NFL Football Betting Picks & Odds for Sunday, October 5th 2008

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Chicago Bears -3.5 (-110) NFL Betting Odds - Sunday, October 5th ‘08 1:00p
Now we normally shy away from seemingly obvious selections like the Chicago Bears being favored over the lowly Detroit Lions by just over a field goal, but we feel that in this case, the line is being kept down artificially because some people actually think the Lions will suddenly improve with the firing of general manager Matt Millen! Well, we feel that Vince Lombardi would have a difficult time getting something out of this Detroit team right now if he came back from the grave, so we will cast our paranoia aside and accept this bargain line for just what it is. The Lions have not even been competitive in their fist three games, as all those contests were over at halftime. Detroit has had a propensity of trying to establish the run early to set up the pass later, That is all well and good except for the fact that the Lions have mediocre at best running backs and their offensive line has been horrible. So perhaps their strategy this week will be to throw the ball straight from the get-go? Well the problem there is that the Bears put great pressure on the quarterback and they allow only 5.5 yards per passing attempt. The Chicago defensive number would only get better if Detroit became a one-dimensional passing team. Now can the Detroit defense keep them in this game? Well, the Lions are allowing a whopping 430.3 total yards per game, and they are allowing an incredulous 5.6 yards per rush and 9.0 yards per pass attempt. Not to mention that they allow the most points in the NFL at 37.7 points per game, so the answer to the question would be no. We feel that only the Bears conservatism could keep this game remotely close, but rookie running back Matt Forte has run very well vs. much better defenses already, and that should et up some nice play-action opportunities for Kyle Orton later. Remember too that the Bear could very easily be 4-0 after their thrilling win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week instead of 2-2, and they should roll to an easy win here. NFL Free Pick: Bears -3.5 (-110) - Courtesy of LT Profits

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 (-110) - Sunday, October 5th ‘08 4:05p
The Denver Broncos were shocked by the lowly Kansas City Chiefs last week while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing excellent football at 3-1 right now. Well yes, the Broncos are 3-1 also, but that is where the similarities end. The Broncos could have easily lost both of their home games thus far, so they more closely resemble a tram that is 1-3 than 3-1. The problem for Denver has been a defense that has been torched for 29.2 points and 411.2 total yards per game. In their two home wins so far, they survived thanks to a terrible call by the referee vs. the San Diego Chargers and by a missed field goal in the closing seconds by the New Orleans Saints, winning those contests by a combined three points! Suddenly, losing to the Chiefs does not look that surprising. Now the Buccaneers can be 4-0 right now, as they lost 24-20 in the final minutes to the Saints on opening week before their current three-game winning streak. The key to their success has been the running of Earnest Graham, as the Bucs are averaging 133.8 rushing yards per game on a nice 5.0 yards per carry. Look for Graham to have success on the ground again vs. a Denver run defense that is allowing 132.8 rushing yards per game on a terrible 5.0 yards per rush, keying this mild upset. NFL Free Pick: Buccaneers +3 (-110) - Courtesy of LT Profits

Miami Dolphins +7.0 - Sun Oct 5 ‘08 1:00p
The Miami Dolphins have had an extra week of rest since upsetting and pounding the New England Patriots 30-13 back on Sept 21. The Fins , well prepared and fresh, will now take on a San Diego team that exerted a great deal of energy in a come back victory against their long time rivals the Oakland Raiders last week. I’m betting the Chargers after that above mentioned effort, and the difficulties associated with adjusting to a new time zone, will not be as lethal as usual, especially in the heat and humidity of south Florida. Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins behind a load of exotic offensive options with RB Ronnie Brown as the catalyst to give the Chargers inconsistent offense all they can handle in this spot on their way to what could easily be another upset win, against a franchise they have beaten 6 straight times. Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover -Projected score: Miami 24 San Diego 21 - Courtesy of Alex Smart

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos o46.0 (-110) - Sun Oct 5 ‘08 4:05p
Today the Denver Broncos will try to overcome last week’s road loss to the Chiefs by matching up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mile High Stadium. Although the Bucs are traditionally known for their defense, we are going to go with the over 46 in this AFC/NFC battle. Last week the Broncos failed to score at least 33 points for the first time in 2008. Despite putting just 19 on the board at Arrowhead Stadium, Denver is still averaging 33 points per game this year. The only reason Jay Cutler and company did not crest the 30 point mark in KC was due to an opportunistic Chiefs defense which created four turnovers. Still, the Broncos piled up 446 yards of offense while possessing the ball a little over 26 minutes. The Buccaneers are still known for their defensive prowess but they have some weapons on offense and Jon Gruden knows how to use them. Tampa Bay is averaging over 25 points per game this season and they have shown an ability to move the ball both with the pass and the run. Last Sunday against Green Bay, the Bucs put up almost 350 yards of offense despite turning the ball over three times. Denver has proven that they can move the ball on anyone. Granted, they have not exactly faced a murder’s row of defensive units, but their numbers are jaw dropping nonetheless. The Bucs will be the toughest defense that Denver’s faced thus far, but their biggest weakness is the Broncos biggest strength (passing game). Denver will get its share, and so will Tampa. The yardage Denver’s porous defense has given up is just as staggering as their offensive production. The Broncos are yielding over 400 yards per game and Brian Griese should have little trouble moving the offense down the field. Free Pick: Take the OVER 46 -110 - Courtesy of Matt Foust