NHL Eastern Conference Playoff Preview: Key Match-Ups, Stats, and X-Factors
Last year's Eastern Conference playoffs were about as unpredictable as possible, with the number 4, 6, 7, and 8 seeds winning in the first round. The second round saw a 3-0 series lead erased, and the Eastern Finals featured the Philadelphia Flyers and Montreal Canadiens two teams who made the playoffs on the season's final day.
The regular season ends today, but every spot in the Eastern Conference top eight has been decided. All stats are as of April 9th, although this isn't a stat-heavy preview.
For each series, I will give a story line, and break down the key matchup, key number, and x-factor, before reaching a verdict.
#1 Washington vs. #8 New York
1 of 7
The Capitals are coming into this series with bitter memories of last year’s loss to Montreal. The Rangers appear to be this year’s Montreal, sporting the league’s hottest goaltender and more talent than their record indicates.
Key Matchup: Caps top line vs. Henrik Lundqvist. The league’s hottest goalie will be up against as inspired, dynamic a line as there is.
Key Number: +35. The Rangers have a better goal differential than the Caps this year (+27). This is no ordinary 1 vs. 8.
X-Factor: Dennis Wideman. He’s been a +7 in 14 games with Washington, and if they’re going to take control of this series, it’ll be on defense.
Verdict: The Caps will be ready after last year’s early exit, and be more patient and deliberate. They will establish their game, and take care of business. Capitals in 6
#2 Philadelphia vs. #7 Buffalo
2 of 7
Both of these teams find their roles reversed from last year’s postseason. The Flyers are now the dominant #2 seed trying to suppress the hot #7. The Sabres, after being upset last year, look to return the favor to one of the East’s elite.
Key Matchup: Philly’s forward depth vs. Buffalo’s young defense. Ryan Miller is not playing defense single-handedly anymore, and Philly has three scoring lines who will force all six Buffalo D-Men, four of whom are under 25, to grow up fast.
Key Number: 22-19. Buffalo has the same road record as Philly does at home. If the top seed is to take care of business, they may need to do so after forfeiting home-ice early.
X-Factor: Drew Stafford. His 31 goals in 62 games and 17.3 shooting percentage ranks him among the leagues most frequent and effective goal scorers. Without Pronger, a guy like Stafford could swing this series.
Verdict: The Sabres know all too well the futility of being a favorite, and have caught the slumbering, Pronger-less Flyers at their low point. Buffalo is playing their best hockey, and this team is remembering how good they can be at the right time. Sabres in 7
#3 Boston vs. #6 Montreal
3 of 7
Boston, in another role reversal, finds themselves as the #3 trying to hold back the dangerous #6 this year. Montreal’s inspired run last year shocked everyone, but this year’s Carey Price-led team is recognized as a force to be reckoned with.
Key Matchup: Carey Price vs. Tim Thomas. The top-two Vezina candidates face off in what will be the playoffs most high-profile goalie showdown. No successful team relies on their goalie as much as these two (besides maybe NY), and any slip by either one could be the difference.
Key Number: 1.42. Boston’s 5-on-5 scoring ratio is tops in the NHL, whereas Montreal’s (1.01) is 16th. The Habs’ special teams are slightly more effective, but not enough to make up for this disparity.
X-Factor: Mike Cammalleri. Halak got all the praise, but Montreal would never have escaped round one without Mike’s heroics. No matter what Price does, it’ll be up to a now-proven leader like Cammalleri to lead another upset charge.
Verdict: Even though this is a 3-6 matchup, no other series looks so one-sided. Unless Montreal redefines their game and Boston implodes, this will be a quick series. Bruins in 5
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#4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Tampa Bay
4 of 7
The Penguins have gone through more injuries than any other team in the playoffs, yet have likely been the most consistent team in the East this season. Tampa Bay has been anything but consistent, but are as dangerous as they are vulnerable.
Key Matchup: Martin St. Louis vs. Paul Martin. While Kris Letang is likely going to focus on Steven Stamkos, the Lightning’s most dangerous player could, as he often does, go a little unnoticed. St. Louis is often looked at as strictly a facilitator, but 31 times this year, he’s proved these assumptions to be futile.
Key Number: 103. Tampa Bay finished the season just shy of the #4 seed, meaning they will have to win in Pittsburgh. Both of these teams are where they are because of home dominance, and stealing home-ice will be very difficult for this relatively inexperienced bunch.
X-Factor: Jordan Staal. Pittsburgh’s depth is great, but to win in a short series, someone needs to score a lot. Staal has never been much of a playoff performer, but perhaps his elevated role in Crosby and Malkin’s absence will be the stage he needs.
Verdict: This series will be better than one may expect if they’re going off of experience and goal differential. Tampa will not go away, but Pittsburgh’s depth will outlast Tampa Bay. Penguins in 7
#1 Washington vs. #7 Buffalo
5 of 7
The Capitals, with their post-early exit jitters gone, will get a team fresh off an upset and playing better than they have all season.
Key Matchup: Tyler Myers vs. John Carlson. Two young defensemen with 37 points each this year will be heavily relied on for mature defensive zone play and offensive contributions. Whoever rises to the occasion will give their team a definitive edge.
Key Number: 47.7%. Buffalo has struggled on draws all season, and Washington (51.6) will have an opportunity to capitalize.
X-Factor: Ryan Miller. Washington should control this series in terms of zone time, defense, and physicality. But even if Buffalo’s backs are up against it, figuratively and literally, Ryan Miller at the top of his game is enough to win any series.
Verdict: The Caps will allow damage but limit the Sabres top line just enough, while Ryan Miller and the young D will not be able to handle a polished offense that will be clicking on all cylinders at this point. Capitals in 6
#3 Boston vs. #4 Pittsburgh
6 of 7
The Bruins will be rested and refining their game, while Pittsburgh will have a quick turnaround following their game seven win.
Key Matchup: Boston’s top six forwards vs. Pittsburgh’s top four D-men. The Penguins have three very good defensemen, but there is a reason championship contenders need a strong top four: teams like Boston. Bergeron, Lucic, Horton, Krejci, Recchi, and Marchand are all going to be better defensively than Pittsburgh’s top 6, so Pitt’s D better shut them down offensively.
Key Number: 86.5%. The Penguins have the NHL’s best penalty kill, and Boston is 25th in the NHL in power play goals. If Pittsburgh gets ahead in a few games, they’ll have no problem being physical and wearing Boston down, not only with their depth, but also the unlikelihood of Boston responding by drawing lucrative penalties.
X-Factor: Zdeno Chara. Boston’s top forwards should give them the edge, but Pittsburgh’s depth and top defensemen look better. If Chara can be the best defensemen in this series and shut down Pittsburgh’s top line, Boston should be able to win this thing through sheer force.
Verdict: If both teams play their game, Boston has the edge. They are more dangerous offensively, have two of the games best stoppers in Chara and Thomas, and should control the face-off battle. Bruins in 5
#1 Washington vs. #3 Boston
7 of 7
The Capitals will begin to smell the Stanley Cup, but will also run into their first division winner of the post-season. Boston will come into the series having played only ten games to get there, looking to take advantage of their freshness.
Key Matchup: Patrice Bergeron vs. Nicklas Backstrom. Both average more than 23 shifts per game, both are defensively accountable, both are adept in the face-off circle, both are 5-on-5 scoring machines. Alex Ovechkin is the best forward on either team, but these centers matter more for each team than anyone.
Key Number: 11. Alex Ovechkin is the NHL leader in game-winning goals. He also scored 11 times for the Caps in 14 playoff games two years ago. He is also +11 since the beginning of March. If these three trends continue, then Ovi’s “worst year” will end up being his best.
X-Factor: Michael Ryder. He may be a -2 on a +52 team, but he is tied for the team lead in PP goals with eight, and need to lead this unit in a big way against Washington’s 85.6 percentPK (2nd in the NHL). The Caps rely on killing penalties, and a couple surprise stikes could totally turn this series.
Verdict: These teams are very evenly matched. Both have excellent top two lines, both play well in all three zones. Both win draws, and both comeback when down. In what will be a classic duo between Ovechkin, Chara, Semin, Lucic, etc, Tim Thomas will steal game seven in Washington. Bruins in 7
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