2011 NFL Fantasy: 10 Rookies Who Could Make a Splash

For those of you who have had your fill of scouts, combines, pro days, predictions and mock drafts, let me introduce to you an alternative.

It’s called "Wet Behind the Ears", an in-depth look at 10 rookies, who may be as important to fantasy football as they are to the real NFL.

Since late February, each one of them has been pushed, poked, prodded and put through the proverbial ringer of what is known as the NFL draft process.

These young athletes are closing in on a memorable weekend, when they will learn their fate and don the caps and jerseys of their new teams.

But they will also need to learn how important they can be to fantasy teams, whose owners can only hope to find a star in the making. Some of them have a lot of growing up to do, while others seem mature beyond their years.

Which ones will make an immediate impact? And which ones will need some time? You be the judge and feel free to state your opinion, because any one of these rookies could be yours, when your fantasy team is on the clock.

WEEK ONE - THE TOP 10 (BEST BETS):

1. GEORGIA WR A.J. GREEN

When A.J. Green showed up at the NFL combine in Indianapolis, he promptly got out-shined by the next best receiver in this year's draft. But that did not bother the Bulldogs' superstar. He acknowledges that Alabama's Julio Jones is a unique talent and will likely be a star in the league for the next decade.

But then Green had one of the strangest pro days in recent memory. First, he refused to re-run the 40-yard dash and let his 4.5 second combine time stand. Then he proceeded with a 30-minute scripted session in front of nobody in particular.

Well, at least it seemed that way. There were professional scouts that made the trip to Athens, Ga., but because of an obscure NFL lockout rule, they were unable to watch Green perform on the gridiron. Instead, scouts viewed the workout on televisions inside the Bulldogs' practice complex.

Nevertheless, Green will be off the board early in the first round on April 28 and should be considered the top rookie selection off fantasy draft boards in August.

With sub-4.4 speed, Green can get up field in a hurry, but scouts marvel more about his route running skills and his ability to out-leap opponents in the end zone.

Comparisons to current Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson make Green all the more appealing for fantasy owners, especially in dynasty leagues where long-term production is essential.

Of course, rookie receivers are always overrated in the real NFL. But in fantasy, an athlete of Green's stature can stand out as a No. 3 receiver with upside. Last year, Dallas' Dez Bryant proved to be what Green could be on a week-to-week basis.

Supremely talented, Bryant simply busted through, ran past or out-muscled defenders on his way to the end zone on a regular basis. Green's skills are similar, so look for him to explode upon the fantasy scene and contribute immediately in touchdown-only leagues.

Possible Destinations: Carolina, Cincinnati or Cleveland

2011 Stat Prediction: 70 Rec, 1,125 Yds, 8 TDs

Every fantasy owner has their eyes peeled for the next great running back to grab hold of the NFL spotlight. Unfortunately, it is hard to predict how certain backs will be used in certain systems and how quickly they will be able to adapt to the pro game.

There have been rumors circulating about a lack of urgency for teams this year when it comes to the running back position.

Most teams believe they can wait to get a quality back in the mid-rounds. And with the quantity and depth of defensive players and quarterbacks this year, there is plenty of evidence to support this.

2. ALABAMA RB MARK INGRAM

Alabama's Mark Ingram may be the only back to hear his name announced in the first round. A big, powerful runner with great vision and soft hands, Ingram could be a three-down back for a team that needs one to step into a starter's role.

With the uncertainty of free agents Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in Miami, most mock drafts have Ingram going to the Fish at pick 15.

But some fantasy owners fall in love with rookie backs too soon or disregard the fragility of players who battled injuries in college. Just ask anybody who drafted Buffalo's C.J. Spiller or San Diego's Ryan Mathews in 2010.

Spiller had a disappointing inaugural season in the NFL. But fantasy owners should not have put much stock in him in the first place. For half the season, Spiller played behind both Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, prior to Lynch's trade to Seattle.

Meanwhile, many gurus predicted that Mathews would make Chargers fans forget long-time star LaDainian Tomlinson, who left sunny Southern California for the bright lights of New York.

Two games into the season, Mathews suffered a high ankle sprain and fantasy owners paid the price. But they should have seen it coming. Mathews was injury-prone in college, with knee, ankle and foot problems that limited him.

At 5’10 and 215 pounds, Ingram looks durable, but after winning the Heisman Trophy in 2009, he underwent minor knee surgery and missed the Crimson Tide's 2010 opener.  That, in itself, has some teams concerned.

Fortunately for Ingram, he looked as healthy as an ox at the combine and at his pro day, where he ran in the low 4.5s.

Look for Ingram to be a low-risk, high-reward pick for fantasy owners, who can only hope that he lives up to the Emmitt Smith comparisons that got everybody excited in the first place.

Then again, we're talking about a rookie here. Smith is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, who also happens to be the NFL's all-time leading rusher.

Possible Destinations: Miami, New England, New York Giants or Green Bay

2011 Stat Prediction: 236 Rush Att - 1062 Yds, 22 Rec - 154 Yds, 10 Total TDs

3. ILLINOIS RB MIKEL LESHOURE

Call me crazy, but I think Mikel Leshoure is going make an immediate impact in Fantasy, especially if he lands on a squad that is willing to feed him the ball.

The Illinois workhorse toted the rock 281 times in 2010 for 1,697 yards and 17 rushing touchdowns to earn the College Football Performance Awards’ Running Back Trophy.

The honor is based on the extent to which an individual player increases the overall effectiveness of his team.

Leshoure broke Illinois’ record for overall touchdowns in a season with 20 and his rushing total broke the all-time Fighting Illini record previously held by Pittsburgh Steelers star Rashard Mendenhall.

If you still don’t believe he will be a force to be reckoned with, check out Leshoure's highlight reel, courtesy of YouTube.

It begins with a touchdown scamper against Northwestern at Chicago’s Wrigley Field. His overall performance in the Nov. 20 game was stunning, with another score and a school-record 330 yards on the ground.

It was Division I’s highest single-game rushing total in 2010 and put Leshoure’s name squarely on the NFL Draft map.

Possible Destinations: New England, Green Bay, Washington, Denver or New York Giants

2011 Stat Prediction: 200 Rush Att - 940 Yds, 37 Rec - 327 Yds, 8 Total Tds

4. ALABAMA WR JULIO JONES

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Alabama’s Julio Jones will be a fantasy stud as a rookie. Now, normally I would rate guys like A.J. Green and Jones lower on my list and for good reason.

Rookie wide receivers that are considered “best in class” tend to be merely average in their freshman campaigns and sometimes it takes three seasons for them to achieve star status.

But Jones’ talent is undeniable. When he’s focused, he can be downright lethal, with 4.3 speed that often leaves defenders in his rear view.

Unfortunately, his attention can be fleeting, with drops at the most inopportune times. In a sense, he’s a lot like Terrell Owens. He’ll use his physicality to make a clutch third-down grab, but he’ll make coaches cry by misplaying a ball when he’s wide open.

Then again, he reminds me of a young Anquan Boldin too. You know, the current Baltimore Ravens star, who burst on the scene in 2003 with Arizona?

Boldin’s rookie numbers were 101 catches for 1,377 yards and 8 touchdowns. Would those stats help your fantasy team?

Possible Destinations: Tennessee, Washington, Minnesota, or St. Louis

2011 Stat Prediction: 68 Rec, 872 Yds, 6 Tds

5. VIRGINIA TECH RB RYAN WILLIAMS

Mark Ingram may be the only back taken in the first round and that’s still up for debate. But it does not necessarily mean that this year’s running back class is weak.

Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams is considered by many to be next in line after Ingram. And although he struggled with injuries in college, Williams could be a fantasy surprise, if you’re willing to take a stab at him.

According to the Sporting News, Williams loved watching Dallas star Emmitt Smith as a kid. But this writer likes the fact that he wore the number 34 for the Hokies, in honor of a man affectionately known as 'Sweetness.'

A hamstring injury, combined with a three-back system, limited Williams’ production a year ago. But scouts should refer to his 2009 totals to see the potential the kid has. As a sophomore, he scampered for 1,655 yards and 21 touchdowns on 293 carries.

At 5'-9, he’s actually the same size as Chicago great Walter Payton and if given the chance, he would like to follow in his footsteps to greatness.

Possible Destinations: New England, New York Giants, Chicago or Cincinnati

2011 Stat Prediction: 194 Rush Att - 853 Yds, 38 Rec - 343 Yds, 6 Total TDs

6. KANSAS STATE RB DANIEL THOMAS

Minor injuries can sometimes stall running backs in their tracks, especially ones who run over defenders instead of around them.

This has been the case for Kansas State’s Daniel Thomas, who missed the Senior Bowl, the Combine and his school’s original pro day with a strained hamstring. Scouts already know what the 6'-230 pound Thomas brings to the table.

In 2009, he earned the Big 12’s Offensive Newcomer of the Year Award with a conference-leading 1,265 yards and 11 touchdowns. He then followed it up with 1,585 yards and 19 scores in his senior year.

But Thomas is pedestrian when it comes to straight-line speed, and NFL scouts wanted to see him up close to gauge how slow he truly is.

When he finally performed in front of them on April 5, he clocked out in the mid-4.6 range, but immediately cited a strained quad muscle.

He may slip to the late-third or fourth round, but the team that drafts him will need him to focus on staying in shape. If he does, he could be a diamond in the rough for both the team and fantasy owners.

Possible Destinations: Cincinnati, New York Giants, New Orleans or Denver

2011 Stat Prediction: 173 Rush Att - 744 Yds, 18 Rec - 137 Yds, 5 Total TDs

7. PITTSBURGH WR JONATHAN BALDWIN

The last time a wide receiver came out of Pitt with the size and speed of Jonathan Baldwin, he did pretty well for himself. So, if lightning can strike once for Arizona, why not twice?

Baldwin may never duplicate the success of the great Larry Fitzgerald, but can you imagine Fitz taking him under his wing? With his 6'-5 frame, Baldwin’s 4.4 speed in the 40 is breathtaking and even faster than Fitzgerald ran.

Wherever he goes, he will scare the daylights out of undersized corners and will be an immediate red-zone threat.

Choose him wisely in dynasty leagues and you may reap the benefits sooner than later, especially if a mentor like Fitzgerald is around to show him the ropes.

Possible Destinations: San Diego, Washington, Denver, New England or Arizona

2011 Stat Prediction: 52 Rec, 718 Yds, 5 Tds

8. ARKANSAS QB RYAN MALLET

“So, did you do drugs or didn’t you?” That was a recurring question at the combine for Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallet, who probably wishes he had never given into his curiosity to try a mind-altering substance.

But just like in the real world, misdeeds can be hard to overcome, especially if one refuses to accept responsibility and own up to mistakes.

Although he was scrutinized for not answering questions about his reported drug use, Mallet was composed through most of his interview at the NFL combine. Photo by HawgSports.com

Coincidentally, Mallet was stoic throughout most of his interview at the NFL Combine. To view some of his answers to questions that were not about his alleged drug use, check out these video excerpts, courtesy of the San Francisco 49ers. 

Of course, Mallet did not help himself out with the media, when he repeatedly refused to answer the $64,000 question.

He stated time and again that he would provide an answer in private meetings with teams, but when he cut the press conference off and stormed off the podium, the damage was done.

Mallet may have been mum on the advice of his agent, but he was ultimately perceived as a young man with a cavalier attitude.

Some teams pay the consequences for spending time and money on loose cannons. Remember San Diego and Ryan Leaf? But, if Mallet’s answer in private is acceptable and he remains clean, he could be the steal of the draft.

At 6’7” and with a rifle arm to die for, many teams fancy him, especially because he comes from a pro-style offense. But he is by far the slowest signal caller in the draft and will need a line that is capable of keeping a statue upright.

Mallet’s fantasy and early success will be determined by the team that drafts him. If it’s a veteran one, with loads of talent like Minnesota, he could start from day one. But if it is a mediocre team that is re-building, the heat in the kitchen may be too hot for Mallet to handle.

Possible Destinations: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Arizona or Tennessee

2011 Stat Prediction: 275 Pass Att, 3340 Yds, 22 Pass Tds, 17 INTs; 20 Rush, 42 Yds, 2 Rush Tds

9. CAL RB SHANE VAREEN

Fantasy Sleeper Alert!  Fantasy Sleeper Alert!  Name: Shane Vareen.  Position: RB.  Conference: Pac 10.  Team: Cal.  I know, I know.  Cal is the same school that produced Marshawn Lynch, who got in trouble with the law, not once, but twice in Buffalo and then fizzled out with the Bills, who replaced him with former undrafted free agent Fred Jackson and former Clemson star C.J. Spiller.

But if you recall, Lynch was a first-round draft choice of the Bills (12th overall) in 2007. Cal has also produced a pair of solid NFL backs in Jahvid Best and Justin Forsett and an average one in J.J. Arrington.

So, for the heck of it, let’s compare Lynch and Vareen, who is expected to come off the board in the second or third round. Both players, of course, played three seasons for the Bears, before foregoing their final season of college eligibility.

Total rushing attempts: Vareen wins 556 to 490. Total rushing yards: Lynch wins by a nose, 3,230 to 2,834. Total rushing TDs: Deadlocked at 29. Total 100-yard rushing games: Vareen wins, 11 to 9.

Total receptions: Vareen wins 74 to 68. Total receiving yards: Vareen wins by a nose, 674 to 600. Total receiving TDs: Deadlocked at 6. Total all-purpose yardage (including kick and punt returns): Lynch wins by a nose 4,574 to 4,069.

Lynch started 20 of 38 games in his Cal career, but had no starts in his first season with the team and missed two games due to injury in 2005 and half of another in 2006.  Vareen started 19 of 38 games, including three starts in his first year. He saw action in every single one of the 38 total games.

So, there you have it. Basically, Lynch and Vareen are identical, when it comes to production, but Vareen was more durable.  Vareen is just as fast too.  He ran just one one-hundredths of a second slower than Lynch at the combine. Lynch was 4.46 and Vareen, 4.47.

Therefore, an organization that picks Vareen gets a first-round talent in the late second or early-third round. Not too shabby for franchises that refuse to reach for players too early. And if you’re a fantasy owner, you cannot go wrong with the value you will get in the short and long term.

Vareen can sub for a starter in a pinch, like he did in his first two seasons behind Best. He also is consistent. He had multiple touchdowns in 10 games, 100 or more all-purpose yards 20 times and at least one reception in 37 of his 38 contests.

According to WalterFootball.com, Vareen has athleticism and vision, is elusive in the open field and is simply too talented to fall past the second round at this point. Okay. Maybe a team will need to reach just a little bit.

Possible Destinations: Green Bay, New Orleans, New England, Miami or Atlanta

2011 Stat Prediction: 164 Rush Att - 697 Yds, 24 Rec - 209 Yds, 5 Total TDs

10. AUBURN QB CAMERON NEWTON

Cam Newton's fantasy relevance will depend on who takes him at the end of April. If it's a team with a returning starter like Buffalo, he will likely sit and learn. But if it's Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee or Washington, he may spread his wings early and often.

Big arm? Check. Physical freak? Check. Team Leader, Heisman Winner, Champion and Fantasy sensation for the next decade? Check. So why would any team pass on Cam Newton as the next face of its franchise?

According to former Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner, Cam Newton is a guy with loads of potential, but the odds are stacked against him because he prefers to tuck the ball in and run instead of looking for a second or third option on pass plays.

“Tell me the last QB that won a championship that was a ’running QB’?” asked Warner on NFL Network. “I can’t tell you one that’s won one in this league.”

Recently, Pro Football Weekly writer Nolan Nawrocki had some nasty things to say about Newton in his NFL Draft Preview Guide.

Nawrocki came under fire afterwards for what was considered to be over-the-top criticism of the Tigers star. Mr. Nawrocki may not have a personal vendetta against Newton, but his critique was so scathing, it made Warner’s comments seem like child’s play.

A few of Nawrocki’s points were valid, but Newton has his defenders too. Most of them believe the Auburn star has matured and has put his questionable past behind him.

They point out that Newton was an immature teenager when his off-the-field issues occurred and that his ability to succeed under pressure and with so much scrutiny is a testament to his character.

The debate about Newton’s integrity and his father’s influence can be debated for days, months or years.

But when all is said and done, there is no denying that Newton is a physical marvel, who happens to have the smile and charisma to sell loads of merchandise.  He also will put fannies in stadium seats, including the frozen ones in Orchard Park, New York.

That is the bottom line in the NFL and the main reason Carolina would be crazy not to draft Newton No. 1 overall.

If that does not happen and Newton slips down a couple of notches, this writer will predict one thing for certain. Small market Buffalo will draft Newton and without hesitation. Why, you ask? Because 92-year old Hall of Fame owner Ralph Wilson is a lot smarter than people think.

Like he did when he drafted Jim Kelly in 1983, Wilson will pull the trigger on a quarterback who demands the spotlight.

Kelly, who is also a Hall of Famer, has gone on record to say that Newton is not an ideal fit for Buffalo. But at one time, he felt the same way about himself. After spurning the Bills to play in the USFL, he had a change of heart in 1986, and we all know how that turned out.

If Buffalo fans hope to keep their team from running off to a larger market, they should embrace Newton if he is there for the taking at No. 3. Prime-time broadcasts have been hard to come by for the Bills, who have not made a postseason appearance in 11 years.

And that will change in a heartbeat if Newton becomes Buffalo’s leader. Wilson may not be around to see many more Monday Night affairs, but his spirit will rest easy when he leaves this great earth.

Possible Destinations: Carolina, Buffalo, Cincinnati or Arizona

2011 Stat Prediction: 225 Pass Att, 2025 Yds, 15 Pass Tds, 13 INTs; 58 Rush, 406 Yds, 5 Rush Tds

NEXT WEEK:  PART TWO OF FANTASY FOOTBALL'S “WET BEHIND THE EARS"................. 10 MORE ROOKIES WHO COULD MAKE A SPLASH