Here in the fifth, the Lions bring in Austin Pettis as some competition for Derrick Williams.
I don’t think the Lions are prepared to throw in the towel on Williams just yet, but they will definitely be looking for someone to give him a run this year. If Pettis comes in and outworks the former third-round pick, it could be the end of the road for him. If he doesn’t, it means Williams was pushed into getting his act together.
Pettis is already a fierce competitor, so he fits the bill nicely.
What makes this proposed camp battle intriguing is the fact that Pettis and Williams are polar opposites as players.
Williams is a 5′ 11″ speedster who relies on his agility to create separation from defenders. He is often successful in doing that, only to have passes bounce off his apparently wooden hands.
Pettis is a 6′ 2″ possession man with average speed who rarely gets separation from defenders. He can beat defenders trying to jam him at the line of scrimmage and find the soft spots in zone coverage, but is never truly open in man. And that rarely matters, because he catches everything regardless of coverage or ball location.
Pettis is a master of using his body to shield defenders off the ball, and might have the softest hands of any receiver in the latter half of the draft. He’s not flashy, but he can be effective. It’s hard to ask for more than that in the fifth round.
Round 7, 205th Overall Pick: Greg Lloyd, ILB, Connecticut
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The son of the former All-Pro by the same name (though their relationship at this point is allegedly non-existent), Lloyd’s best-case scenario is probably to become a two-down linebacker with some pop.
Lloyd is a big bruiser of a linebacker whose pass coverage skills are effectively nil, and unless he improves that aspect of his game considerably, he’s looking at a career as a situational player and special teamer.
But the Lions could use his talents as a powerful short-yardage run-stopper with a penchant for separating ball from carrier.
Considering the Lions have the comparatively diminutive DeAndre Levy installed at middle linebacker, Lloyd could become a very interesting situational replacement for goal line situations.
If he develops his game, he could even take over the middle linebacker position and move Levy back to the outside.
Barring that, he could always contribute on special teams.
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