NFL Draft 2011: 10 Players Most Likely To Win Offensive Rookie of the Year Award
The players who have won the rookie of the year award in the past have done so by dominating competition right out of college. No easy task.
Over the next ten slides we will examine why the players who make up the list for this years hopefuls have a shot at winning the most coveted individual award among first year players.
Each of these players has the ability to be the best at their positions in the future. Whether they reach the lofty heights their potential can get them to will be dependent on what team (system) they end up in, if they can withstand injuries and if they succumb to off the field temptations.
We may be looking at the next generation of greats. A couple of guys on this list are good enough to play in any system with success, those are the front-runners. But a few guys will give them a run for their money and they make the list as well.
Who will join the ranks with past winners Randy Moss, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Adrian Peterson and Eddie George?
Here is the list of top ten players most likely to succeed immediately, and earn praise for their endeavors right out of the gate.
10. Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
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This guy reminds me of LaDainian Tomlinson. Short, fast and sturdy. Williams is praised for getting into the open field and then using his skills to dodge linebackers.
Expect the team that picks up Williams to use him as a backup to their starter on third down, and eventually work him into the starting job one day. This course of action hurts his chances of winning the award of course, but it's the best way to develop him.
Williams is a good pass catcher and is excellent at making people miss him. Using him in screens and on draws will allow him to pile up yards, much like LeSean McCoy of the Philadelphia Eagles.
If he is given the starting job, expect great things from him right away. However, injuries are the concern with him. If he doesn’t have a good year, it will be due to going down.
Previous Rookie of the Year winner comparison: Marshall Faulk, 1994.
9. Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
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Smith will develop into a great receiver at some point in his career. Whether he plays good enough in his first season to garner the big award will be determined by what system and what quarterback he plays with.
A team like St. Louis or Cleveland, where he would be the main target and his sole job would be to stretch the field, would be ideal. In these circumstances, his numbers could reflect what Randy Moss had in 1998. The Colts might also be a nice landing place where he could flourish.
If he falters, it will be due to shutdown corners getting the best of him. On the plus side he is a good run blocker.
Previous Rookie of the Year winner comparison: Carl Pickens, 1992.
8. Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
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Now this is probably a long shot. Ponder would need a great system and a good pair of receiving targets.
He does have a remarkable sense for the game and was even described as “cerebral.” Ponder reminds me of Sam Bradford in how he plays the game with great mobility to avoid being sacked and has good vision and accuracy.
A team like Seattle, where the run game is starting to come back around and a few promising receivers (and six games against bad teams), might be just the trick.
If he is given the starting job, his road could be derailed by injuries, which he is well known for. But if he puts injuries behind him he will be winning plenty of awards over his NFL career.
Previous Rookie of the Year winner comparison: Sam Bradford, 2010.
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7. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
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Leshoure can become a very physical, every down type of back. He plays with aggression and drives hard for extra yardage.
He is typically tied to the Patriots in conversation, and this makes a lot of sense. With his endurance and strength, combined with is speed, there really isn't any call he can't answer.
Regardless of whether he plays in New England or not, this is the kind of guy who can make things happen at the next level. Give him a strong team like the Patriots or Packers, and he just might be the one to take home the prize.
Previous Rookie of the Year winner comparison: Edgerrin James, 1999.
6. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Norte Dame
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I have been mocking Rudolph to the Kansas City Chiefs in my drafts recently. I’m not saying he will definitely end up in KC, but if he does it would be the best situation to take advantage of his skills.
If Rudolph is placed in an offense with an accurate quarterback and a top flight receiver to draw coverage he will blossom. Rudolph has great speed for a tight end and size to go with it. In college they ran him on plenty of post routes to take advantage of mismatches with safeties.
Rudolph’s problem is injuries, but if he can sustain throughout the season he could put up Shannon Sharpe-like numbers.
Previous Rookie of the Year winner comparison: A tight end has never won this award. Rudolph very well could become the first.
5. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
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For Gabbert to have success, he will need a great quarterbacks coach and a lot of talent around him.
Fortunately there are two teams at the top of the draft with both: Arizona and Buffalo. With a safety cushion like Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, or a top notch coach like Chan Gailey in Buffalo, Gabbert could come in right off the bat and have a decent season like Matt Ryan did in 2008.
Of course, he isn’t naturally as gifted as Ryan is. If he ends up in a system that needs a makeover, don’t expect him to walk away with the trophy next season, but he should develop nicely for that team over time.
If the offensive line he ends up playing for is weak, Gabbert can make the plays last with his feet. He is a very athletic quarterback and shouldn't be overcome if he needs to run.
Previous Rookie of the Year winner comparison: Matt Ryan, 2008.
4. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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Julio Jones has some injury concerns, but it appears as though he is tough enough to play through anything and is stout anywhere on the field.
Put him with a QB like Bradford or Matt Shaub, and he will explode onto the scene. Jones could also fade away real fast if a team with no quarterback picks him.
This guy reminds me of another former rookie of the year award winner in Anquan Boldin. He plays the middle of the field aggressively and has excellent hands, I wouldn’t be surprised if he walks away with the prize.
However, it would appear that he suffers from a chronic fracture in his foot. Medically speaking, his foot doesn't hold up well after the wear and tear of a college (13 game) season. So that could derail his efforts.
Previous Rookie of the Year winner comparison: Anquan Boldin, 2003.
3. Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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Of course, Newton is on this list!
Some might point to his amazing athletic talent, but since Jake Locker matched Newton’s 40 time it is obvious that he will face players at the NFL level who can go stride for stride with him. He will need to develop more to be competitive.
What makes him special is his weight and arm strength. Sure, he may not be terribly accurate, but if Arizona picks him all he will need to do is get it close enough to Fitzgerald, not right on the numbers.
If he is fortunate enough to avoid Carolina, and gets in with Gaily or Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco, Newton can win a lot more than just the rookie of the year award. Even with the lack of talent in Carolina, he could put up great numbers.
Previous Rookie of the Year winner comparison: Ben Roethlisberger, 2004.
2. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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Mark Ingram could have the most impact of any rookie player next season if he has an offensive line in front of him that can block.
He has the speed, endurance and strength to be the all around type of back that Adrian Peterson is, and could definitely have the same kind of success that Peterson had in year one.
The nice thing for him is that teams aren’t looking for running backs early and he should end up with an established team. Miami has been mentioned, but he could also go to New England, Green Bay or even the New York Jets. If that is the case I would have to say his chances are pretty high to be the Rookie of the Year.
Previous Rookie of the Year winner comparison: Adrian Peterson, 2007.
1. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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Green has all the talent in the world and can stretch the field, or catch it short and run. If the team who lands Green gets him the ball in any situation he can put up big numbers. So with this much talent why wouldn’t he walk away with the top award for rookies the NFL gives out?
A team like Cleveland with a feared running game and a good quarterback in Colt McCoy would use him to his fullest potential, much like the Vikings did with 2009 award winner Percy Harvin. Any team could certainly benefit from his abilities.
Green earns the top spot due to no known injury concerns, freakish athletic ability, and proven in game numbers to back up his potential. Offensively Green is the best player in this draft and with be a great game breaking receiver, provided he is placed with a decent passer this is the most likely winner.
Previous Rookie of the Year winner comparison: Randy Moss, 1998.
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