Vancouver Canucks Playoff Preview: Bring on the Blackhawks!

Going into the last weekend of the regular season, the Vancouver Canucks could end up facing any one of five different teams in the first round of the playoffs. However, the most likely scenario based on the standings and remaining schedule is that the Canucks meet the Chicago Blackhawks in the playoffs for the third year in a row.

The Blackhawks knocked off the Canucks in six games during the second round in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010

Some fans of the defending Stanley Cup champions are rubbing their hands in glee at the thought of such a matchup, certain that the Blackhawks can easily dispose of the Canucks as they did in the previous two playoffs.

Those fans are wrong.

The Canucks and Blackhawks of 2010-2011 are both changed drastically from their 2009-2010 incarnations.

The Blackhawks have gotten worse due to their much-documented salary cap woes and are facing a must-win situation in Game 82 to just make the playoffs.

The Canucks, on the other hand, have put together one of the most dominant regular seasons in recent history, clinching the President's trophy weeks before the season ends.

Consider these statistics for the two teams based on the 2010-2011 Season (81 GP) vs. the 2009-2010 Season (82 GP)

Power Play:
2010-2011
Vancouver 1st: 24.2%
Chicago 2nd: 23.4%

2009-2010
Vancouver 6th: 20.9%
Chicago 16th: 17.7%

Penalty Kill:
2010-2011
Vancouver 1st: 86.5%
Chicago 25th: 79.2%

2009-2010
Vancouver: 18th 81.6%
Chicago 4th: 85.3%

Goals For:
2010-2011
Vancouver 1st: 3.15 per game (255 total)
Chicago 4th: 3.07 per game (249 total)

2009-2010
Vancouver 2nd: 3.27 per game (268 total)
Chicago 3rd: 3.20 per game (262 total)

Goals Against:
2010-2011
Vancouver 1st: 2.20 per game (178 total)
Chicago 12th: 2.67 per game (216 total)

2009-2010
Vancouver 13th: 2.66 per game (218 total)
Chicago 6th: 2.48 per game (203 total)

Goal Differential:
2010-2011
Vancouver 1st: +76
Chicago 5th: +34

2009-2010
Vancouver 3rd: +50
Chicago 2nd: +62

Faceoffs:
2010-2011
Vancouver 1st: 55.0%
Chicago 13th: 50.8%

2009-2010
Vancouver 7th: 51.4%
Chicago 3rd: 52.4%

Overall Record:
2010-2011
Vancouver 1st: 115 pts (53-19-9)
Chicago 13th: 97 pts (44-28-9)

2009-2010
Vancouver 5th: 103 pts (49-28-5)
Chicago 3rd: 112 pts (55-22-8)

Pick any statistical category, the Canucks are better than the Blackhawks.

Now regular season success isn't a guarantee of playoff success (just ask the Capitals and Sharks), but it is indicative of how a team can perform. There is a reason Detroit has had both the best regular season success and also playoff success in the modern era.

Yes, Cinderella teams can catch fire and get lucky. Upsets can happen. But they are called upsets for a reason.

Aside from regular season statistics, there are a few other factors that favor the Canucks over the Blackhawks.

First, injuries. The Canucks are missing Manny Malhotra with his season ending eye injury. The Blackhawks are missing Dave Bolland (concussion). Yes, Malhotra is a huge part of the team, but he was the third line center. Bolland is a second liner for the Hawks and was also instrumental in shutting down the Sedins last year. (How often have you seen a Sedin lose it and try to punch someone out?)

Also, the Canuck's defence (nine NHL-caliber defencemen deep) is finally healthy. And while Duncan Keith would definitely be the best defenceman on the ice, the Canucks have the better second and third pairings.

Second, the Blackhawks are missing a huge chunk of their roster from last year's championship team.

Dustin Byfuglien
Kris Versteeg
Brent Sopel
John Madden
Andrew Ladd
Ben Eager
Adam Burish
Colin Fraser
Nick Boynton

Some of these players (Fraser, Boynton) were depth guys that didn't play many games. But the others were all significant pieces of the Blackhawks when they beat the Canucks in six games last spring.

Up front, Versteeg, Ladd, Madden, Eager and Burish all were a part of the swarming attack for the Blackhawks. They chipped in secondary scoring, but more importantly, they forechecked relentlessly, hit often and agitated like crazy. They pounded the Canuck's already battered defence and got the entire team off their game mentally as well.

Speaking of getting to the Canucks mentally, the Blackhawks are also missing a behemoth from the lineup with Dustin Byfuglien being traded to Atlanta in the salary cap purge last summer.

Byfuglien is a beast at 6'5" and 265 pounds. Aside from contributions on the scoresheet (11 goals, five of which were game winners and five assists), Byfuglien made everyone else on the Blackhawks better. He did such a masterful job of screening and bumping Roberto Luongo that the Canucks captain and his defence were more focused on Byfuglien than they were on the more dangerous players on the ice.

Guys like Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp and Keith all got extra time and space on a frequent basis as the Canucks tried (unsuccessfully) to double-team Byfuglien.

Who did the Canucks lose from last year's roster? No one that mattered in the playoffs. (Sorry Wellwood, it's harsh but true).

Instead, the Canucks have gotten better by bringing in new players to shore up weak points, especially on defence.

Those are all reasons why the Canucks would be favored over the Blackhawks in a first round encounter, should it happen.

Now here are some reasons why the Canucks should want to draw the Blackhawks in the first round.

1. Revenge. The Blackhawks have dispatched the Canucks in six games in the last two playoffs, with both game six losses coming at home for the Canucks. There is a well-documented rivalry between the two teams over the last few years, spilling over to regular season games as well. Plus, some Canucks, specifically Luongo, have some playoff demons to exorcise by defeating the Blackhawks.

2. You have to beat the best to be the best. Regardless of the rivalry between the Blackhawks and Canucks, the Blackhawks are the defending champions. That puts a target on their backs for any team that draws them in the playoffs, including the Canucks.

3. The Blackhawks are the best possible option out of the potential opponents (theoretically, it could instead be Dallas, LA, Nashville or Anaheim), if you are thinking about the long-term ramifications. The Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win in pro sports for a reason. You have to play mistake-free hockey for two months and four playoff series to win and also avoid injuries.

The Ducks with their monster forwards would be a punishing series that could inflict injuries on the Canucks defence. And Perry+Getzlaf+Ryan might be the best line in hockey at the moment.

Nashville would be a boring series as they clog it up defensively, and Rinne proves why he deserves the Vezina. Plus, do the Canucks really want to give Shea Weber a seven-game series to batter the Canucks forwards or injure someone blocking his shot?

The Kings could theoretically slump and fall to eighth if they lost their remaining game. But another victory over LA wouldn't prove anything, as they are missing Williams and Kopitar, and the Canucks beat them last year with those two in the lineup.

Similarly, Dallas has sucked against the Canucks this year. Neither of their goalies have even played a full game against the Canucks in the season series.

Beating either the Stars or the Kings wouldn't prove anything for the Canucks, and an easy series could be a problem, if they run into a better class of opponent in the second round.

Chicago is a fast, skilled team, but they aren't going to punish the Canucks physically like the Ducks or Nashville could.

Against the Blackhawks, the Canucks can play their style of game, match skill-on-skill and be challenged but still come out the better team over a seven-game series.

All in all, I'm hoping the Canucks do draw the Blackhawks in the first round.

*After the first-round matchups are finalized, I'll do a more complete analysis of the Canucks and their opponent.