2011 NFL Mock Draft: Mocking the First Round (Picks 1-16)
While news of the current NFL lockout might be dominating the headlines of major sports media outlets, most fans are heavily anticipating the upcoming NFL Draft. While free agency, trades, and re-signings have been put on hold for the immediate future, the draft gives football fans something to hold onto and obsess over. The draft is one of the most exciting times of the all-year season that has taken shape in the NFL, as many franchises will have their futures shaped, both for better and worse.
The following is picks 1-16. 17-32 will be following soon!
#1: Carolina Panthers: QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
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Needs: QB, WR, TE, DT, S
Previous Record: 2-14
The Carolina Panthers suffered through one of their worst seasons in their relatively brief history. Amongst the chief factors was injuries, but the team was also hampered by absolutely terrible quarterback play. Jimmy Clausen was awful, Matt Moore was ineffective, and Brian St. Pierre and Tony Pike didn't fare much better. In addition, a monster run-stuffer and difference-maker was also missed on the interior of the defensive line. The defense has been at its best in the past when they got all-around great defensive line play inside-and-out. That said, the 2011 Draft seems to be one chalk-full of DTs and I believe one can be had later. Keeping this in mind, I believe the Panthers will select QB Cam Newton. Every team in the NFC South has their franchise QB, and Carolina will snag theirs.
Newton has raised many red-flags over his attitude and inability to stay away from trouble. Despite this, he is an undeniable winner and physical specimen. Still, I believe he will be a project, and I don't think he's the Sam Bradford-type who can come in and immediately give you excellent play at the position. His ceiling is unlimited though, as there are very few QBs who can give you the mix of size and mobility that Newton possesses. If he is able to ease into a starting role gradually, I believe he can be successful.
#2: Denver Broncos: DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
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Needs: Interior OL, TE, DE, DT, LB, S
Previous Record: 4-12
Despite being hyped as a dark-horse playoff contender, the Denver Broncos flamed out in 2010. The Broncos passing offense under Josh McDaniels was as prolific as advertised, but the lack of a running game coupled with the worst defense in the league proved to be too much to overcome. After a draft in which the Broncos received very little immediate impact, the Broncos need a young player who can start from day one. With the defense switching from a 3-4 look to a 4-3, there is much to be done. A disruptive DT would be a good start, which is why I believe the Broncos will select DT Marcell Dareus of Alabama.
Dareus is effective at both disrupting the run and providing pressure on the QB. He played in a 3-4/multiple defense at Alabama, but I do not doubt his ability to quickly fit into a 4-3. Marcell has a lot of experience on a top-notch defense coached by guru Nick Saban, and he's the type of player who can immediately shore up Denver's absolutely atrocious run defense.
#3: Buffalo Bills: OLB/DE Von Miller (Texas A&M)
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Needs: QB, WR, TE, OL, DE, OLB
Previous Record: 4-12
The Bills are one of the least-talented teams in the NFL. A hodgepodge of unwanted talent, under-performers, and oft-injured starters, the Bills have several directions in which they could go in the upcoming draft. Many pundits believe that the Bills will take either Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton, if one is available, as the heir apparent to Ryan Fitzpatrick. However, the Bills have greater needs elsewhere. They could use a franchise left tackle, but none appear to be worthy of the #3 overall pick. With Lee Evans due a large bonus and having the possibility of being cut, A.J. Green would be a nice compliment to Steve Johnson, and Bills' coach Chan Gailey has shown he's not afraid of drafting playmakers. I do think the Bills are hoping Marcell Dareus falls to them, but in this mock, he's already gone, so I believe the Bills will take DE/OLB Von Miller out of Texas A&M.
With the complete and utter bust that is Aaron Maybin, the inability to stay on the field of Shawne Merriman, and the solid but unspectacular play of Chris Kelsay, the Bills lack any sort of consistent pass rush. Von Miller is a pass-rushing specialist with 28 sacks over his last two seasons. I think he's a bit of a reach here, but with Dareus off the board and Nick Fairley being undersized, Miller makes the most sense. He's a freakish athlete who has shown an ability to find the ball.
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#4: Cincinnati Bengals: DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
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Needs: QB (depending on the Palmer situation), WR, OL, DE, S
Previous Record: 4-12
The Bengals were perhaps one of the most disappointing teams in the league last year, failing to live up to expectations in a big way. Carson Palmer simply hasn't been able to rekindle the confidence he had before he suffered a catastrophic knee injury in the playoffs from a few years back. He has made bad decisions in the 4th quarter time and time again, and now is threatening retirement if the Bengals don't trade him. Blaine Gabbert could be an option here, although Cinci's management is adamant that they will not trade Palmer. WR could also be seen as a need as the Bengals are likely to jettison headcases Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, although Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, Jordan Shipley, and TE Jermaine Gresham seem as though they can shoulder the load left behind. The Bengals do need some offensive line help, as they ranked dead last in yards per carry. Defensively, the Bengals have some solid young players, but could use a DE to generate a pass rush outside of Carlos Dunlap. With that in mind, I think the Bengals are going to surprise some people and take a fast-riser in DE Robert Quinn of North Carolina.
Quinn was a top prospect heading into this season, but a scandal at UNC forced him to miss the entire year due to suspension. Be that as it may, I don't think it's an indictment on him as much as it is on North Carolina. In 2009, Quinn was an unstoppable force who recorded 11 sacks and was disruptive in every game he played. Lately, he's been tearing it up at his Pro Day and individual work-outs, and there's again tons of buzz surrounding him.
#5: Arizona Cardinals: CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
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Needs: QB, TE, OL, OLB, ILB, CB
Previous Record: 5-11
If the Cards weren't in the dreadful NFC West, they might have been even worse than 5-11. The team couldn't pass at all, run the ball consistently, stop the run, or win the turnover battle. They have many aging vets they need to purge, and the fact is they really need a QB more than anything else. With Blaine Gabbert still on the board, it becomes almost a no brainer... right? I don't think so. I think Ken Whisenhunt wants to satisfy his star WR Larry Fitzgerald and bring in a vet ala Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, or Kyle Orton. Arizona has seemed to go in a Best Player Available trend since Whisenhunt arrived on the scene, and I think that continues with his drafting of perhaps the best overall player on the board, CB Patrick Peterson.
Peterson is a big, physical corner who will compliment Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie excellently. With those two on the outside, the Cardinals will hold an almost asured advantage over most teams. It might be tough passing on a prospect like Gabbert, but Peterson is one of the only players worth the risk.
#6: Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
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Needs: WR, DE, DT, OLB, ILB
Previous Record: 5-11
The Browns are slowly but surely building a solid, young foundation to build upon behind the genius and scouting acumen of Mike Holmgrem. I was critical of his choice in drafting Joe Haden so high last year, but he was obviously right, and I can't doubt the man again. Offensively, the team has its QB in Colt McCoy, its RB in Peyton Hillis, its franchise LT in Joe Thomas, and a TE in Ben Watson. They're simply lacking playmakers at one position - WR. Luckily, the best player still available is on the board fits exactly that need. The Browns have an easy choice here, and will take WR A.J. Green out of Georgia.
A.J. Green has the potential to be the next great WR in the NFL, and will give McCoy a go-to target in the red-zone, opening up other things for all the other players around him.
#7: San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
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Needs: QB, OLB, CB
Previous Record: 6-10
The 49ers have been perhaps the most underachieving team of the past 5 years. They are constantly lauded as a contender, but always seem to fall flat on their faces. Now with John Harbaugh at the helm, I think the winds of change are about to blow the consistent failure out the door. Alex Smith's reign of injuries and underperformance have to be over. It's time for a new era with a new coach and a new quarterback, and I think the 49ers will select QB Blaine Gabbert who falls a bit from where most think he'll go.
I've liked Gabbert since 2009. He didn't put up great statistics last year, but the guy's got the arm strength, the size, and some of the more NFL-ready mechanics I've seen from a draft prospect in a while. I think he grades out as a very solid starting QB, with his ceiling being outstanding.
#8: Tennessee Titans: DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
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Needs: QB, WR, TE, DT
Previous Record: 6-10
The Titans appear to be on the verge of a total organizational collapse. Monolithic head coach Jeff Fisher is gone, Vince Young is on his way out, and the Randy Moss experiment was a total failure. They haven't won a playoff game in 7 seasons and seem to have fallen far behind the Colts in the AFC South. Somehow, the Titans don't seem to have a ton of needs outside of finding stability at QB, the luck of staying healthy, and shoring up their defense here and there. To that end, I think the Titans will continue to bolster their DL with the choice of DT Nick Fairley, who didn't seem like he'd be available here just a few weeks ago.
Fairley is a DT in the Glenn Dorsey mold. He seems like he's going to slide a bit because of some size concerns, but in college he was ultra-disruptive and was arguably the best pass-rushing DT in the nation last year. If the Titans were to draft him, he'd be familiar in the 4-3, playing alongside some other very good players and perhaps helping the Titans close the void they've had since Albert Haynesworth left.
#9: Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyron Smith (USC)
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Needs: RB, OL, ILB, OLB, S
Previous Record: 6-10
While the Cowboys may have played much-improved ball in the second half of the season under Jason Garrett despite missing Tony Romo, Dallas still has some holes to fill. The offensive line play has been consistently declining for the past few years. They're overpenalized, keep Tony Romo scrambling, can't seem to open the holes they used to for the running game, and are aging. That's a bad combination for a contender in a division that has a plethora of pass rushers. Horrific deep coverage also plagued the team, but there's no safety worthy of a choice this high. I think the Cowboys go after OT Tyron Smith from USC.
Smith has done a lot for himself in the off-season workouts, which may or may not be a good thing. However, he is seemingly the consensus best OL available at this point, and Romo needs to be protected if the Cowboys are going to get back to the playoffs.
#10: Washington Redskins: WR Julio Jones (Alabama)
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Needs: QB, RB, WR, DE, DT, OLB, S
Previous Record: 6-10
The Redskins are beyond a mess at this point. Offensively, Donovan McNabb is on the outs with no one good enough to replace him waiting in the wings, Clinton Portis is done as a factor back in the NFL, and there is no depth at WR. Defensively, Albert Haynesworth is one of the biggest free agent busts ever, they can't stop the run, and outside of Brian Orakpo, they cannot rush the passer. Not to mention that Reed Doughty started several games at safety last year. I think they need to go BPA, and the best player at this point is WR Julio Jones out of Alabama.
Julio is potentially the best WR in this class. The only area I think he falls behind A.J. Green in is his hands. Julio had a great year this past season, but he has had suspect hands in the past and has been known to drop passes. He really does remind me of Terrell Owens on the field though, so it's a problem any GM would be looking to look past.
#11: Houston Texans: OLB/DE Aldon Smith (Missouri)
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Needs: DE, DT, OLB, CB, S
Previous Record: 6-10
The Texans have virtually no weaknesses on offense. Their offensive line isn't elite and they could definitely use some upgrades in the middle, but they have so many issues on defense, it's a problem that may have to wait until day 2 or 3 of the draft. Wade Phillips is the new defensive coordinator, and has installed his trademark 3-4 system. Going from a 4-3 to a 3-4 can be a smooth transition if you have the right players, but I'm not sure the Texans do. They need five-technique DEs, rush OLBs, a run-stuffing nose-tackle, and big-time upgrades at the CB position. OLB/DE Aldon Smith out of Missouri is probably the hottest prospect available that fills one of those needs.
Smith is probably going to fill the biggest need for the Texans who have virtually ZERO rush LBs on their roster currently. It remains to be seen what capacity Mario Williams is going to be used in, so Smith just makes the most sense here. He's an ultra-athletic pass-rusher, although he is a bit raw. I don't expect him to have massive impact early on, but he seems like the type of player that could make great strides over the course of his first season.
#12: Minnesota Vikings: CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
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Needs: QB, OL, CB, S
Previous Record: 6-10
The Vikings biggest problem last year was they suffered from the untimely fall of Brett Favre. Outside of his problems, this was a very talented team with depth at most positions. Antoine Winfield and Pat Williams are both aging vets on the defense, and I think it's time to draft some guys to groom behind them. The Vikings did take Chris Cook early in the second round last year, but he missed a bunch of time, and I think CB Prince Amukamara is too good to pass up at this point.
Amukamara is a top-flight cover corner with the body to stand up to almost any receiver. He's excellent at jamming WRs at the line and playing physical. Considering the fact that Green Bay is now the class of this division and the NFL and have multiple stud WRs, Amukamara makes even more sense. His actual talent mandates that he goes higher than this, but I think other teams have more pressing needs.
#13: Detroit Lions: OT Anthony Castonzo (Boston College)
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Needs: OL, ILB, OLB, CB
Previous Record: 6-10
Drafting high year after year has finally paid off, and I think the Lions are on the verge of becoming a playoff contender. They still have a few massive holes they need to fill though: an offensive line that can keep Matt Stafford upright and open holes for their RBs, a stud LB, and a #1 CB. The Lions coverage was toasted far too often, but I have the two top CBs already gone by this point. There's no LB worthy of this pick. That leads me to the Lions taking the best OL available, OT Anthony Castonzo.
Castonzo gives the Lions the nasty road-grader they haven't had in quite some time. He's a tenacious blocker who isn't afraid to mix it up. He would improve the Lions two-fold by providing room for both the QBs and RBs to breathe.
#14: St. Louis Rams: DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
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Needs: WR, TE, DE, CB, S
Previous Record: 7-9
The Rams made an outstanding choice in franchise-changing QB Sam Bradford last year. He was an excellent decision maker and extremely accurate passer, but the Rams would probably love to get Julio Jones or A.J. Green to provide him with a go-to playmaker. With none being available at this point, they should focus on shoring up their steadily improving defense. DE Da'Quan Bowers is slipping on draft boards because of injury problems, but he's simply too talented to pass up at this point.
Bowers and Chris Long could provide a nice pass-rush for the next several years. Bowers just needs some time to shake a knee injury. I think Bowers is at his best as a hand-in-the-ground 4-3 DE, and coaching from Steve Spagnoulo may turn him into the steal of this draft.
#15: Miami Dolphins: G/C Mike Pouncey (Florida)
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Needs: QB, RB, Interior OL
Previous Record: 7-9
The Dolphins are another one of those teams who have outstanding depth all over the field except for one position: QB. That said, I don't think there's one worthy of a selection at this point, and I believe the Dolphins will acquire a vet in the trade market. Outside of that big hole, the Dolphins could use a RB to replace the aging Ricky Williams and the inconsistent and oft-injured Ronnie Brown. The team needs to improve the interior of their OL. Jake Long is a hell of a player, but he can't do it alone. G/C Mike Pouncey would help immediately at either guard or center.
Pouncey struggled with shotgun snaps early in the collegiate season, but steadily improved throughout the season. His twin brother, Maurkice, was a Pro Bowler in his rookie season and obviously Mike is very similar. It's not the sexy pick, but it's a smart one, and could improve the running game without drafting a RB.
#16: Jacksonville Jaguars: DE J.J. Watt (Wisconsin)
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Needs: QB, WR, DE, S
Previous Record: 8-8
The Jaguars are sort of a hard team to mock in most cases: they're solid at a lot of positions, but could use upgrades. Fortunately, the depth of this draft kind of dictates what constitutes a smart pick for the franchise. They could use a young QB to groom behind David Garrard, but there's none really worthwhile here. The big problem is that the Jaguars have spent so much money and so many draft picks on DEs, but it still remains perhaps their biggest weakness. DE J.J. Watt will perhaps put an end to that cycle.
Watt is the type of player that's hard to see failing in the NFL. The guy's got a great motor, outstanding size, and is far more athletic than any scouts thought until he had a phenomenal combine. His draft stock has been improving, and he could easily go much higher than this. He's a three-down DE, with the ability to rush the passer, and help on runs to the edge.
Conclusion
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That concludes the first half of my mock draft. Stay tuned for picks 16-32, to be coming in the next few days.
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