2011 NFL Draft: Recent "Path to the Draft" Pegs New England Patriots Draft

It's nearly impossible to prognosticate the New England Patriots when it comes to the 2011 NFL Draft, which should be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.

Don't blame the NFL Network guys for trying. In fact, applaud them because if anyone's got it right, it's these guys.

In the video (which can be seen here) Charlie Casserley kicks it off by giving us his thoughts on the Patriots' needs.

"I think when you look at their football team, a couple of areas I think that they could probably use some help are interior offensive line, possibly even offensive tackle depending upon free agency. I think they could use a running back. Over on defense, pass rusher/outside linebacker and at defensive end."

Checkpoint, Charlie.

Of course, that's quite a laundry list of needs for a team that went 14-2. The Patriots will continue to rebuild on the fly, though, which is how they've stayed competitive for such a long time.

So where do the Patriots start?

"Depending upon how they look at a couple of players, say defensive end: Cameron Jordan, J.J. Watt. I think they're really good players in the middle of that first round. Both of them could help."

He's tugging at my heartstrings with that defensive end talk. I've long felt that while outside linebacker may be the bigger need, defensive end is the far more sound pick.

We even agree on why that's the case. Almost all of the outside linebacker prospects in this class are defensive end hybrid pass-rush specialist type of players. He names Ryan Kerrigan and Aldon Smith, but that list extends to include Justin Houston, Robert Quinn, Brooks Reed and more.

As for first-round running backs, Casserley hits the nail on the head once again in his assessment of the draft class and also of the Patriots approach to drafting the position.

On the subject of Alabama running back Mark Ingram, Casserley says, "I don't know if they'll rethink their philosophy about taking a running back, but they've won a lot of games without taking a top running back. The running back committee has worked pretty well for them. This draft has a lot of depth in the middle rounds at running back. To me, I'd wait until there to get them."

Value is difficult to gauge in first-round running backs. Who knows how many hits they'll take before they break down, but with running backs taking more hits than virtually any position on the roster, investing a first-round pick in one of them is risky business.

There are so many ways the Patriots could use their picks, but then comes the bigger, more burning question everyone is dying to know the answer to: Will they use their picks, or will they trade them and move down as they have done so frequently in the past? Paul Burmeister points out that the Patriots have had seven second-round picks in the past two years, all of them starting at one point.

Yes, it seems that Belichick would rather pick in the second round than in the first. He understands the value of picking up second-rounders who can contribute as starters on the roster.

Charles Davis adds, "If the Patriots are able, don't be surprised at all to see them get out of [the first round], take 17 and 28, make a deal and move back, and still get guys that they like."

They can move back a round this year, or they can move back a year by stocking up picks for 2012. I think it will be some combination of the two, and Casserley agrees.

"One thing I guarantee they're going to do: They're going to come out of this with something for next year. If Belichick can get a high pick for next year, trading one of these, he'll do that in a minute, he's consistently done that in the past."

To sum up this round table conversation, one thing that's clear is that the Patriots draft for value at every turn. They like moving around the board to get more picks, get guys they like and guys that can contribute heavily.