2011 NHL Playoffs: Round 1 Preview

This is my third year at NHL playoff previews.  Traditionally, I've done extremely well in the first round and I hope to continue this year.

Looking at some of the matchups, there are several "show-me" series, in the sense that based on past record, one team has to prove itself before betting on them.

And, in general, that is the pattern I am going to follow.  Stick to the tried and true, until proven wrong.  I'd like to see some upsets, but not many are going to happen.

Except for the fact that the last playoff position wasn't decided until the last regular season game was played, the NHL didn't like the final result. 

They wanted to see troubled teams with bad attendance like Columbus, Atlanta, Florida and the New York Islanders make the playoffs.  Dopey Dallas committed suicide in the very last game after being handed an opportunity to make the playoffs on a platter.

They also want to see the two teams that did make the playoffs with troubled attendance histories; Phoenix and Nashville make it to the next round.  Alas, they won't like my predictions.

Like previous years, there are certain teams and players who are under extra pressure to do well.  As in previous predictions, I'll start by giving a brief outline of their special situations before moving on to the predictions themselves.

I have never picked a Stanley Cup champion until the final round, but this year I've got an inkling to do it early.  If they can get by the Detroit Red Wings, it's Anaheim.

TEAMS WITH EXTRA PRESSURE

Vancouver Canucks

There's always pressure in Vancouver but never more so than this year because they won the President's Trophy and were miles ahead of everyone else in the final standings.  Statistically, they had both the best offense and defense.  But ever since they have been a contender, the Canucks have only been good enough to beat a first round entrant.  When it came time to tangle with the big boys and prove they were one of them, they failed miserably.  The Canucks must make at least the Western Final or there will be soul-searching questions raised about the team's character and goaltending, and perhaps a coaching change as well.

Washington Capitals

They can't bomb out in the first round to a much lesser light like last year.  The Capitals have to win at least one playoff round.  Ever since Washington became noticed after signing Alexander Ovechkin, they have been the marshmallow team of the playoffs.  Their goaltending is still suspect.  But another first round exit may provoke a character housecleaning in the offseason that might include the coach.

PLAYERS WITH EXTRA PRESSURE

Roberto Luongo

He's won the big one on the international stage when Canada won the 2010 Olympics, but Luongo has yet to make his mark in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  He was signed to be the difference, the playoff mvp, but the Chicago Blackhawks have shot holes in him.  Now with the Canucks at the top of the regular season heap, it's perform, or at least a whispering campaign in Vancouver will commence.

Daniel and Henrik Sedin

The twins have been good playoff performers, but with the Canucks now Cup favorites, there will be extra pressure on them to lift the team at least into the ranks of top contenders.  They will probably do well as usual, but will it be enough?

Carey Price

It would have been better if Price had been traded to St. Louis instead of Jaroslav Halak.  Every fan in Montreal has the memory of Halak lifting the Canadiens past two teams it should have had no business beating.  Now poor Price, who is already a suspect playoff goaltender in Montreal, has that tied around his neck as well.  Montreal is still an underdog in the playoffs.  They can lose 1-0, 2-1, and maybe 3-2.  But any shoot out losses and Price will feel the wrath of the fans and so will the Montreal management that traded Halak.

Alexander Ovechkin

His star has been waning because of Washington's early exit last year and because of Russia's poor showing at the Olympics.  If the Capitals go out early this year, his status will drop even further.

Joe Thornton, Dany Heatly, and Patrick Marleau

They should be under more pressure, but they won't be this year.  They are the kings of the under-achieving playoff players.  Last year, it was players like Joe Pavelski, Devin Setoguchi, and Dan Boyle who took the Sharks to the Western final.  It will be up to them again this year with these three over rated freeloaders along for the ride.

Jimmy Howard

Howard has to follow in the footsteps of Chris Osgood and Dominik Hasek.  But it's his team now and he's got to show he can carry the Red Wings or questions will be asked about if he can win the big one.

Corey Crawford

Even though Chicago is a much weaker team, Crawford will be unfairly compared to Antti Niemi, who helped end Chicago's long Stanley Cup drought.  If the Blackhawks do poorly, management will be questioned about whether they let the right players go to solve their salary cap problems.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers

Washington is one of those "show me" teams, but the New York Rangers aren't the Montreal Canadiens.  All the pressure will be on the Capitals and Ovechkin and their goaltending.  But they have enough to get by the Rangers, though it will take six games before they somehow fumble and bumble their way to the second round. 

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Buffalo Sabres

Way back in the 1970s, the Sabres would fare poorly against Bobby Clarke and the Broad Street Bullies.  But in recent playoff years, Buffalo has matched up well against Philadelphia.  The Sabres will upset the Flyers in six games behind Ryan Miller.

Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens

Once upon a time, any Bruin-Canadien matchup was an automatic victory for Montreal.  But the last time these two teams played, the Bruins swept the Canadiens.  Though Carey Price has beaten the Bruins in the playoffs before, it won't happen this time.  Montreal won't be swept, but they will exit in five games, leaving poor Price and the Montreal management the targets of the fans who will remember Jaroslav Halak.  The only other interesting thing about this series will be the reception Zdeno Chara gets in Montreal.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

This is the toughest series to call in this conference.  Both franchises have won the big one in the past decade, though Tampa Bay has slipped in recent years because of ownership and goaltending problems.  Does Dwayne Roloson still have enough to carry a playoff team?  The other big difference is stars.  Tampa Bay has theirs while Pittsburgh won't have Malkin, and do they really want to take a chance on the future of Sydney Crosby if he is pronounced fit to play?  Tampa Bay's old stars still know how to rise to the occasion and new star, Steve Stamkos, wants to prove himself.  That will be the difference to advance Tampa Bay after six games. 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Vancouver Canucks vs. Chicago Blackhawks

The Canucks are the President's Trophy winners, the team with best regular season offense and defense.  The Blackhawks are a much weaker team, with a change in goaltenders, and especially with the absence of Canuck thorn-in-the-side, Dustin Byfuglien.  But in this series, the Canucks are the "show me" team.  Vancouver is the Blackhawks home away from home.  Roberto Luongo is a piece of Swiss cheese for Blackhawk shooters.  The Canucks will disappear after six games leaving a strong sense of sickness in Vancouver and a lot of recriminations and soul searching to do.

San Jose Sharks vs. Los Angeles Kings

If the Sharks were only relying on the Thornton-Heatly-Marleau line and the Kings had star Anze Kopitar in their lineup, an upset might have been possible.  Fortunately for the Sharks, they also have Setoguchi, Boyle and Pavelski.  They will carry the Sharks to victory after five or six games.

Detroit Red Wings vs. Phoenix Coyotes

Detroit is the tried and the true while the Coyotes are the "show me" team.  The Red Wings will have an easier time with the Coyotes than they did last year and will send them packing in six or five games.  This will anger the NHL and Gary Bettman whose defiant stand to keep the Coyotes in Phoenix will take another hit.  Will another playoff defeat be enough to send the Coyotes permanently out of town?

Anaheim Ducks vs. Nashville Predators

Poor Nashville, another chronic "show me" team, that is lean on talent and stars.  They keep getting first round playoff opponents they have no chance against.  The NHL desperately wants the Predators to finally win a playoff series so that they can cement a permanent hold among Nashville sports fans.  It won't happen again this year.  Anaheim is back.  Under coach Randy Carlyle, the Ducks have been the hardest hitting, most physical team in the NHL since they won the Stanley Cup.  The poor Predators will find out after five or six games.