NBA Playoff Watch: Most Favorable Matchups for Dallas Mavericks
It has been an up-and-down season for the Dallas Mavericks. Early in the season, the Mavericks looked so dominant some were considering them the best team in the West, even with all the success San Antonio was having then.
After a few setbacks, including injuries to some of their best players, the Mavericks fell behind San Antonio and the Los Angeles Lakers in power rankings discussions and will likely remain behind these teams in the rankings at the end of the season.
Assuming the Mavericks hold on to the third seed in the Western Conference, it is almost certain they will face one of these three teams: Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Hornets or Portland Trail Blazers.
The Mavericks have a combined record of four wins and seven losses against these teams which leads to conclude that none of these matchups will be a walk in the park for the Mavericks.
Which team offers the best chance for this Mavericks team to advance to the second round? Pros and Cons for each matchup are presented next.
Memphis Grizzlies
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Regular season record to date: 44-34
Record against Dallas Mavericks: 3-1
These are clear cut facts. The Mavericks do not match up well against the Grizzlies, even without Rudy Gay. Zach Randolph goes for monster nights against Dirk and company, and their defense creates many struggles for the opponent’s offense.
What makes the Grizzlies so tough is the fact that they can run and play in the half court was well. Dallas can also do both, but usually the Mavs use one or the other to exploit their opponent's weakness.
In the regular season, one of the team’s losses came while the team was missing both Caron Butler and Dirk Nowitzki. Another loss came down to a game-winning awkward shot by Zach Randolph against good defense. Even then, the Mavericks are even with this club.
The Grizzlies have the power and talent to climb to the sixth seed, but they are the least likely of these teams to do so. A loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last night definitely supports that argument.
New Orleans Hornets
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Regular reason record to date: 44-33
Record against Dallas Mavericks: 2-1
The New Orleans Hornets are an interesting story. They started the season on fire, then cooled down, then caught fire again. In the latter stretch, they unfortunately lost David West for the season. That did not seem to change the pattern.
In the last few weeks, the Hornets have struggled without West and then gone out for quality wins against contenders. Hence, they are back to challenge for the sixth seed in the West. They have the lightest schedule out of the three teams that will likely face Dallas, and they own the tie-breaker over both the Memphis Grizzlies and the Portland Trail Blazers.
This might be a more favorable matchup for the Mavericks than one might think. One of the Hornet’s wins against the Mavericks was while Dirk was nursing an injury. Also, the Hornets seem to have the tendency to go for bad stretches of games which can be haunting in the playoffs.
Just to make things even more interesting, the clubs meet yet again for the final game of the season were the rosters will likely be the same come playoff time. How will Dallas play this game out if it ends up deciding a potential matchup?
Portland Trail Blazers
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Regular season record to date: 45-33
Record against Dallas Mavericks: 2-2
It is plain and simple. The Mavericks need to stay away from the Portland Trail Blazers come playoff time. The clubs split their regular season meetings, but Dallas only beat the Blazers before the All-Star break. After the break, they have been absolutely owned in consecutive losses.
Offensively, the “should-have-been” All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge dominates down low. In the open court, Rudy Fernandez, Wesley Mathews and Nicolas Batum are as athletic as they come and can stretch their attack to the three-point line. Defensively, they are among the better teams in the league. All across the board, the Blazers are just a more aggressive team.
The Blazers are currently holding on to the sixth spot in the West. Given the way Portland has been playing, it seemed as if that they should be able to hold on to it. Their remaining schedule might indicate otherwise.
They play the Los Angeles Lakers and the Memphis Grizzlies in their last five games, with the Memphis game deciding the possible tie-breaker. They also play Golden State once again in their season finale, a team that just beat them by 21 points last night.
Conclusion
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The Mavericks will have a tough time in the first round regardless of who they play.
The Grizzlies give them problems defensively and showcase a good array of defenders at all positions. The New Orleans Hornets have had the Maverick’s number in a few games, but are still adjusting to the loss of an All-Star and have one more meeting against the Mavericks. The Portland Trail Blazers are the Mavericks' worst nightmare and should be avoided at all costs.
Almost every NBA fan and NBA expert will say that the playoffs are a different monster. That may be true, but one cannot stray too far away from lessons learned through the regular season. So far this season, the Mavericks should be hoping they play the New Orleans Hornets in the first round.
